Kendall Kaut: Why Biden is Going to Win

[nsd]

Why Biden is Going to Win

By Kendall Kaut

We’re three days from the election, and Joe Biden is going to win. I can hedge and say “Well, we could have a catastrophic polling error,” or “Trump is going to steal the election.” I don’t see either happening. Biden has led since March, and before most of you wake up on November 4th, Biden will be president-elect.

Trump faces too devastating a situation to win. If he wins, the entire polling industry, and quite possibly empiricism itself, would be in a nearly unfathomable crisis.

The easiest explanation is that Trump barely beat a terrible candidate in 2016. Trump is less popular than he was in 2016, Biden is more popular than Clinton, and the electorate is less hospitable to Trump than it was in 2016.

[A good analysis. Read the rest here: Article]

[TreasonousBastard]

1. Ordinarily, I suspect polling works pretty well-- the poll business has learned a lot since...

"Dewey Beats Truman".

But these are not ordinary times and we haven't seen such bitterness since... Shit we haven't seen such bitterness and hatred. I suspect a LOT of people aren't being truthful to polltakers. With the attitudes out there, you could be risking a lot answering truthfully.

If almost half of the country is actually behind such a colossal failure as Trump, this country is doomed and no longer any decent place to live. I find that difficult to believe, though. The flag waving Trumpons are out there, but I think (hope?) their noise is far greater than their numbers or effectiveness. If they actually use those guns they love, however, all bets are off, and stunts like following the Biden bus are terrifying. I don't think that's ever happened before.

So, for the next two days I live in hope that there are secret Biden voters out there. Lots of them.

[Turin_C3PO]

2. I've read

a couple of articles saying that the “secret Trump voters“ don’t exist in any significant way (sorry, no link). It’s Republican wishful thinking.

[writes3000]

3. FANTASTIC piece! Must read and share. Thanks!

[MaryMagdaline]

4. Great article!

[Skittles]

5. Hillary was NOT a terrible candidate

she won the popular vote by MILLIONS and would be president now if Trump had not received help from Russia and the FBI

[JI7]

7. yup, the shit she faced for decades. Imagine anyone else dealing

with that. So fucking tired of the attacks.

[Aristus]

8. Yeah. Simply calling her a terrible candidate is perpetuating the thirty years of gross defamation

she had to deal with her entire adult life.

I wish her a happy retirement. But all the same, I wish Joe Biden would appoint her to a very important post from which she can wreak vengeance for such filthy treatment.

[onetexan]

11. People just have to use her as example don't they?

Hillary was the most qualified nominee ever.

[regnaD kciN]

13. Sorry, but no...

He's not saying Hillary Clinton was a terrible person, or a terrible policymaker, or a terrible diplomat. He's saying she was a terrible candidate. Not everyone who's excellent at statescraft is excellent at convincing voters to elect them.

Yes, a lot of it has to do with the fact that she'd been singled out as the subject of almost three straight decades of calumny from the Republican Noise Machine. And, yes, that was totally unfair! But, as Bill notably said back in his time in the White House, "life isn't fair." It should be obvious to anyone who has followed U.S. politics over the past half-century or more that few things are more common than a nominee who would make an excellent president falling short because "the other guy seemed like the type I'd like to have a beer with." And, frankly, it's a death wish to run a nominee who is underwater in favorability ratings (even against an opponent who is a bit worse in that regard) when the demographics of the Electoral College dictate that a Democrat not only has to win by a little, but has to win by a lot in order to offset the advantage it gives to one's opponent.

It's not "defamation" to say that Hillary Clinton's skills in politics were nowhere near as good as her skills in governing would have been. It's why Al Gore, John Kerry, Michael Dukakis...hell, even Adlai Stevenson (twice!) failed to become president, while Bill Clinton did. And, yes, it speaks badly to the American electorate...but, if you expect to enact positive change for the American people, you better find a way to deal with that issue right up front.

[Skittles]

19. nope

those other candidates did not have Russia and the FBI against them

if she was a terrible candidate, she would have lost the popular vote too

and those others also did not have to deal with SEXISM

[JI7]

21. She was also competitive in the Primary against Obama who most would consider

the greatest candidate/campaigner . He would have had no real competition other than her .

[Arazi]

24. +1. Her favorability ratings were a massive alarm bell that was never acknowledged

Even now...

[calimary]

16. I'd put her on the Supreme Court just to piss the haters off

Only problem with that is I wish she were younger. I’d want her in there, pissing them off, and totally untouchable, for the rest of her hopefully long life.

[jmowreader]

17. I would LOVE it if Hillary was given this job...

Special Prosecutor in charge of investigating the Trump regime.

Trump won election in part because he said he was going to put Hillary Clinton in prison. It would be especially delicious if Hillary Clinton was the one to put Donald Trump in prison.

[ecstatic]

25. That would be awesome! Lol!

But I can just hear our temporary allies (never trumpers like Joe Scarborough) raising hell about the optics.

[2Legit]

10. Exactly!

All of the Hillary hating really baffles and irks me. That being said, I'd enjoy the fact that she is sitting back reminding people that she told us so, except that we've lived through this nightmare for four years. She told us what the real deal was and 80K people in Michigan and Wisconsin decided not to listen. She went on to live her best life and we were stuck with a megalomaniac who happens to be an everyday sadist.

[calimary]

14. THIS, DAMMIT!!!

I am BEYOND sick of the dump-on-Hillary. SICK of it. The bad guys have been smearing her nonstop since 1992. And I have hated every minute of it.

[DFW]

20. Amen to that

I agree with every word

[brer cat]

27. I will add another THIS, DAMMIT!!

Will it ever end?

[DLCWIdem]

6. K & R

[love_katz]

9. I agree with Skittles.

Hillary was not a terrible candidate. She was targeted by a hate-filled disinformation campaign, aided and abetted by misogyny. Agolf Twitler and his supporters have made the existence of a high level of misogyny and bigotry in this country painfully visible. Proof of this is the very mean and septic preprogrammed bot who has been rammed onto the Supreme Court. The problems in this country are bigger than Trump. We have a long fight ahead of us. Getting our Dem candidates elected, at all levels of government, is just the start.

[radius777]

12. Excellent article, he covers everything.

Wasserman's analysis regarding the district level polling is encouraging, and he also sees a blue shift in the Sun Belt so that even if something weird happens in one of the Rust Belt states we likely will win one or more of AZ/GA/NC.

[smirkymonkey]

15. K&R

[ucrdem]

18. Hillary was awesome, and that was her undoing.

She let the Vermont guy hang around like a bad penny where a less thoughtful candidate would have delivered a coup de grâce in February and gotten him off her back. She told the truth where others would have lied. But mainly she threatened a lot of guys who didn't like the idea of a super-smart lady boss.

That aside, I agree, it's been over for awhile. Nevertheless I am keeping fingers and toes crossed until we get safely to Nov 4.

[Captain Zero]

22. Hillary or Obama either one could be our Rep in the UN

Would be a short commute for Hillary.

[ucrdem]

23. Hillary would be a GREAT UN rep!

Barack too, though it would be unusual for an ex-pres to re-enter govt, and he's earned his retirement. But this is an emergency and either would tell the world the US is back in the business of leading by example. And the world would breathe a yuuuuge sigh of relief.

[Arazi]

26. Recommended

[dchill]

28. K&R.

[Blue Owl]

29. K&R