To Repeat - Prof Alan Lichtman's prediction of a Biden win (7 of 13 indicators point to Biden)

[Roland99]

He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020.
Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

He calls it “The Keys to the White House.” And like some other politics these days, there’s a Russian involved. “In 1981, I met Vladimir Keilis-Borok. Vladimir turned to me and said, we are going to collaborate.” By the way, Vladimir wasn’t a historian or a politician. He was a leading expert in predicting earthquakes. “This point, I thought the guy was either nuts or KGB.” He wasn’t. “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.” So they got to work. “We looked at every presidential election from 1860 to 1980.” What they found were 13 keys. Only two of which have anything to do with the traits of the candidates. Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election.

...

What do Allan’s 13 keys predict for 2020? “And remember, an answer of ‘true’ always favors the re-election of the White House party. If six or more of the keys are false, you get a political earthquake.”
OK, No. 1: The White House party gained House seats between midterm elections. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018. So false.”
No. 2: There is no primary contest for the White House party. “No Republicans challenged Trump for his renomination. So true.”
No. 3: The incumbent seeking. The sitting president is running for re-election. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down, so true.”
Four: There is no third-party challenger. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.” This is looking pretty good for Trump so far.
No. 5: The short-term economy is strong. “The pandemic has pushed the economy into recession. False.”
Six: Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms. “The pandemic has caused such negative G.D.P. growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”
No. 7: The White House has made major changes to national policy. “Through his big tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era. So true.”
No. 8: There is no social unrest during the term. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order. So false.”
No. 9: The White House is untainted by scandal. “My favorite key. As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus he has plenty of other scandals. So false.”
No. 10: The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump. But so far, true.”
11: The White House has a major success abroad. “While Trump hasn’t had any big splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either. So false.”
12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic. “Donald Trump is a great showman. But he only appeals to a narrow slice of the American people. And as a result, false.”
13: The challenger is uncharismatic. “Biden is a decent empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic. So true.”

That means — “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.” That’s Allan Lichtman’s prediction. And Allan Lichtman is always right. “Don’t just take my word for it. There are forces at play outside the keys — voter suppression, Russian meddling. It’s up to you the voters to decide the future of our democracy. So get out and vote. Vote in person. Vote by mail. As Abraham Lincoln said, the best way to predict the future is to choose it.”

Video at the link, too

[Chainfire]

1. This assumes a normal electoral process

An acceptance of the vote. This will not be a normal electoral process and the President and the Party will not accept the voter's decisions, unless, of course, the vote tally favors the president.

We are clearing new ground here, history can not predict this future.

[Roland99]

2. a key will be some "red" swing states (OH/AZ and maybe even FL)

When Biden takes those, any claims of malfeasance will have little traction.