538 National Poll average tightens to 8.7 points BUT

[My Pet Orangutan]

BUT - the tightening from the 9s is explained by 538 adding in a new Rasmussen poll which has Trump +1

AND the probabilities remain unchanged: Biden 87%, Trump 12%.

538 National Poll Average: Biden 51.8% , Trump 43.1%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[beachbumbob]

1. trump is +1 on planet Z, nowhere on this earth, a total bust job of a poll, but who really cares

[My Pet Orangutan]

5. and Planet Claire

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Expect FOX to lead with this Rasmussen Poll

It's completely silly and ridiculous.

[beachbumbob]

6. what else do they have? The GOP lives on lies and magical thinking. I got no problem with it

[honest.abe]

3. There are too many polling operations that are fraudulent, especially RW ones.

Faking numbers to push their preferred candidate. I really wonder about the future of the polling business. Few will take them seriously.

[lagomorph777]

4. Assmuffin has Trump at +1?

That's a pretty ballsy move. I guess they're all-in; they know their business is about to dry up.

[uponit7771]

7. This is horrible 538, that rAssMussen poll is horrible. Why count it at all !?!?!

[My Pet Orangutan]

8. They include both skewed D and R polls

Data for Progress, for example, on the Democratic side,

But RassPutin polls are more fraudulent than biased close to the GE.

[uponit7771]

10. That's not good either, cause the R polls can "skew" as hard as they want to. Just count credible...

... polls and not flat earther ones

[jcgoldie]

17. They count it but they adjust it by several points for house bias

So if the rasmussan poll says trump +1 they count Biden +5 for example if ras has an R +6 bias. They also weight it less if its a poor pollster.

[marylandblue]

9. 538 is adamant on counting all polls and not ignoring outliers.

In statistics it's tempting to reject daya that "doesn't fit" but it's usually a mistake.

[Doodley]

11. Rasmussen also has Trump at 52% approval. Expect the Rasmussen numbers to swing towards Joe

in the next week, so they avoid humiliation.

[My Pet Orangutan]

14. This is their be kind to the GOP week.

They do it every cycle, then. as Nate Silver says, 'all the polls magically converge'.

[samsingh]

12. why would 538 add such a bullshit poll?

[My Pet Orangutan]

13. See

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14362437

[Thekaspervote]

15. Really! The poll aggregator for the Economist won't use their poll

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Nate talked yesterday about this week's polls being out of whack, subject to "herding"

Herding is apparently a pollster’s tilting results to reflect existing results rather than changing trends. He also said Rasmussen and Trafalgar have their own partisan agendas they are pushing.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden’s avg lead jump back into the 9’s if the other non-partisan polls reflect herding this week.