Democrats got a big head start with voting in NC, but Republicans are catching up

[RandySF]

When the polls opened for early voting on Oct. 15, more than half a million North Carolinians had already cast their ballots by mail, and a majority of them were registered Democrats.

But since the polls have opened, Republicans have narrowed the gap. Registered Republicans accounted for just 18% of votes cast on Oct. 15; as of Wednesday, that portion had climbed to nearly 31%, in line with the percentage of North Carolina voters who are registered Republicans.

“Over the course of the in-person voting period, we’ve seen the proportions look more like the overall electorate,” says Tomas Lopez, executive director of Democracy North Carolina, a nonpartisan group that works to increase voter turnout. “So you certainly are seeing less of that kind of a partisan skew as time goes on.”

Registered Democrats have cast 1.4 million votes, compared to 1.1 million by Republicans and nearly 1.1 million by unaffiliated voters. Democrats are historically more likely to turn out for in-person early voting; Hillary Clinton received 84,074 more votes during early in-person voting than Donald Trump in 2016, even as she lost North Carolina when the Election Day vote favored Trump.

This year, Democratic candidates from Joe Biden on down have been encouraging their supporters to vote early. Which is why some Republicans are encouraged that the turnout gap isn’t larger.




https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article246771767.html#storylink=cpy

[TwilightZone]

1. That's going to happen in a lot of places.

I'm afraid that it's going to cause some serious consternation 'round these parts. I hope that people are better prepared for it than they might appear.

[LisaL]

2. It's inevitable. If democrats run big margins voting early, republicans are going to eat into the

margins when they come out to vote.

[TwilightZone]

5. Agreed.

[Bad Thoughts]

3. Exaggerated

Dems have been maintaining a 300,000 vote lead rather consistently. The fact that the percentages seem to be catching up is simply circumstantial.

[TwilightZone]

6. No, it's simple math.

Example:

300k out of 3m = 10%
300k out of 6m = 5%

The percentage is changing because as the total numbers grow, 300k is a smaller fraction of the whole.

The lead, as a percentage, is indeed dropping if the gap remains the same.

[Bad Thoughts]

7. Yes, I know why the percentages are changing

We don't elect on the basis of the percentage, but the actual number of votes, and Dems have maintained a steady lead.

[Blue_true]

13. If the gap remains in Biden's favor, it doesn't matter that the size

of that gap relative to the total vote decreases. At the end, Biden wins with more votes, even if it is only 20,000 more.

[chuckperth]

8. Independents

We also have the advantage with independents. 18-29yo voters are showing up in huge numbers in NC, they also happen to be disproportionately registered Independent and they favor Biden by a large margin.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Those totals look pretty much like the NC polls. If polls hold true, unaffiliated voters

Overwhelmingly are going for Biden

[blm]

9. Here in NC a lot of younger voters registered as Unaffiliated.

The Unaffiliated voters are breaking heavily for Dems.

[dsc]

10. I know full well the plural of anecdote isn't statistics but

I am a voter who nearly always votes early, in person but this time I got a mail in ballot, and returned it before early voting. I would imagine more than a few Democratic voters did this.

[Dem2]

11. Same headlines every cycle

We're just going to have to wait until they start counting to really know what's up

[AlexSFCA]

12. and a good fraction of those registered republicans may vote biden