Ralston calls it for Biden in Nevada : The dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

Early voting blog is updated.

With Clark Dem firewall approaching unprecedented 90K voters after overnight update, Trump's path in NV leads off a mail ballot cliff.

The dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

The Clark Dem firewall is now above 89,500 with a big new batch of mail that posted overnight. This is well above the 73,000-ballot firewall of 2016 and even above the 87,600 extrapolated number taking into account the increase in voters on the rolls since four years ago.

If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.

I don't know how much more mail will be returned before Tuesday, nor do I know how many ballots will be rejected (the rate so far shows it doesn’t change the lead very much). But the dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

More than 400,000 ballots have been cast by mail in Clark County and more than 775,000 overall. The number of votes left for Election Day continues to dwindle, and the chances of an overwhelming GOP turnout to turn this around becomes less and less likely.

More later, but the math is just not there for Trump.

[dhill926]

1. a very good thing....

[Wounded Bear]

2. Never really doubted Nevada...

[sunonmars]

10. me neither

[honest.abe]

3. This is a big deal since a NV win was part of a somewhat plausible Trump win.

Without NV he is going to have do a repeat of 2016. Very very unlikely.

[sunonmars]

6. Yeah it cuts off his routes even more.

[Squinch]

4. That's one. 49 to go.

[soothsayer]

5. Well Drumpf's got the Julius Caesar combover...

[sandensea]

17. And wants a Gold Standard like Julius did

It would induce an immediate depression - but to Cheeto, that's an "YP not an MP"

[PutGramaOnThePhone]

7. I'm easily...

amused, but I love a good play on a well-worn idiom - “The dice are cast” - hahaha. Also easy for me to say after reading something that portends good election results.

[Iliyah]

8. If the NV's election is close . ..

the GOP's lawyers are taking this to court.

Democratic lawyers are ready.

[sunonmars]

9. They already have, 3 times and lost every time.

[Blue_true]

11. Maybe that is why they are trying to invalidate mail in ballots from Clarke County. nt

[triron]

12. Yay!

[bucolic_frolic]

13. NV is one piece to the backup plan of battleground states

very good to think it's coming along nicely

[niyad]

14. I hope Ralston is correct. But I am neither encouraged nor discouraged by polls or predictions.

We know what they said in 2016, and we know what happened. I won't draw a deep breath until President Biden is sworn in on Jan. 20. And then we will all be too busy cleaning up the scorched earth obscenity that was the murdering orange traitor's horror show.

[grantcart]

15. When has Ralston ever been wrong about Nevada?

[KelleyKramer]

23. That's not a poll, it's actual ballots cast

[stopbush]

16. I get the Vegas connection with the "dice" being cast,

but the saying is “the die is cast,” and it refers to a die as in a device used to cut or mold metal into a particular shape.

[pnwmom]

18. I knew it, too! Someone here was freaking out about NV's vote count, but the clip said

they hadn't yet included Clark County's numbers.

So then they were worthless!

Thank you, Clark County, Nevada!

[cagefreesoylentgreen]

19. There's 3 million people

There’s about only 3 million people in all of Nevada. More than 2 million of them are jammed into Clark County. So winning Clark is almost a guaranteed win for the state, with Washoe sealing the deal.

[Stand and Fight]

24. We're not jammed into Clark County. We're here by choice.

Most of us — thank the Heavens — are stalwarts Democratic in our leanings. Otherwise, this state would like be a red bastion.

[moose65]

21. Yeah

Clark County is kinda like Los Angeles County in that it is a HUGE population center, home to about 70% of the population of Nevada. If one wins Clark by a large margin, the rest of the state literally doesn't matter.

I like to use Clark as another counter-example to that blood-red county map that conservatives love to post. There are probably secessionist types in the desert counties of Nevada who blather on about Clark County "controlling" the state, just like they rail against Chicago controlling Illinois and NYC controlling all of the state of New York. My response: "suck it up, buttercup."

[Stand and Fight]

25. You're exactly right. Some of the rural voters here do just that.

They are luckily a small number. Most Nevadans are good and decent people.

[Cha]

20. Oh I HOPE SO!

[Blue Owl]

22. K&R

[Stand and Fight]

26. Battle born and raised in Vegas. We're fighting like hell.

Glad to see the hard work is paying off.