TGIF! 11 days to go...my nightly home stretch election polling update (added 2016 comparison data)

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Fri Oct 23, 2020, 11:43 PM - Edit history (3)

Just got back from a long hike with my wife and two doggies in the nearby Pisgah National Forest - peak foliage! Thought I'd get a head start on this now. I will post a few pics in the lounge from our hike this evening.

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
today - Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.

Rock steady for 12 days

Another important number - Trump approve today is down to 42.5, disapprove 53.7 - an 11.2 gap. (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
today - Oct 23 - Joemetamagin +5.5, est 358 EVs

pretty steady for 12 days, with the metamargin about 1 point lower than 12 days ago but EVs roughly steady, just bobbing around within a narrow range for the period.

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
today - Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.1%

and, again, quite steady over the last 12 days.

For the 12th day in a row, no sign at all of race tightening. Enjoy the rest of your Friday - and let's have a great weekend.

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 346, 358 and 343. Very consistent.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538

11 days before the election was Oct 29. Hillary was at 81% chance, 324 EVs, 49 to 44 percent popular vote, 5 point separation - and this was the day after the Comey letter surfaced - her numbers were starting to drop. Joe has 22 more EVs, 6 percent higher chance, and 53 to 45 percent popular vote - 8 point separation, with Joe well over 50.

then...tomorrow and until election day - vote! help the campaign - phone bank - do whatever! Energize!

[Sherman A1]

1. KnR

[MLAA]

2. Thank you! Sweet dreams tonight! May you have visions

Of beautiful tomatoes, onions, squash and peppers dance in your head 🙂

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. Thank you for your outstanding work, and off to the Greatest Page!

[Chichiri]

4. This is a great resource, thanks!

[USALiberal]

5. Kick!! nt

[fierywoman]

6. Thank you for your work, which calms me.

[beachbumbob]

7. My perspective, nothing indicates that trump will even get 44% of

the vote if we are to believe that he has lost support of more women, more men, more white voters based on 2016 46% take of the vote no way he gets close to 44%. He has been mired in the 42% approval range for most of his presidency. With projections of 150-165 million total vote cast, he will lose by 15-20 million votes. This is not a close election under any scenario including battleground states

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. may it be so! I am optimistic.

[beachbumbob]

9. Look at data, trumps current approval ratings and national polls

then factor in supposed lost support of trump, seems to me 42-44% is his max national percentage as his voter base has not increased in any notable way in 4 years. So if 46% was his take in 2016, then logic says he can't even reach that. But throw in the expansion of the democratic base, the flight from trump, and this is a hallmark wave election like 2018. Of course GOTV gotta happen and we see the EV results where massive outpouring to vote the bums out.

[CottonBear]

10. Thank you!

I’m phone banking for my Democratic Senatorial candidate tomorrow!

[NRaleighLiberal]

11. a night crew kick

[NRaleighLiberal]

12. last kick

[herding cats]

13. Thank you for keeping up with this old friend.

I've been reading them and appreciate the perspective. I'm on pins and needles right now. I desperately need this calm sanity.

[Sugarcoated]

14. More good news!

Happy to kick!