TPM: "National Polls: Race Tightens Among Likely Voters"

[Bucky]

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/polls-presidential-race-tightens-obama-economy.php

[font size="4"]National Polls: Race Tightens Among Likely Voters, Obama Approval On Economy Ticks Up[/font]

President Obama built a small lead in the national polls throughout September, but two surveys released Monday showed the race reverting to the neck-and-neck status the contest has known most of the year.

New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result. While those numbers suggest the state of the race is relatively unchanged, the view of the economy — the election’s most important issue — has seen a slow but steady movement over the last year.

“Ratings of the economy, while very negative, have grown less intensely so since late August (39 percent say it’s in poor shape, down from 45 percent),” ABC pollster Gary Langer wrote in his analysis. “Obama’s 47 percent approval rating for handling the economy, while still underwater, is numerically its highest in more than two years. And views that the nation is headed seriously off on the wrong track have eased by 9 percentage points to the fewest since January 2011.”

Overall, the PollTracker Average of the president’s approval on the economy has evened out as election day nears, but still remains negative.

Just a reminder: the polls, while consistent, are within the margin of error now. Your participation WILL make a difference. A month is a damn long time, an eternity, and our opponents are notorious for dissembling, voter suppression, and October surprises. Double down between now and Nov 6th. Obama will probably win, even with a generally tied popular vote. What we have to worry about now is coat tails and the Republicans in blue areas cleverly distancing themselves from Romney. Every vote they don't let us count will count this year.

[ProSense]

1. TPM is getting slammed for picking up the MSM talking point as

a headline. Look at what they're reporting.

New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result. While those numbers suggest the state of the race is relatively unchanged, the view of the economy — the election’s most important issue — has seen a slow but steady movement over the last year.

Obama actually gained a point in the ABC poll.

“Ratings of the economy, while very negative, have grown less intensely so since late August (39 percent say it’s in poor shape, down from 45 percent),” ABC pollster Gary Langer wrote in his analysis. “Obama’s 47 percent approval rating for handling the economy, while still underwater, is numerically its highest in more than two years. And views that the nation is headed seriously off on the wrong track have eased by 9 percentage points to the fewest since January 2011.”

So much for the "'OMG, the race is tightening!' narrative."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021449079

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Used To Think You Were Irrationally Exuberant But You Are The Very Best Antidote To The Cassandras

The very best.

Most Valuable Democratic Undergrounder.


Keep up the good work.

[ProSense]

4. Thanks,

I think?



Thanks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. There Are Too Many Cassandras Here. I'm In Full Pollyanna Mode.

[BlueStreak]

3. That's about where LV has been all along. That's not a major change. Besides ...

national polls are irrelevant. Obama hasn't been making his case in 40 of the states. You can argue whether that is good or bad for democracy, but that's the way it is. He's making his case in 10ish swing states, and his margin is still growing there.