Nate Silver: Biden's lead is steady. You have to squint/cherry-pick to see a Trump comeback.

[highplainsdem]

That's summarizing these tweets:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[TreasonousBastard]

1. I sincerely hope so.

[Scurrilous]

2. K&R

[dchill]

3. I squinted. I see nothing.

[helpisontheway]

4. But he specifically says national polls..I hope he says that about the battleground polls..

I feel good about Michigan and Wisconsin. Still a little worried about PA. I don’t know what happened to that state. Trump has a hold on a bunch of the voters there..smh

[lagomorph777]

5. Nate has Biden at 88% chance in PA and WI; 92% in MI.

[helpisontheway]

9. WOW..Now that makes me feel much better!! Nt

[Amishman]

11. PA is drifting red overall the past 5 years

Republicans gaining ground in voter registration steadily.

Not going to be enough this time around, suburban moderates and independents aren't backing Trump this time around.

Plus in 2016 a lot of rural seldom voters turned out. They went back under their rock in 2018.

It will be something to watch going forward.

I think Biden was the only candidate this cycle able to deliver PA.

[cbdo2007]

13. Biden is solidly ahead in most battleground states - 538.com has all this info

And just like the national polls, the state polls are looking very good as well.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Trump has never led Biden in any of the averaging polls...

[Turbineguy]

7. Nostradamus will predict

a Biden or Trump win when it's all over.

I'll wait until I see it.

[USALiberal]

8. Great!! nt

[zipplewrath]

10. What no one knows

I respect Nate's work. But his problem is the same problem everyone else has. No one knows who is going to actually show up and vote. The pollsters are specifically unsure in this election because of the pandemic. It is exacerbated by the concern that large numbers of mail in ballots may be rejected over technical issues such as bad/missing signatures, missing envelopes, or incorrect markings. And there have been concerns that there is far more dislocation than understood. That is there are people living in different places because they are living with parents or other "pods". I know of a couple that are here in Florida instead of Texas. It isn't clear that they will vote at all, nor where they are legally allowed to vote.

[cbdo2007]

14. That isn't his problem, he is doing the best he can with what he has.

He is just pointing out that if you look at the 2016 polls, Clinton and Trump kept going closer and farther apart from each other, and Trump even was ahead part of the time and Clinton was only up by like 2.5 points right before the election....yet Biden has been consistently ahead by 8-10 points for months now and is actually moving farther away from Trump.

Looking back at 2016 it is easy to see now how Trump won (besides the cheating obviously) but it was much, much closer than it is this year.

True though, we need to make sure we get as many people out to vote as possible, but the voter issues you describe don't seem to be things that would impact Dem turnout more than Repube turnout, so they the polls should still be directionally accurate.

[zipplewrath]

16. Mail in ballots

There is some concern that democrats will more likely vote by mail in ballot and the ballot rejection will be high.

[cbdo2007]

17. I haven't seen any evidence that democrats are more likely to vote by mail in ballot.

I do agree that if one of these things disproportionately effects blue areas, then we could definitely say that it will hurt Biden.

But just anecdotally, I did early/absentee voting this week due to COVID fears and expected it to be all Biden people and it was mostly Trump people.

I think Trump is trying to incite massive fraud both to help himself and Biden, because then he can say that there was fraud and the election results are not real. That it helps one side of the other isn't really his concern as he would have much less control over that impact.

[Klaralven]

12. 538 has Trump 12, Biden 88 now.

[linda52]

15. The DU chicken brigade will find something ''concerning'' /nt

[msongs]

18. no doubt president hillary clinton agrees with 538 showing her likely winner nt