IL-17: Bustos moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Democratic
Bustos was an appealing choice for DCCC chair this cycle in part because she represents a working-class seat Trump won by a point in 2016. But her new role also complicates her politics back home. Esther Joy King, a 34-year-old Army reservist and attorney, has raised $1.4 million and blasts Bustos for heading up "Nancy Pelosi's political operation in DC" while posing on tractors in ads back home.
Bustos took 62 percent against a token GOP opponent in 2018, but a new Tarrance Group poll for King's campaign finds Bustos leading just 49 percent to 44 percent. Democrats admit Trump is doing relatively well here and the race is closer than in the past. Part of Bustos's challenge could be that it's not easy for the powerful incumbent to attack a 34-year-old female veteran opponent and first-time candidate.
Ultimately, it's unlikely either party will spend here because Democrats don't want to look like they're panicking about their own chair and Republicans have so much defense to play elsewhere. Moreover, the district is covered by the cost-prohibitive Quad Cities market as well as Peoria and Rockford. Bustos is still likely to win with a reduced margin, but King could be setting herself up for a more favorable environment in 2022.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-12-races-move-almost-all-towards-democrats
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