Before anyone assumes Obama has the debate in the bag and Romney is doomed...

[WilliamPitt]

...remember:

* Romney has been debating on a regular basis since 1994. Granted, Ted Kennedy cleaned his clock, wristwatch and microwave timer in '94, but that was the beginning of 18 years of experience;

* Romney debated several times in 2002;

* Romney debated a bunch of times during the 2008 primaries;

* Romney debated approximately 42,955 times during this last round of primaries;

* Romney has been practicing his ass off for Wednesday night, while Obama has been kinda busy with other things and stuff;

* Obama has not debated in four years.

Now, Romney's performances in '08 and '11-'12 did not set any records for excellence, but experience - especially recent experience - is going to count for something.

Also, there is the simple fact that Obama is going to have to remember SO MUCH when it comes to Romney's reversals, flip-flops and outright lies in order to use them to good effect. The volume is just so vast...and any soldier will tell you that the problem with having lots and lots and lots and lots of ammunition is the fact that you have to carry it.

I expect good things, and am looking forward to Wednesday light like a little kid on Christmas Eve. I'm not saying "Don't get your hopes up," but I am saying "Don't be surprised if the Walking Derp does better than you expect him to."

[sellitman]

1. There was a story on Al Gore's Internet recently about a gent who went to school with both men

He wasn't as kind to Flipper as you are. Basically he thought Obama would clean his clock.

Maybe the problem is , what clock?

[rfranklin]

3. The atomic clock which runs the Rombot android...

Every once in a while it hiccups.

[renate]

10. lol--Flipper!

[elleng]

2. I expect they'll both do well,

AND I suspect we'll conclude that President Obama did better. rmoney is allegedly smart, tho we haven't seen much of it in his campaign. Debate? We'll see.

[JaneyVee]

4. Obama beat McCain. McCain beat Romney. Mitt Romney places 3rd.

[bigtree]

5. truth, but it depends

The President doesn't have to just respond to Romney. He can set his OWN narrative for the debate, from the outset. I remember plenty of the tracking done during the debates and the tactics i think Romney will resort to will be compared to the posture and character of President Obama's performance. To me, that's an uphill climb for Romney. I just don't think his BS plays well, at all, with voters and folks who bother to tune in.

[Blue Belle]

14. You make a good point...

And Romney doesn't have a solid campaign narrative to rely on. I mean, how many times have his positions switched in the past two months? That tangled web he has woven will come back to bite him in the ass.

[alc]

6. I assume 90% of the voters will feel certain "their guy" won

Romney could "win" by making a small % of voters in swing states think "Romney isn't the bad guy I've been hearing about."

Without blowing Obama out of the water, he could make undecideds feel he's worth the risk - if they liked Obama they probably wouldn't be undecided. And he could make some independents who are leaning Obama think there may be something to the media bias claims because Romney doesn't seem as bad as they've been hearing.

It may not show up in polls right away. One marketing theory is that people need to see an ad 6 times before being willing to buy the product. A "boring" debate could be one of the six views that undecideds need to vote R/R. My guess is that Romney doesn't go by this theory - he'll try to win big and in doing so lose with the small % of people he needs to influence.

[Ninga]

7. Spot on Will. My thinking about the debate may be perhaps a bit nuanced.

I think that Romney's "head" and all of his so called missteps when he has spoken off the cuff, or too soon, or when trying to be funny will play with his mind.

All the practicing and previous debate experience will be reset to zero tomorrow night.

Never before has so much been at stake for him and this alone will play with his "head". If he blinks, he will be toast. If he has flashbacks of his mistakes, then he will be toast.

He knows he is down in the polls, and I am sure his wife and advisers have screamed at him "you said WHAT? WHY did you say THAT?"

He has too many conflicting messages in his head to be able to sort out the right ones.

[graham4anything]

8. the debates (not really debates at all) do not matter either way

Obama is leading 42 to 0 late in the fourth quarter

even if Romney scores 4 tds, that is at most 32 points(2 point conversion) and Obama wins.

Almost all of Obama's voters (which include every minority, and all women) will not change their minds

Romney voters, once they know he is losing, might vote for Gary Johnson as a protest.

And there are almost no undecided voters. (except in a rasmussen, or his other alias' polls.)

This race is over, shout it out loud and often and run up the score and we can win the house
(look at Florida, West is about to be upset there, a seat we did not expect.) We can win the house with a winners attitude

and the debates don't matter

Their side will say he won and we are not on a college debating team.

(and Nate Silver seemed to have picked up my football analogy but he becomes a bit timid in his anwer.)

[WilliamPitt]

9. "becomes"?

Nate Silver was born with a timid gene the size of an aircraft carrier.

[emulatorloo]

11. Romney's gonna have to keep track of his own/Ryan's lies, which won't be that easy.

Much easier if you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.

I think it is possible Romney's brain will overload trying to keep all the lies straight.

[renate]

12. I expect Romney to be stiff and unlikeable, because duh

But I don't remember Obama as being a particularly awesome debater, and as you said, he's out of practice compared with Romney. Not that Romney was any good whatsoever in the Republican debates--in fact, that's when he first began being pretty laughable. But I don't expect Obama to wipe the floor with him, either.

I'm SO looking forward to seeing Romney trying to deliver one of those zingers as if it had just occurred to him.

[Nye Bevan]

13. Just as the media always wants the World Series to go to Game 7,

they will be totally rooting for Romney to out-debate Obama, to tighten up the race. In their ideal scenario there is a dead heat going into the last debate and into the election itself. Be prepared for them to play up Romney's performance on any remotely plausible pretext.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

15. Rmoney did nothing in those recent debates

Except bet Rick Perry.

[LynneSin]

16. I played softball for 8 years when I was a kid

And even after 8 years I still sucked at hitting a ball.

Just saying.

I think the key to Obama and the debates was summed up well by you with that next to last sentence. But I think the one other thing Obama needs to do is call Romney on the 'zingers' almost immediately. That was the tactic that Sarah Palin used when she debated Joe Biden but Biden didn't want to seem like a bully so he kinda let it slide but still had mores substance that Caribou Barbie. If Obama calls out the Zingers right away asking if Romney is going to present facts or just soundbites, then any other time Romney tries to zing he's gonna look like a dumbass who can't come up with anything better to day.

I have no problems with Zingers but they are only effective when used once or twice in the entire debate. You use them the entire debate you look like you have nothing else to offer.

[Robb]

17. Remember Will, we all watched * make an ass of himself in the debates

...and the media fawned all over how well he did under the harsh onslaught of the brilliant opposition.

rMoney can fuck a live donkey at the podium, and half the media will call him a steeplechase champion.

[no_hypocrisy]

18. I demand that Romney be pat down before the debate to make sure he isn't wearing

a respectable republican wire.

[arthritisR_US]

19. The media is just waiting for its gottcha moment on the President, I think he has an uphill battle.

[hifiguy]

20. Point well taken, but he may as well have been debating monkeys

in the Rethug primaries. Gingrinch - who as Krugman memorably said sounds like a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like - was the only real competition. Perry, Bachmann, Cain and Frothy couldn't think their way out of an open box.

[WilliamPitt]

21. *sigh*

[joshcryer]

22. To be fair the moderator is being a jerk with regards to regulating the time.

Hell that may be the narrative coming out of this thing.

Romney can dominate because he likes to hear himself talk so even when he's talking crap he's still using more time.

[WilliamPitt]

23. Obama is the President of the United States of America.

"The moderator sucks" is not an excuse.

[joshcryer]

24. He has 20 minutes.

[ProSense]

25. Romney is getting his ass kicked. n/t

[Earth Bound Misfit]

26. You pretty much nailed it...

except fo the I expect good things part.