Survey USA : Indiana : Trump 49% - Biden 42%

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

Interesting...........

Indiana Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 49% (-7)
Biden (D): 42% (+5)

SurveyUSA / October 13, 2020 / n=685 / Online

(% chg w 2016 Party Vote)

from +20 down to +9.............................

[roamer65]

1. 11 point shift.

Good news.

[BootinUp]

2. Indiana, sigh. I get the feeling they've been

Through a brain drain, exodus or something. Why so different than other rust belt states?

[RGTIndy]

8. There are a lot of reasons

I'm from Indiana and there are a lot of reasons it is more red than the rest of the Rust Belt. 1. it is traditionally Republican, so even a (relatively) large city like Indianapolis has more often than not in the last 50 years had Republican mayors. The default position here has always been Republican 2. It only has one major city, and that city isn't the size of Chicago. So basically, if Chicago had the population of Indianapolis, Illinois would be exactly like Indiana. 3. Southern Indiana has always looked south in its culture. The vast majority of people who settled in southern Indiana came from Kentucky, so "redneck culture" is very prominent and Indiana is probably at least slightly more racist than other rust belt states. 4. Even moderately large cities like Evansville and Ft. Wayne, have a lower minority population than a lot of similarly sized cities in other states. 5. Evangelicalism is much higher than the national average in Indiana. 6. As you mentioned, brain drain (and the crushing of organized labor) contribute as well.

Sorry that ended up more long winded than I intended!

[demosincebirth]

10. The KKK was also very active in Indiana, for many years in the first part of the last century.

[RGTIndy]

12. Yes, but that really crashed and burned in 1927

So it absolutely shows the racism of Indiana at that time, and obviously that didn't just disappear, but the Klan hasn't had any political sway in Indiana for almost 100 years. I don't think rural Indiana today is more racists than rural Illinois or rural Ohio, but since a larger percentage of Indiana's population is rural, that racism is more pronounced at the ballot box.

[get the red out]

11. You are welcome for the Rednecks!

We have plenty more to spare down here in KY! Wish we could send y'all some more! (I completely empathize, of course, MAGA overload is Hell).

[BootinUp]

13. Appreciate ur post. Nt

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Even a lot of northern Indiana has Kentucky roots

When I lived in Elkhart, before the days of the rustbelt, a lot of the factory workers and their kids had noticably Southern accents. Their grandparents had emigrated up there, presumably for work.

[llmart]

3. I don't put much store in online polls.

n/t

[greenjar_01]

4. This is a disastrous number for Trump

He'll win the state, and probably by more than this, but to even have to cast a glance in the direction of Indiana means a campaign in total free fall.

[Norbert]

5. dump won Indiana by 19 points in 2016.

If this is even close to being accurate it is horrible news for the impeached one.

[qazplm135]

6. makes sense

not generating Obama levels of AA turnout in Indiana, but more than Clinton, and a few more moderate Whites than Clinton, so he basically halves the gap between Obama 08 and Clinton 16.

[Aristus]

7. That's okay.

I didn't really think Biden was going to win out in Nowheresville…

[RGTIndy]

9. Indiana is winnable, Obama proved that.

but it takes a perfect storm. Overwhelming urban/democratic turnout and a demoralized republican base. I think we will get close to Obama 08 turnout levels, but unfortunately the Trump base is anything but demoralized. They are fanatical.

[spanone]

15. The state that gave American mike pence

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Indiana is not a lost cause, with fewer than 40% conservatives

This is a very logical margin for Biden. It didn't make a heck of a lot of sense to prioritize Indiana in 2020, due to comparative lack of urban voters, and high number of working class rural whites. But the state was always going to more competitive than its reputation, because of that conservative percentage that was only 38% in 2016 and dropped to 36% in 2008 when Obama barely won.

Frankly I'll be annoyed if that conservative percentage dips to 36 or 37% again this time, because it would mean the state probably was winnable.

I isolated Indiana and Kansas as the two states that were under the radar due to sub-40% conservatives. But Kansas has superior educational numbers, better than the national average instead of worse like Indiana. That factor can't be ignored anymore.

[BlueNProud]

17. Ignorant Hoosier assholes

[es466]

18. I've heard IN called the "Mississippi of the Midwest"