Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/26/20 - 2:20 p.m.
SOS has updated with some rurals and I have added what we know about Washoe/Clark:
735K or thereabouts have voted; that’s 43 percent. (In 2016, total early/mail voting after two weeks was 780K, or about 54 percent of active voters; to match that this year, with a quarter of a million new statewide voters, that total would have to be 931K.)
If overall turnout is 80 percent – slightly above 2016 – that means more than half the vote is in. If it’s 85 percent, it’s almost exactly half.
The Dem firewall in Clark is 71K; the statewide lead is about 58K and that Washoe lead is just under 7.5K. GOP up in rurals by 20.5K. So not much change.
The Clark lead is 14 percent, slightly down from last update, still 3 points above voter reg; the Washoe lead is just under 5 percent, or 5 points above reg.
Here’s what the 2016/2020 Clark comparison looks like – remember that the lead is not as great as it might seem because of the 200K additional county voters, so 71K in 2020 would be about 57K in 2016. Still ahead of pace.
So where are we now with half of the vote or so in?
Dems are doing slightly better than 2016 so far, with all the usual caveats – mailing it in, odd patterns, possible GOP Election Day surge.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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