Worried pollsters admit huge problem

[applegrove]

Worried pollsters admit huge problem

Sara Kehaulani Goo

"SNIP...


Four years later, it’s still easy to hate on the polls. Even if they called the presidential race "right" this time, the national polls vastly underestimated support for President Trump once again, leading to a major industry soul searching about how to fix some fundamental problems.

.....

Forget the “shy Trump voter” narrative. Before the election, pollsters were worried that perhaps some Trump voters surveyed were simply too embarrassed to tell people that they were voting for him.

* The real problem is even worse. Virtually every poll did not survey enough Trump supporters, period — meaning there’s a huge sampling error the industry needs to reckon with.

“We’ve been struggling with this issue and we keep trying to fix it and it’s not totally working,” said one worried pollster who did not want to be named for fear of ruining his industry.



.....SNIP"

[still_one]

1. I think a major problem is that many people do not answer their phones for numbers they

do not recognize

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. That would be me.

My mailbox remains full....on purpose. If you are not in my contact list, text or email me, and I will return the call - if warranted. Way too many cold sales calls, donation requests, and (in the past) bill collection threats.

[still_one]

8. same here

[Silent3]

9. That failure to answer the phone is not, in and of itself, a problem

It only becomes a problem if there’s a systemic difference between how frequently a Trump voter answers the phone (and if so, answers honestly) vs. a Biden voter. If political affiliation is uncorrelated with willing and honest cooperation with pollsters, there’s no problem.

One big possible difference I can imagine this election cycle is QAnon. QAnon followers might very well be not just uncooperative with, but paranoid about, polling.

[renate]

16. "QAnon followers might very well be not just uncooperative with, but paranoid about, polling."

I think you're absolutely right.

[Dem2]

18. We always vastly overestimate the number of crazy voters

Are there really more than a vocal few percent of these whack jobs?

[Statistical]

29. The polls were off by about 3% nationally,

Do I think 3% of Americans are dumb enough to believe QAnon bullshit? Oh hell yeah.

[Dem2]

30. Sure, at least 3-5%

Vocal minority, they shock us into thinking they're all as crazy.

[applegrove]

32. Q Anon belivers or likers were up to 7% of the of Americans in October. That is more than

enough to f up the polls.

[Dem2]

33. Source?

[applegrove]

36. guess it was 22 million people like it: I will update.

I guess it was 22 million people like it: 7% of Americans

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/qanon-supporters-arent-quite-who-you-think-they-are/amp

[Dem2]

38. Thanks!

Very interesting. This is especially fascinating:

Those numbers, however, heavily overstate the level of belief. Toward the end of the poll, Schaffner asked respondents which statements they had heard of before taking the survey. A large number of Qanon supporters, it turned out, were rating as “true” statements that they were encountering for the first time. The “global network” statement only polled at 38 percent when discounting people who had never heard it. For the “Trump is preparing mass arrests” claim, which is generally described as the foundational QAnon belief, only 26 percent both had heard of it and said it was true. Recall that these are percentages of a percent. Thirty-eight percent of 7 percent translates to only 2.6 percent of the overall population.

They agree with things they've never even heard of before It's really just a "my team" thing with many of these dopes.

I personally believe that the Q thing is simply a response/projection to the "raped a 13 year old" and "grab 'em by the pussy" accusations against Dear Leader.

[applegrove]

39. I changed it from believe to like in my post too.

[Captain Zero]

10. Maybe that, but I got surveyed by AP-NORC & this how they did it.

I got an oversize postcard from them addressed to a "registered voter" at my address.

It had a scratch off pin # and I could use the pin# to go to a website or an 800 number and take the survey.
Given the anti-social attitudes of a lot of Trump voters, how many of them throw that in the trash saying they
aren't taking some liberal poll. They don't 'believe' in polls, statistics, or numbers. How many of them start the poll
and abandon it for various hostile reasons.

Their anti-social and hostile attitudes are a hallmark that might make it difficult to poll them in any manner. (?)
Thus they are under accounted for in scientific polling. Maybe they think it invades their privacy?

The card and website did reassure info would only be aggregated with others but do they comprehend that?

[andym]

26. Very good points

in agreement with my post #14 below, as you mentioned. The worst part is that this means that Trump was and is probably more popular than Gallop and the like have been reporting -- probably about 47-48%.

[ananda]

17. I'm one of those.

I think the Q-Anoners were noriously under-sampled, also.

[Drahthaardogs]

24. Yes, but for that to be the real cause

Would mean that Democrats are MORE inclined to answer unrecognized numbers

[uponit7771]

41. no, other countries with similar infrastructure do light years better

[TwilightZone]

2. A different take on "shy" Trump voters - I think it might be more overt than that.

I think they might have lied to pollsters intentionally. Just a hunch, though.

I'm not sure how they'd ever account for that, if so.

[applegrove]

34. Yes I agree. Or at least had an intentional meme spread to their brains purposely.

[andym]

3. It's not the "shy" Trump voter, it is the uncooperative Trump voter

The type of voter who says "mind your own business", "get off my lawn" and does not trust pollsters and many other organizations. They represent a whole class of Trump voters, some of whom don't always bother to vote. They are not literally shy, they are not civic-minded. They fit in with the GOP, because they favor self-interest and selfishness over all else.

USC polling had an experimental way to estimate them-- ask others how many of their close acquaintances will vote. Their last poll, Trump only was 5% down.

"The University of Southern California’s Dornsife Center is publishing results from its regular national poll but is also using parallel “experimental” questions asking people who they think their social contacts are voting for and who they think will win their home state.

In 2016, USC-Dornsife made headlines for being one of the few polls to show Trump leading nationally. Clinton ended up winning the national popular vote and USC later adjusted its methodology, saying it oversampled rural voters in the last election.

This time around, the USC-Dornsife poll shows Biden leading by 11 points nationally.

However, the race tightens to 5 points when voters are asked about their social circles and to 1 point when voters are asked who they expect others in their state will vote for. That survey suggests Trump would once again win the Electoral College in 2020."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523426-positive-trump-polls-spark-polling-circle-debate

[Captain Zero]

13. This. See my post#10 above

fyi

[RobinA]

14. Yep

For some reason, certain Trump voters like to mess things up. My nephew is one, and he's not like this in any other walk of life. They like Trump BECAUSE he is destructive. The census hasn't been commented on much because of all the other disasters, but I would be willing to bet it's a bloody mess. My nephew is young yet, but the combination of how they are taught Civics (or not taught Civics) and the Internet has done them a disservice. I tell him he doesn't want to live in a failed state, but he just smirks. I think part of it is they just take it for granted the US will roll on no matter how much they hack away at the parts they don't like. But it's a system and you can't just destroy one part of it without affecting all the other parts.

I never thought I'd say this, but I'm starting to be glad I won't be around in 30 years. We're f*cked.

[Ferrets are Cool]

4. I've said it a few times this week and will continue

Polls are useless and it is also useless to put any stock in them. The only people who profit from them are the ones who operate them.

[onecaliberal]

5. Republicans cheat bigly.

[Thekaspervote]

15. This..they work on percentages. Had the dem vote been tallied completely and fairly those

Percentages would have been closer to what they projected.

27% of the SO FL vote lost, and around the nation in blue areas. I would point to AZ as an example where there weren’t a lot of gop shenanigans mainly because they thought they had it locked up. The totals and the polls are close, as they were in a other red states

[onecaliberal]

19. The real question is why were polls in red states in line with the vote but not in blue states?

The answer is republicans CHEAT!

[WyattKansas]

27. That is why they have been able to maintain power and control for decades now.

That is also why our governments are so out of step with the American People, along with the overwhelming conservative (now radical fringe) bias in the media over nearly all issues. Fucking Reagan was NOT a savior or goddamned counter-equal to FDR!.. He only brought destruction for most Americans.

The Democratic Party should seriously consider amplifying each Party's records on all issues and voice their ideals that does not single out individual groups that end up demonized, but increases the well being of all Americans without being pigeonholed by Republicans.

[Amishman]

6. It's a lack of trust in social institutions

There is a huge chunk of this country that does not trust the government, companies, organizations, charities, or anything really.

Not surprising they won't answer polls, all too easy to think the legitimate pollster is something fraudulent trying to social engineer more information from you in order to steal your identity.

That group seems to be growing. On my bad days, I lean that way a bit myself.

[kurtcagle]

11. I disagree

The issue ultimately comes down to touchscreens. The polls generally aligned with reality when you were dealing with mail in voting, even in places like Arizona which has used mail-in voting for several years now. Where the polls were significantly off was in electronic voting. If one vote in 30 was electronically switched under the covers to favor Trump, they would be in line with the polls and the paper ballots, which would, in turn, imply that four to five percent of the votes seemingly cast by Republicans were actually Democratic votes in the first place, which would be much more consistent with the pollsters.

Remember, the pollsters generally act as a check on bad behavior at election times, and when the polls seem to be radically off in the aggregate I'd argue that the polls aren't the problem. Moreover, if your goal is to cheat, one way to do so is to make people distrust the accuracy and veracity of polling.

[crickets]

31. Thank you. nt

[uponit7771]

42. +1

[Codeine]

12. Technology killed polling.

Only technology, harnessed in new and innovative ways, can save polling.

How? Fuck if I know. But clearly the current paradigm is finished.

[BainsBane]

20. their industry should be ruined

if they can't figure out what they are doing, their polls are useless, even counter-productive.

[stillcool]

21. re-count the votes...

every time my checkbook is off, that's what I do, and I always find the error of my ways. Of course, totally impossible suggestion,...even bordering on conspiracy, to suggest a quick once-over of the vote counts. No, just accept the results as gospel. Over, and over, and over. Don't people get tired of it?

[Thekaspervote]

22. FYI: Moody Analytics has called every race correctly since 1980, less one. They called it for Biden

Months ago, very accurately right down to the counties. I will be looking at their predictions from now on.

If you care to dive into this long white paper it explains a lot

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update

[Crazyleftie]

23. Another possible reason...

The polls in Oregon, Washington and Colorado were correct. Why? Paper ballots!!! Suspicious? YES!!

[Thekaspervote]

25. Exactly!

[SomedayKindaLove]

28. Ding!

Polls could be off because the vote counting is off.

Just like when exit polls showed Kerry won in 2004. Everyone in the media asked what is wrong with the exit polls. No one really asked if the vote counting could have been wrong.

How did the polls do in 2018?

[DeminPennswoods]

35. Pollsters got Biden's numbers pretty much correct

The Indies/3rd party voters, seem to have gone for Trump. And Trump drew out a lot of "unlikely" voters. Of the 3 people in line around me on election day, there were 2 of those. They got the message to turn out on election day and they did.

I think the real problem is getting the right turnout model. Maybe the LV model needs more work or pollsters need to present different LV models along with also providing the RV numbers.

[LAS14]

37. The problem is that a big chunk of Trump voters are hostile to our institutions.

Why would they support the efforts of pollsters, given their attitudes to MSM? They either lie and say they are Biden voters or say they are undecided (e.g. Susan Collins in Maine). Or they just don't answer the phone in disproportionate numbers.

I don't know what's to be done about this.

[BusyBeingBest]

44. That's how I think too. They see poll companies as liberal-leaning enemies

same as they see the media. They distrust anything that isn't coming from their conservative media sources or social circles. Asking them to be honest is a bridge too far.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

40. Did THESE people really vote for Obama?

I read this article in 2008, but never forgot it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-road-western-pennsylvania/

Excerpt:
-----
So a canvasser goes to a woman’s door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she’s planning to vote for. She isn’t sure, has to ask her husband who she’s voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, “We’re votin’ for the n***er!”

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: “We’re voting for the n***er.”
-----

[Thrill]

43. Imagine voting for someone, you're embarrassed to tell people

Says more about you than even hateful ass Trump