So if my math is correct in PA

[Drahthaardogs]

There are about 8,700,000 registered voters. Democrats have returned 1,193,887 ballots Republicans 355,317 and NA 152,000.

Democratic lead should be right around 850,000 (Probably a bit more) votes. There are roughly 7,000,000 votes left. Republicans will have to capture approximately 63% of the remaining votes.

That’s assuming 100% turnout. Highest turnout in last 30 years has been 82%. It’s usually around 70%. Percent they must capture of the remaining vote goes up!

It looks like we are winning!

[BlueIdaho]

1. You are assuming every "republican" is voting for Trump

That’s a mistake.

[Jose Garcia]

12. It's also a mistake to assume that every Democrat is voting for Biden

Trump did very well in areas like Hazleton, despite there being far more Democrats than Republicans. Ben Bradlee wrote an interesting book about it:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079L5HTR9/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

[DeminPennswoods]

2. Registered voters topped 9M after the last

day to register last week.

You can go to the PA department of state and download the registration by county if you want to do more in depth analysis.

[Hoyt]

3. The pundits keep saying GOPers will vote in-person. We need to keep voting by whatever legal means.

[Drahthaardogs]

4. I don't think 6 of every ten voters on election day

Is a vote for Trump. I just don’t believe it

[edhopper]

5. Dems are voting in person

we are just doing it early.

[LiberalArkie]

7. I don't think the Trumpers will heavily turn out. They will be very afraid of being close to a black

person. That black person might have the China flu.

[NewJeffCT]

13. In a lot of those rural areas of PA

people of color are few & far between. Those are the Trump areas.

[dem4decades]

6. Florida seniors should be made aware that do to the spread of the virus they may not get a hospital

bed.

[Trumpdumper]

8. Your math is not correct.

Assume from early vote that Biden is about 800K ahead in early vote. If 7 million more end up voting, Trump would need a little less than 4 million of those to win, or about 56 or 57 percent of what's left.

[Drahthaardogs]

9. Biden is up 838,000 at least

Probably more.

[TheRealNorth]

10. The early voting numbers seem kind of low in PA

Wisconsin has already counted 1.3 million ballots (mail-in ballots + early voting). And that is considering WI has less than half the population of Pennsylvania.

[Drahthaardogs]

11. Do they have a breakout of D vs R?

I cannot find it if they do