Podcast of EV and VBM in FL. Miami-Dade Democrats are not showing up at the rate we need right now

[OrlandoDem2]

Come on, Democratic Party.

If you’re a numbers person, this is for you.

Link to tweet

?s=21

[obamanut2012]

1. Who is this guy? All I can find out is that he's an English teacher

What are his creds? His background? He has literally 70 followers on his YT channel. Prove to me he is legit as Sabato, Cooke, etc., because I can't find any info that he knows any more than my neighbor about this. Hell, my neighbor is in the PBC Dem Party leadership, so she knows more than this guy, and she seems cautiously optimistic.

on edit: I thought he was at least based in SOFL, but he is a teacher in the Midwest. I will listen to national experts like Sabato, and my local SOFL pols on this. Especially since we have zero idea of this guy's agenda or bias, just his pinned post asking for Paypal money.

[OrlandoDem2]

2. I've followed him since 2018 and his Twitter bio indicates he

was a PhD candidate.

I’ve followed since 2018 and he was among the earliest to indicate on Election Day that turnout in SoFla was not enough to put Gillum over the top.

You’re not going to get this kind of analysis out of Cook or Sabato yet. Just give it a listen. This guy knows the state of Florida very well and breaks down the county data quite nicely.

[Cicada]

3. A Cook Report guy says Trump is outperforming among Hispanics in South Florida

Compared to 2016 Trump is doing worse among whites in swing districts in general but better among Hispanics in South Florida, Southern part of Texas and Arizona. So I think this report is plausible.

[OrlandoDem2]

4. It's definitely plausible. Miami-Dade Democrats need to GOTV and bring 10 people. Now.

The GOP is going to come. They showed up in stunning force in 2016 and 2018 in Florida.

I’ll be glad to be wrong but if this trend continues we may not win FL.

[octoberlib]

5. Is the Florida Democratic Party good on

GOTV? My mom lives in SC and they are doing an excellent job. Don’t know if it’ll be enough but they are working their butts off. I know Bloomberg donated a ton of money to Florid’s GOTV effort. Are they using it?

[OrlandoDem2]

6. Objectively speaking, The Fla Dems have not won many state elections since 2000.

Obama twice, Bill Nelson twice (2006, 2012).

We’ve won a couple things like Agricultural Commissioner and CFO.

No gubernatorial races won by Dems since 1994. Of course there was the fiasco of 2000 but we are not as purple as people think and I believe the Fla Dems are partly to blame.

[octoberlib]

8. I've heard other people say this.

[OrlandoDem2]

9. The results don't lie. Just look at the data.

[LisaL]

7. Not showing up how? In person?

Florida issued a huge number of absentee ballots. A lot of people are voting by mail.