18 days to go - my nightly home stretch election polling data update. Holding steady.
Last edited Fri Oct 16, 2020, 09:06 PM - Edit history (1)
Happy birthday to my younger brother edition (he is not on DU - sadly he is a conservative)
Data slightly adjusted at 9 PM eastern
538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
tonight - Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Rock steady for 5 days
Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/
Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
tonight - Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
(note the EV estimate has fallen since Oct 12 but is now in line with 538 and Economist)
The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
tonight - Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
election day estimate Joe 54%, trump 46%
Rock steady for 5 days
For the fifth night in a row, sleep well, all.
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