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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA view of the Iowa Poll from an Iowan.
Although it would break my heart if everything in that poll (except Axne) came true, Iowa is only 6 Electoral Votes and Biden doesnt need Iowa to win.
I hope Ann Seltzer spends a lot of time on Wednesday explaining why her poll was wrong.
Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)LizBeth
(9,952 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)They did not correctly call the last 2 dem primaries
Sogo
(4,986 posts)We need to remain blue!
And that poll is within the margin of error, meaning it's a statistical tie.
madaboutharry
(40,212 posts)Nate Silver of 538 seems to think the poll is wrong.
Sogo
(4,986 posts)I haven't seen the details of the poll yet.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Most everyone entertained the likelihood of him losing Iowa this year, even after it tightened.
I think people are worried that this surge is reminiscent of a similar surge from four years ago that swung Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump. The thought process is that it was picking up, at the state level, the overwhelming support Trump was seeing in white, high school educated voters. So, extrapolating that out, a seven-point lead in Iowa may mean a much narrower race in Wisconsin than what the polls are suggesting.
It's hard to reconcile that Trump is on the cusp of winning Iowa by +7 and Biden is on the cusp of winning Wisconsin by maybe an equally large number when the states have voted together in every election since 1944 minus one - 2004, when Kerry lost Iowa by 10,000 votes and won Wisconsin by about 10,000 votes.
shrike3
(3,609 posts)this year.
I just found out that in Vigo County, Indiana (I live in Indiana, I know that area) Biden and Trump are tied. That can't be right. Can't be. We're talking "hell is real" (signs along the highway that say that) territory. They can't be tied.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)And that means we often build our assumptions off what we know based on the past since, really, the future is uncertain.
Rightfully or not, the only thing we have to compare this election to is through the lens of 2016 and that's because one candidate is Trump - just like 2012 was compared to 2008. We know what voters Trump will bring to the polls. We can only speculate on what voters Biden will bring to the polls because this is, like Hillary four years ago, Biden's first real solo national campaign (as in, he's not the second man on the ticket). So, because of that, little things like this will be amplified as we focus on the trends to get a sense of how this election will break. Moreover, there is a bit of PTSD with how 2016 went - the fact Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania shifted so quickly and the polls failed to pick that shift up.
As for Vigo County, I think that county has voted for the election winner in like every election since the 1950s - and all but two since the 1800s - including Obama's two wins. So, if Biden is really poised to win, it's not a surprise he's tied in that county.
shrike3
(3,609 posts)That's all I'll say.
zebrapa
(112 posts)trump won that county 54% to Hillary's 40%. That a poll indicates a tie is excellent news.
shrike3
(3,609 posts)Biden. By "hell is real" people, I'm talking about the signs along I-65 in that part of the state. "Hell is real," "repent."
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)He carried it both elections. So, it's definitely winnable.
shrike3
(3,609 posts)Damndest thing I ever saw. Told my husband, "Hear that sound? It's the sound of rednecks' heads exploding all over the state."
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)shrike3
(3,609 posts)Winning in 2008 was lightning striking. 2012 was return to normal.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)SharonClark
(10,014 posts)and diverse states like PA and WI. Were physically between MN and MO and heavy with agriculture, evangelicals, clear channel right wing talk radio, and FoxNews.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It's very rare they don't. In fact, going back to 1944, they've only voted differently once: 2004 when Bush won Iowa by 10,000 votes and Kerry won Wisconsin by roughly 10,000 votes.
That could be changing, but it does give me pause.
econron
(152 posts)I'm so sick and tired of this state and all the handouts... farmers, amazon, and every company willing to add "jobs". Thank goodness Ethanol is going to save the economy.... sarcasm
still_one
(92,204 posts)to 2016
At best Iowa was always a toss up state, but with the media pushing this poll, it is psychologically unnerving because of what we have been through the last four years
As long as we vote we will win
There are more Democrats than republicans, more Women than men, add to that the Latino, African American vote, and those republicans who have come out against trump
As long as we vote, our diversity will win the day
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It tells me they're not convinced these states are locked down, despite the polls indicating a healthy-ish lead in all of 'em. He certainly has a better polling advantage in Michigan than he does in Georgia and North Carolina and Florida, yet he won't be to any of those states.
As for Hillary and 2016, something similar actually happened to her. In all of October, Hillary had three rallies total in Pennsylvania (2) and Michigan (1). In the final four days of the campaign, she actually held NINE rallies in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. She changed course at the last moment and I know it led people to wonder if her internals were showing those states as closer than what the actual polls were showing.
Turns out...
still_one
(92,204 posts)Tribetime
(4,697 posts)spooky3
(34,456 posts)Although Biden doesnt need Iowa to win (though wed all love to win it) Dems are hoping to pick up that Senate seat.
We absolutely need to pick up that senate seat.
still_one
(92,204 posts)and even Mississippi
zebrapa
(112 posts)We need to turn five senate seats to control that body (we're almost for sure going to lose our seat in Alabama).
IMHO Arizona and Colorado are "for sure". Maine and NC are "almost for sure". Georgia is a possible but if Ossoff "wins" with less than 50% of the vote, they'll have a runoff election.
Mississippi and Texas - not going to happen for us.
WE NEED IOWA.
David__77
(23,418 posts)There's chance in involved when sampling, even with the "best sampling approach," whatever that might be.
the poll you're referencing reported error +/-3.4%. If this is a 95% confidence interval, it's equivalent to saying the following:
We're 95% sure that the true results is somewhere between these two results -
Biden 37.6%, Trump 51.4%
Biden 44.4%, Trump 44.6%
There's a 5% chance that the true result lies somewhere outside the interval between those results.
I like the approach of looking at many polls to see trends: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
still_one
(92,204 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Mediocre pollsters trash outliers so nothing falls outside the "safety zone".
You want a pollster who reports all their findings not just the ones that appear correct.