Wow! Obama takes 11 POINT LEAD IN NV. NV No Longer Tossup

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

WeAskAmerica poll today has Obama up 11 points 53-42.

This moves NV out of tossup status on RCP and into Leans Obama. They haven't updated their map yet, but when they do, with tossups, Obama is at 275-181 EV.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Wow is right!

It's starting to look like a landslide!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Oops...can't take George Bush's path to victory now

http://theweek.com/article/index/233751/3-paths-to-electoral-victory-for-mitt-romney

1. Follow George W. Bush's roadmap
One obvious path for Romney would be following Bush's path to victory in 2004, says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. "At the moment that looks like a dicey proposition, and that should make Republicans very nervous." Still, it's worth a look. If Romney won every state Bush did, he'd have 292 electoral votes, so he's got a little room for error. Bush's tally included six wins in what were then considered swing states — Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida. New Mexico and Iowa will likely go to Obama, so subtract their electoral votes, and Romney is down to 281, barely enough to win. And remember, there are other obstacles on this path, too, as "some states that President Bush never worried about — Virginia and North Carolina in particular — are quite competitive" this year.

[barnabas63]

3. aw.I saw the "IN" and thought he was ahead in Indiana..

...before i reread...I wish he was ahead by 11 in Indiana too!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Nope but Mike Pence is well ahead in his race for Governor

though, interestingly, most people aren't happy about his "social issues" platform- he is proposing that every piece of legislation includes a "family impact statement". HETEROSEXUAL families only, of course.............

[tjwash]

4. Time to concentrate on the 3 senate tossups and congressional races

Adding the minus fox pollsters map:

[Cicada]

5. Look at all polls, not just one

I read the best measure is to ignore best and worst poll and take average of others. Nevada still looks good but not certain.

[berni_mccoy]

9. Of course. This one raises the average to 5.2 point lead for Obama... And that...

means NV is no longer tossup according to RCP's criteria.

This 11 point lead is part of an ongoing trend.

[grantcart]

10. Nevada is a lock

The court ruled that they had to include "none of the above" on the ballot.

The State Republican Party is 100% behind Ron Paul and not doing anything to help Romney.

Once the court ruled that NOA had to be on the ballot I believe that Romney gave up there. No visits and no ad buys.

[Brother Buzz]

6. It was Romney's to lose

Nevada is kinda like the 'Show me state'. There is a huge independent/non-partisan/decline-to-state voting block in Nevada that delivers elections. They are a smart pragmatic group just waiting to hear something they like; Romney couldn't deliver.

Democrat 562,324
Republican 460,669
Non-Partisan 213,701
American Independent 59,976
Libertarian 8,406

Total 1,313,911

http://www.nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=846

[grantcart]

11. Once they put "none of the above" on the ballot Romney was toast.

[flamingdem]

7. That rocks, kudos to the Californians who've been calling in

to Nevada among other activists!

[cr8tvlde]

8. Arizona will give us a nice Southwestern Blue Block...next election, Texas !!!

Get those Castro boys out there between now and 2016. They are dynamite!!

[grantcart]

13. IMO Nevada stopped becoming a tossup on Sept 6.

That is when the court ruled they had to have "None of the Above" on the ballot:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/nevada-s-none-of-the-above-option-back-on-ballot-20120906

Nevada’s unusual "none of the above" ballot option is alive again, thanks to an emergency order granted by a federal appeals court, the Associated Press reported.

A three-judge federal panel in San Francisco allowed the option to remain on the ballot and castigated a federal judge who last month struck down the option while calling it unconstitutional.

Ninth Circuit Judge Stephen Reinhardt wrote that U.S. District Judge Robert Jones was dragging his feet on the issue. “His dilatory tactics appear to serve no purpose other than to seek to prevent the state from taking an appeal of his decision before it must print the ballots," he wrote in granting a stay.

The "none" language will now be on the November ballot, according to a spokeswoman for Nevada’s attorney general’s office, but appeals will likely continue.

Nevada is the only state in the union with such an option. Republicans sought to get the language removed this year over fears that it could cost them votes in the presidential election.

Further problems for Romney is that Ron Paul supporters took over the state party apparatus and are openly hostile to Romney. Romney had to set up his own state party machine as there was so much animosity between the two groups they could not trust the state officers.

On Romney's last trip to Nevada Governor Sandoval, popular Republican Governor, went out of town.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/sep/27/nevada-governor-steers-clear-romneys-47-percent-re/

The governor said he has no events scheduled with Romney in Nevada, but “I’ve done everything that’s been asked of me” by the Romney campaign.

Sometimes, though, he has prior commitments, he said.

During Romney’s most recent campaign visit in Reno, on Sept. 11, Sandoval attended a memorial in Fallon.

The 47% comments were not popular in Nevada:

Sandoval is not the first Nevada Republican to distance himself from Romney’s remarks about the 47 percent.

Republican Sen. Dean Heller last week said: “I don’t agree with the comments that he made. I just don’t have that view of the world,” Heller said.

toast, toasted, toastest.

[berni_mccoy]

14. Nice. I hadn't seen that. Thanks for posting!