Jon Ralston's latest Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/23/20

[RandySF]

Updated, 10:25 PM, 10/23/20

GOP won Clark by 3,500 in early voting for the third straight day -- won by 3,000 on Tuesday. Don't have mail yet.

GOP won Washoe by 1,800, but lost mail so gained only 700 on Dems and trail by 8,300.

Perspective: So net loss of 4,200 today in urban Nevada by Dems, but no Clark mail counted yet. And, of course, we know the Dems will lose by thousands in rural Nevada today.

At this time in 2016, after one week of early voting, the statewide Dem lead was 28,500. It's going to be significantly higher than that this year, probably in the high 40s. It ended at 45K in 2016.

At this time in 2016, the Clark Dem firewall was about 40,000 votes. This year: About 60,000. It ended at 73,000 after two weeks in Clark four years ago.

At the end of a week in Washoe in 2016, the Dems had a 2,500-vote lead. They are triple that pace this year. In 2016, after two weeks, the lead was 1,000.

But I repeat what I have been saying: We have never seen an election like this with the GOP winning early voting by these margins every day and the Dems mailing it in as no party ever has. It's much less predictable, and the comparisons to 2016 may not be apt.

Soon we will know if patterns are really patterns. Still rather be the Dems with those large leads, but this is far from over.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[grantcart]

1. Tks for posting

[Thekaspervote]

2. John Ralston certainly is the go to guy for everything dem politics in NV

I think he’s finding himself in the same spot other political wonks are this year. The votes are there but the habits of the voters in NV have been turned on the it’s head making it harder to read the tea leaves.

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political has said several times not to try and determine who’s winning by looking at early voting. I know he’s been looking at isolated districts that went for trump and says support for him is collapsing, but isn’t calling it a wrap.