IMO, it may all come down to Pennsylvania (and Great Lakes states too)

[nitpicker]

IMO, it may all come down to Pennsylvania (and Great Lakes states too)

Forget FL, GA, NC, OH and IA (and maybe AZ too). IMO, one has to add 5 points to the Repug poll numbers to account for those that stubbornly won’t take pollsters’ calls but will go vote in November.

Given that, to win Biden must take the Great Lakes states AND PA, along with the more solidly blue states, to arrive at about 278 electoral votes.

Lose PA? The most likely “chance” for Biden is to ride Mark Kelly’s apparent coattails and win AZ. But that gets him only 269, throwing this into the House, where each state has one vote, and more state delegations are collectively majority-Repug than majority-Democratic. So Biden loses there.

There’s a reason why Biden chose to do his “town hall” in Philadelphia.

[Thekaspervote]

1. If you add Nebraska 1, the small liberal area around Omaha that puts him at 270

But, the scenario you are describing is one with low turn out, that isn’t the case here

[yellowcanine]

2. No do not forget Fl, GA, NC, OH, IA and AZ. Joe has a clear shot in all of those.

And he is not going to lose PA either.

[Penn Voter]

3. This Pennsylvania Voter

has placed votes for all democrats. My ballot was mailed last week.

[GulfCoast66]

4. WTF are you talking about? Forget Florida.

Should I forget Obama won here both times?

There is a blue wave happening here we did not see at all in 16. Or 18 for that matter.