PA!!! Biden lead now MORE than remaining ballots! Mathematically ELIMINATES trump!

[Roland99]

Biden lead: 45,673

Ballots remaining: 44,800

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

[LisaL]

1. That site does not have an accurate estimate of how many ballots are actually remaining.

NT

[Roland99]

3. if anyone has a better site, I'm open. It's been used by a wide variety of sources I've followed

[BumRushDaShow]

8. I just go on and use the state's website

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

They hadn't been updating that frequently earlier but today they have actually been updating, even with small batches (they have updated at least 4 times the past couple hours.

[LisaL]

11. But they are not reporting the number of outstanding provisional ballots either.

From what has been reported in the news, PA has more than 100k of provisional ballots.
The election board website only shows 16k of provisional ballots as counted.

[mvd]

17. Not to worry about those.

They won’t all be counted and not enough of them to do away with Biden’s lead. PA has been called by virtually everyone.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. They have a dashboard that has some of that data

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

If you scroll down to the center of that page, there is a link in the text that says "Click here to view reports" and if you click the link on the "here", it will bring up all that data in that webpage window with arrows on the side (the one on the right says "Next" ) where you can horizontally scroll through each page of data.

[LisaL]

33. They don't have provisional ballots on that dashboard.

But PA has a large number of provisional ballots still not counted.

[certainot]

37. limbaugh said something about a 470,000 vote problem but i didn't get the details, so

that means to the trumphumpers that anything less than that is irrelevant

[BumRushDaShow]

39. Yeah they do

(full page view)




(zoomed-in view)



The state is using MS BI which is some Microsoft "data visualization" plugin thing for their website so on page 6 of their data sets, there is a little scrollable table that shows the provisional ballots for each county, including "counted", "partially counted", "rejected", and "unprocessed".

I don't know how well this site displays, if at all, on a phone or other mobile device, but the data is there.

ETA - and apparently how they are doing this is if a county has started working on their provisionals and reporting to the system, then they will include that on that table. If they haven't, then the county won't be listed and that is apparently the case for here in Philly, which apparently has not reported their provisionals yet (I know they had to finish up some of the leftover Divisions not tallied from the voting machines and tackle some more mail-ins).

[LisaL]

42. Those are only from counties that started counting them, like you said.

From what I read on the news, Allegheny alone has close to 30 k they will start counting on Wednesday.

[BumRushDaShow]

43. Correct. But your assertion was this

They don't have provisional ballots on that dashboard.

And yes the site DOES have provisional ballot data. This is the "official" data sent by counties to the state. Not what some media outlet is guessing about. I expect if you want data for any of the individual counties, you can go to those county's sites and some may or may not be reporting provisionals, for example, I am not seeing Philly's provisionals on their site -

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/ResultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

As it is, wherever counties are in the process, the votes need to be certified by November 23rd (which is "20 days after the election" ).

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

46. According to this website, PA has 22,436 provisional ballots

that have not yet been processed at this time.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. So just fucking CALL IT already!

[Blue_true]

4. It has been called. nt

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Sorry, I keep losing track of what's been called and what hasn't.

[Blue_true]

10. Georgia and North Carolina are the only states that have not been called by anyone. nt

[LisaL]

13. North Carolina will go to Trump.

GA won't say how many outstanding ballots they have so it's hard to call it for that reason.

[Blue_true]

14. North Carolina hasn't counted some ballots yet. So the state hasn't been called. nt

[LisaL]

16. It will still go to Trump.

NT

[Cha]

41. & I'm waiting for Arizona to be

called again after the final tally so it's Definite after they finish counting all the votes & ballots.

[Blue_true]

47. I believe that is very close, likely this week. nt

[Cha]

49. YAY.. another milestone!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

9. It might be confusing and expensive to start calling Pennsylvania "already".

Think of all the license plates and mail boxes that would have to be changed.

[jmowreader]

34. If that's what it takes to get rid of Trump, it's well worth it

[Yavin4]

6. Math has a liberal bias.

Everyone knows that.

[IllinoisBirdWatcher]

7. WAIT. Watch Billy Bar find 101% of the remaining ballots. N/T

[jcgoldie]

12. So maybe you have a recent thread on this but I cant find it...

Whats the similar situation in AZ at the moment? ... out of PA GA AZ thats the one that has seemed tenuous for a few days...

[LisaL]

15. Nothing changed about AZ.

They are still counting.

[Roland99]

18. AZ *just* updated. Biden lead down to 13,766

AZ
Biden: 1,652,716
trump: 1,638,950
Other: 51,073

New Biden: 366
New trump: 820
New Other: 40

% New Biden: 29.85%
% New trump: 66.88%
% New Other: 3.26%

Diff: 13,766
Remaining (Est): 47,810

Trend: trump is averaging 57.6% he needs 65.1% of the remaining

[mvd]

19. Any idea where those were from?

AZ still seems very likely Biden, right?

[Roland99]

22. EDIT: Looks like the last 4 updates were from Pinal, Navajo and Pima. Pima the largest with 7k

[mvd]

23. Was the newest update from a conservative county?

That would explain the higher Trump percentage.

[Roland99]

25. Pinal had 900 an hr ago. Last update was only 63 from Navajo

[mvd]

27. Ok thanks

Not too bad then.

[Demsrule86]

32. Yes it may be around 10,000 or a bit higher but Biden is going to win.

[jcgoldie]

20. ouch

DO we know the nature of the 47810 outstanding? I mean like where and when they were cast?

[BumRushDaShow]

28. I would think that if people voted for Mark Kelly

then they certainly would have voted for Biden at the top of the ticket, especially since he seems a bit to the left of Sinema.

Hell... AZ was able to do something that we haven't really been able to do here in PA and that is to get 2 elected (D) Senators in with overlapping terms. We have only had 2 Dems when either one was elected and the other had been appointed to fill out a term (i.e., Harris Wofford back in 1991 after John Heinz was killed) or one was elected and the other switched parties (i.e., Arlen Specter back in 2009).

[OnDoutside]

44. There does seem to be an amount of Repubs who voted for Biden but Repub down ballot. Even

thought the voted red down ballot, it does give hope that they at least have some pangs of remorse by voting for Joe.

[BumRushDaShow]

45. Yes

We had quite a bit of ticket-splitting here in PA this year too, similar (but sometimes opposite in terms of which party was selected for which positions) of what happened in 2016.

It seems that 2008 was a bellwether in terms of the number of GOPers who did vote for Obama, which I think in that case was them doing it more as a vote for Biden and a rejection of Palin.

One of the issues that I have brought up in other threads (for current "down-ballot" choices for both Congressional seats and state legislative seats), is that in both red and purple states, the lines that were drawn for those seats have generally been gerrymandered in favor of the GOP, and other than the rare occasion (as happened here in PA in 2018 where the Congressional lines were redrawn), they are still in their gerrymandered configuration until such time when the 2020 census is completed and the process of redistricting begins anew. And that would be the only way to break this grip, if the appropriate people are in place at the state level.

For example here in PA back in 2010/2011, we had a GOP-controlled governorship/Executive branch, GOP-majority state legislature (both chambers), and a GOP-majority state Supreme Court when the lines were drawn. In contrast, in 2020/2021, we will have a Democratic-controlled governorship/Executive branch, GOP-majority state legislature (both chambers), and Democratic-majority state Supreme Court, so hopefully that will offer some leverage when it comes to redistricting.

This is a critical piece because whatever happens in the next year or so will impact the next 10 years. Some states have already been able to pass legislation and/or state Constitutional amendments to address the issue of "fair districts" including using non-partisan commissions to assist in drawing the lines.

[louis-t]

35. MAGATS say "KEEP COUNTING!!!1!!11"

[Mystery sage]

26. So what your telling me is....

He is sooooo done that the steak been forked and eaten.
The fat lady sang her last note.
And the party is over right?

[Kid Berwyn]

29. Conman's Dilemma

Reality.

[Pepsidog]

30. Putin won't let him concede.

[Rizen]

31. I'm so glad he won PA!

Imagine if he didn't and we were still waiting for AZ etc.

[KentuckyWoman]

36. Ya but there's the 592 ballots

You know, the ones where people didn't hand write their address that was already pre-printed on the envelope and isn't required by the law anyway?

That decision won't be in until Thurs or Fri and you know... that could make ALL the difference.

[Blue Owl]

38. K&R

[Cha]

40. Face it Assface Dirty donnie.. the

Majority in PA just aren't that into to your LIES about Joe Biden.