General Discussion

Johnny2X2X

(19,193 posts) Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:10 AM Oct 2020

538 Forecast goes to 89-11 for Biden

A new high! And Iowa is now blue. Poll average is Biden +9.2. 89-11 means they think Trump has a 1 in 9 chance of winning.

In 2016, 6 days out, Hillary was +3.1 points in the polling average and 67-33 in the Polls Plus forecast on 538. At this point Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning in 2016. His chances are 1/3 of what he had in 2016.

13 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 Forecast goes to 89-11 for Biden (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 OP

Looking for 95% by Sunday malaise Oct 2020 #1

Looking for 100% by Tuesday SheltieLover Oct 2020 #4

Love it malaise Oct 2020 #7

Lol SheltieLover Oct 2020 #9

95 is what I'm looking for too Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #6

WOW! This is GREAT! Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #2

Democrats winning the senate bumps up to 74 in 100 Norbert Oct 2020 #3

Great news!!! SheltieLover Oct 2020 #5

I want a win for Joe called at 10p EST! NightWatcher Oct 2020 #8

Me too! SheltieLover Oct 2020 #10

Is that 11% the chances safeinOhio Oct 2020 #11

The model doesn't take into account cheating Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #12

The Economist has it at 96% to 4% and 356 EV. After 2016 I am still worried doc03 Oct 2020 #13

malaise

(269,219 posts)

1. Looking for 95% by Sunday

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:11 AM

Oct 2020

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)

4. Looking for 100% by Tuesday

Reply to malaise (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:17 AM

Oct 2020

malaise

(269,219 posts)

7. Love it

Reply to SheltieLover (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:23 AM

Oct 2020

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)

9. Lol

Reply to malaise (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:26 AM

Oct 2020

Schadenfreude is sweet!

Johnny2X2X

(19,193 posts)

6. 95 is what I'm looking for too

Reply to malaise (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:18 AM

Oct 2020

A few weeks ago, Nate Silver said that if the election were that day his model would likely be at 95-5, very little has changed in the race since then, except for now we know that it's going to be a really heavy turnout year.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)

2. WOW! This is GREAT!

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:13 AM

Oct 2020

Norbert

(6,041 posts)

3. Democrats winning the senate bumps up to 74 in 100

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:16 AM

Oct 2020

I am trying to remain reserved but it is tough doing so with all the good news,

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)

5. Great news!!!

Reply to Norbert (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:17 AM

Oct 2020

NightWatcher

(39,343 posts)

8. I want a win for Joe called at 10p EST!

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:26 AM

Oct 2020

Trump can't litigate and asswhoopin.

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)

10. Me too!

Reply to NightWatcher (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:27 AM

Oct 2020

Then repukes will be filing cases to extend ballot deadlines.

safeinOhio

(32,736 posts)

11. Is that 11% the chances

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:31 AM

Oct 2020

his cheating might work? That's all he has left.

Johnny2X2X

(19,193 posts)

12. The model doesn't take into account cheating

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:33 AM

Oct 2020

The 11% is the chance of the polls being way off and/or something crazy happening in the next 6 days. When it gets to 95-5 it will have almost no risk of a Joe loss in it, 1 in 20 is very small.

doc03

(35,389 posts)

13. The Economist has it at 96% to 4% and 356 EV. After 2016 I am still worried

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 08:36 AM

Oct 2020

Trump will win or somehow steal the election.

Reply to this discussion