Spooked by that horrible IOWA poll? Here's something to cheer you up

[applegrove]

Spooked by that horrible IOWA poll? Here's something to cheer you up

Oct 31, 2020 10:03pm Eastern Daylight Time 

by manrico1967, Community Daily Kos

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/31/1991453/-Spooked-by-that-horrible-IOWA-poll-Here-s-something-to-cheer-you-up

"SNIP.....

Like many people here I was horrified by that Iowa polls showing the mango mussolini ahead by 7 points. Never mind that Iowa is not, and has not been, a piece of Biden’s path to 270. Of course it would be great to have it and we do need the senate seat.

The reaction on Twitter was unhinged. It is as if there was an old saying “As Iowa goes, so goes the country”. Some people inferred that that poll showed some trump strength in the Midwest. Never mind that trump won IA by 10 points in 2016, but MI and WI by less than 1% each. 

In any case, Dave Wasserman has been making the case that back in 2016, district level polls were flashing warning signs for Hillary. Now the warning signs are flashing again, but this time for trump. Point in case: Today Emerson (rated A- by 538) released a poll showing Biden with a 7 point lead in Wisconsin, which is great. But the really good news in this case is that they also show Biden and trump tied at 48% in Vigo County in Indiana. Ho hum you say. Well, not only that county has voted for the eventual winner of the election since 1888, with the exception of 1952 and 1908. Also, trump won this county by 14 points in 2016.

The relevant point here is that trump is really under performing compared to 2016 at the district level. The district level polls led Wasserman to believe that trump had the momentum going into the election 4 years ago, and now hey show that momentum on Biden’s side.

...SNIP"

[MFM008]

1. timing is interesting

only 2 full days left before an election,
I smell Russia from here.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. DMR has historically released their poll the final weekend before the election...

This isn't anything nefarious lol

[coti]

11. If you're on Twitter or Facebook talking about that poll

you might be unintentionally getting influenced by Russian trolls' spin.

[Tommymac]

17. +1 nt

[Thekaspervote]

2. Thank you!! A voice of sanity that seems to be scarce here this evening

[elleng]

3. Thanks. As much as I'd like to see Iowa go Dem (my brother + family live there,)

I'll try not to focus on it.

[crickets]

4. K&R for visibility.

[at140]

5. Forget Iowa..I am more flummoxed by breakdown at Mango-Madness's rallies

in PA & MI. I see stats that claim 20% attending are registered democrats. Is this unusual?
Anyone remember stats from earlier rallies or even 2016?

[shrike3]

13. I just took a look, and only sites like Bongino.com and redstate claim that 20 percent

of rally attendees are Democrats. So, who knows?

[MustLoveBeagles]

6. K&R

Thank you for posting this.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. The part about Trump winning IA by 10 & barely winning MI, WI and PA is a good point. But...

If that margin is represented again in 2020, a seven-point loss for Biden in Iowa won't translate into a five or six-point win in any of those states. If anything, those three states could be within one or two points again (especially depending on whether the DMR poll isn't off by three-points like it was in 2016 when it had Trump winning Iowa by seven and he won by 10ish). That really is my big concern. Is there really a 15+ point difference between Iowa and Wisconsin?

There's never been that big of a gap between the states since at least the 1940s.

[Sugarcoated]

15. But why get so worried about one poll?

[moonscape]

9. My only potential angst about Iowa comes from really

really (really) wanting Ernst gone. Want as big a Senate majority as possible, but yeah, we all do ...

[Sogo]

10. Thanks.

That IS good news.

[Seasider]

12. My main issue with that is it just doesn't make sense

For the past 6 months the Iowa polls have been for the most part neck and neck with Trump sometimes leading narrowly and sometimes Biden narrowly leading. Now Trump has this sudden surge. What’s changed to cause such a shift?

[triron]

14. Same here. I'm suspicious.

[Tommymac]

16. Can you spell Koch?

I wouldn't be surprised if those fascist pigs are throwing some $$$$ behind the scenes.

Their Killer Clown needs a maskarova so the Putin Online Bots can promote a Trump win.

[grantcart]

18. Nothing. It's an outlier

Reputable polling firms release all their polls regardless of where they land and there will always be outliers. The Wisconsin poll showing Biden up by 17 was an outlier.

Less professional pollsters will "herd" their results to stay within expected ranges.

No weight should be given to a single poll that has moved drastically until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

[Blue Owl]

19. K&R