New North Carolina poll (NYT/Siena, A+): Biden +4, Cunningham +4

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[Statistical]

1. Good news but the amount of undecided is huge compared to other states & nationally.

The details of the poll aren't available yet but if we assume ~3% third party that means still 9% undecided in NC. Most polls are 3% to 5%.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. NYT/Siena polls typically have higher number of undecideds

That aspect is not particularly unusual or concerning with the presidential numbers. But the Cunningham situation obviously changed with the sexting scandal. His net approval dropped from 46-29 to 40-41. That's undoubtedly contributing to the 22% undecideds. Instead of shifting to Tillis it looks like some Cunningham leaners now list themselves as undecided.

It's still a decent position. But this race should have been all but over. Other senate races moved in our favor based on Trump's debate performance. One GOP pollster said that debate caused 3-4 point shifts in senate races all over the country. But instead of Cunningham benefiting from that his own issues stalled progress and moved the race against the national grain.

[kurtcagle]

2. Not necessarily a bad thing

That there is a 9% undecided contingent in NC, traditionally a Reddish state at this point, means that support for Trump is VERY soft there, and that Graham is likely more vulnerable than he appears in polling.

[Bleacher Creature]

3. If this holds, it means that Trump will need to win two thirds of the undecideds to win the state.

And since a chunk of the remaining vote will likely go to third parties, that percentage is probably higher. I'd take those odds if I'm Biden.