Polling Averages are Strong Using Only B or Better 538 Polls Over the Last Week

[Chasing Dreams]

No cherrypicking here. These are the averages using only polls that ended Sunday 10/25 or later. Looks pretty good to me on this All Hallows' Eve. Biden leads outside the margin of error in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. He has solid but not quite statistically significant 6 point leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Florida not far behind at nearly 5%. Slim Georgia and North Carolina leads of 2-3%. Idiot-in-chief is leading in two, Montana and Texas, but these are 1-2% toss-ups!

I'd like to see more, and at least some high quality polls for Arizona and Iowa, but I'm feeling pretty good. If everyone VOTES and they are COUNTED...just 3 more days!!!

Trump Biden Difference
Florida 45.71 50.43 4.71
Marist 46.50 51.00
Monmouth 45.33 50.33
PPP 45.00 52.00
YouGov 46.00 48.00

Georgia 46.60 49.00 2.40
Landmark 48.00 47.00
Monmouth 46.33 50.00

Michigan 43.25 50.75 7.50
ABC/WPost 44.00 50.00
PPP 44.00 54.00
Siena/NYT 41.00 49.00

Minnesota 42.50 50.50 8.00
PPP 43.00 54.00
SurveyUSA 42.00 47.00

Montana 49.00 47.00 -2.00
PPP 49.00 47.00

Nevada 43.00 49.00 6.00
Siena/NYT 43.00 49.00

North Car 46.67 49.67 3.00
Marist 46.00 51.50
PPP 47.00 51.00
Siena/NYT 45.00 48.00
SurveyUSA 48.00 48.00
UMassLowell 48.00 48.00

Pennsylvania 44.50 50.50 6.00
MuhlCollege 44.00 49.00
PPP 45.00 52.00

Texas 47.67 46.67 -1.00
PPP 48.00 50.00
Siena/NYT 47.00 43.00
UMassLowell 48.00 47.00

Wisconsin 41.25 52.00 10.75
ABC/WPost 39.50 56.50
Marquette 43.00 47.50

National 44.02 51.05 7.03
Emerson 46.70 50.90
Fox News 44.00 51.50
IBD/TIPP 45.00 50.44
Suffolk U 43.65 50.65
YouGov 41.75 52.27

[Tribetime]

1. For some reason in Ohio they added swayable polling

That showed Drumpf up +12% in Ohio right after a poll showed Biden up 5.....I didn't see it on their pilling until right after Biden poll showed him up 5 and Ohio blue? 12 hours later it was 55-45 drumpf and red again

[Chasing Dreams]

2. I've never heard of swayable,

don't give them credence. Or others of that ilk. They must have named it swayable as inside joke about Nate being playable. He's got to dump the fake polls.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Well, by dropping the C and D rated polls, you are indeed cherry picking

Even with Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Survey Monkey, Biden is winning.

[Chasing Dreams]

4. All cherries allowed in except those that are potentially poisonous.

Some of these things sent to 538 are just made up numbers. I could have gone with a lower cutoff, but the polls I quoted are all reputable, grade A and B pollsters. I just wanted to cut through the junk and see for myself what this quality subset is showing. Thought you and others would find that interesting.

[Quixote1818]

5. Cherry picking using science and math. nt

[Midnight Writer]

6. Love to see Biden getting those 50%'s.