NC-09: Bishop moves from 'Likely' yo 'Lean' Republican
Everyone forgot about this district after 2018's notorious absentee ballot scandal and the hyper-expensive September 2019 do-over election, which Bishop won by two points. But in a late 2019 court-ordered remap, the GOP legislature inexplicably made the Mecklenburg (Charlotte) portion of this seat more Democratic. It's gotten little notice, but under the new lines, Bishop most likely would have lost the 2019 race.
Unlike in 2018 and 2019, when Democrat Dan McCready raised millions, Democrats barely have a candidate this time: Cynthia Wallace, an African-American party activist with a background in finance and farming, has raised just $575,000. But Bishop took on a ton of negative ads last year, and the Charlotte Observer just endorsed Wallace and scathingly cast Bishop as a far-right "bathroom bill" sponsor engaged in "stunts."
Trump carried the newly redrawn seat 53 percent to 43 percent in 2016, but anything touching Mecklenburg County increasingly looks like a disaster area for the GOP. Bishop is currently running ads featuring an African-American couple praising him for securing COVID small-business relief. The race is flying under the radar, but Democrats' lack of spending doesn't necessarily prohibit Wallace from pulling off an upset.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-12-races-move-almost-all-towards-democrats