General Discussion
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I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
9m
Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you'll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA.
elleng
(130,908 posts)Bleacher Creature
(11,256 posts)We need to avoid the temptation to be giddy about an outlier that's good news just as much as we need to stop freaking out about a bad one.
shrike3
(3,601 posts)(Unless I misunderstood.) So they may still be essentially tied. Not great for us, but not bad either.
central scrutinizer
(11,648 posts)With a sample size a little over 1000, the margin of error is about 3%. So 3% plus or minus gives you a width of 6%. The smaller the sample, the larger the margin of error. Most common is the 95% confidence level.
shrike3
(3,601 posts)What would the margin of error be? I'm terrible with math.
Dream Girl
(5,111 posts)Both Sample size and score go into the MOE calculation
shrike3
(3,601 posts)Do you know what the MOE would be for 800 voters? I thought Nate Silver said seven; obviously I was wrong.
central scrutinizer
(11,648 posts)Candidate A could be as much as 3.5% above the reported poll result, meaning Candidate B is 3.5% below giving Nates report 7% spread on the difference. ( I used to teach basic statistics). The biggest issue is the sampling technique. Bad sample means worthless results
shrike3
(3,601 posts)I imagine you were a good teacher. I would have given you a bad headache had I been your student.
central scrutinizer
(11,648 posts)A few formulas that are built into many calculators. But its a fun class to motivate discussion. Sociology, psychology, political science are all relevant.
shrike3
(3,601 posts)Dream Girl
(5,111 posts)Determine a quality survey.
Dream Girl
(5,111 posts)shrike3
(3,601 posts)Central scrutinizer seems to understand this much better than I do. Pay attention whatever he/she says. Don't pay attention to me.
Tribetime
(4,697 posts)Whoever. Swayable polling is
shrike3
(3,601 posts)I may be wrong.
Most of the other polls were fairly similar. Biden up in only one.
Tribetime
(4,697 posts)Seemed fairly accurate. I don't think Ohio is anything close to that.
shrike3
(3,601 posts)Tribetime
(4,697 posts)TexasBushwhacker
(20,190 posts)to show up on Tuesday.