New Montana Senate poll (RMG Research, B/C): Bullock -2

[brooklynite]

With two weeks to go until the election, a once safe Senate seat for the Republicans is a toss-up today. The latest PoliticalIQ poll shows Republican Senator Steve Daines attracting 49% of the vote the Democratic challenger Steve Bullock is two-points back at 47%.

That 2-point lead is well within the survey’s margin of error. The PoliticalIQ poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 1% of Montana Likely Voters plan to vote for someone other than the two leading Senate contenders, with 4% unsure.

The Senate race became competitive the earlier in the year when Bullock, Montana’s current Governor, threw his hat into the ring. It is now close enough that it could go either way, with the result likely dependent on voter turnout. Given the difficulty of projecting turnout amidst an unprecedented pandemic, Rasmussen’s PoliticalIQ polls release three separate turnout models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout. This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.

In the case of the Montana Senate race, a Strong Republican Turnout would result in Daines widening his lead over Bullock to 50% to 45%. But a Strong Democratic Turnout results in Bullock taking a slight edge, 48% to 47%.

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/19/montana-senate-race-daines-r-49-bullock-d-47/

[GemDigger]

1. I know a lot of people, including myself who are NOT participating in poll calls.

All of us are Bullock people. I hope there is enough of us.

[2naSalit]

2. I don't answer calls from numbers not in mmy contacts list...

Therefore, I would not be polled. I voted for Bullock, of course. I am hoping there are enough if us to get him a bigger victory than many expect.

[GemDigger]

5. My landline had 38 calls in the past week. I clean out the numbers once a week

I imagine that at least 30 of them are poll callers and the other 8 telling me social security wants my ass or the IRS wants my ass or my 14 year old car needs to do something or other. My cell phone gets very few calls, thank goodness.

in 2016 I answered every single call. Not this year. Only one got me and that is because the phone was next to me and I picked it up without looking. I was lucky that it was a D based survey otherwise I would have hung up on them.

[Statistical]

4. Pollers compensate for demographics.

If they get less responses from black americans, or democrats, or progressives, or people under the age of 20 or whatever they keep calling until they get a sample large enough for that sub population.

Then they take those raw results marked up by demographics and apply them to a statistical model (i.e. 38% Democratic, 32% Republicans, 30% Independent).

Now I would point out this is Rasmussen which is poorly rated and leans red so down 2 is a decent result. Montana is going to be a hard fight though. Pretty sure it will come down to the wire. Other than one outlier all the polls have shown a statistical tie (+2, -1, even +1, -2).

[GemDigger]

7. I didn't know that and it makes sense on why a few of the numbers call every day.

Thank you for pointing that out to me.

[Statistical]

8. Gald I could help. It is a VERY common misconception.

I use to do statistical analysis (hence my username). I just sling code now.

[lagomorph777]

3. It's a Rassmussen poll. Add 5 points to Bullock to correct their bias.

[2naSalit]

6. +1