NBC/WSJ poll: Obama maintains lead, but Romney within striking distance (LOL!) - updated

[ProSense]

Last edited Tue Oct 2, 2012, 07:42 PM - Edit history (1)

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama maintains lead, but Romney within striking distance

By Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor

On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Barack Obama maintains his national lead over Mitt Romney, but the Republican nominee is well within striking distance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

But among a wider pool of registered voters, the president is ahead of Romney by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

<...>

What’s more, by a 2-to-1 margin, these voters have a negative reaction to Romney’s comment – caught on tape from a fundraiser back in May – that “47 percent” of Americans are dependent on government and believe they are victims.

Why the race is closer among likely voters
Among the full universe of registered voters in the poll, Obama leads Romney with African Americans (95 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (winning seven in 10), women (56 percent to 40 percent), and independents (48 percent to 35 percent).

- more -

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/02/14186700-nbcwsj-poll-obama-maintains-lead-but-romney-within-striking-distance

So Obama is down a point among likely voters (Romney is up a point), Obama is up one point among registered voters, and Mitt doesn't stand a chance among African Americans, Latinos, women and independents, but hey...Mitt is in striking distance!!!



Updated to add:

NBC/WSJ: Obama By 3 Points Nationally, 57 Percent Say Economy Is In Recovery

Presdient Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 3 points amongst likely voters nationally, 49 percent to Romney's 46 percent, in a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.

"For Obama, he’s ahead at a time of growing optimism about the economy and nation’s direction," NBC's FirstRead blog wrote. "For Romney, it’s a 'margin of error' contest that comes as interest in the upcoming election lags among key Democratic constituencies versus four years ago." There is evidence in the poll that Americans are feeling better about the economy -- 57 percent of registered voters said the nation is recovering while 39 percent said it was not. Just a two weeks ago NBC/WSJ asked the same question, and only 51 percent said it was recovering, while 45 percent said the opposite. More from NBC:

The poll – which was conducted Sept. 26-30 – comes after intense scrutiny and TV-ad attacks on Romney’s “47 percent” comment, in which he said that percentage of Americans don’t pay income taxes, are dependent on government, and believe that they are victims.

After hearing a full description of that comment, 45 percent of registered voters said it gave them a more negative impression of the GOP presidential nominee, versus 23 percent who had a more positive view.

<...>

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nbc-wsj-obama-by-3-points-nationally-57

Mitt is toast!

[nc4bo]

1. Talk about muddied waters.

The muck is getting deeper and deeper.

I am so longing for a broken dam effect.

[Redlo Nosrep]

2. It's Just Common Sense (Eye-Roll)

Nah, the Mittster already has it in the bag:

"...I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense." (MORE)

http://www.livetradingnews.com/las-vegas-has-romney-in-the-lead-87797.htm

If you can't believe a former Libertarian vice-presidential nominee who's now an odds-maker in Vegas, who CAN you trust?

[gkhouston]

3. Okay, I guess they've realize people won't buy the "tied" meme for much longer.

Striking distance... sure, if Romney's got arms like Gumby.

[ProSense]

5. LOL! n/t

[hlthe2b]

4. wow.. they really had to work that likely voter algorithm... to drop it from 7 to 3 points..

So, what? "Likely Voters" include only those with residences in the reddest part of each state?

[Hutzpa]

6. I just saw this on Hardball

and I must say, the glee on Chuck Todd's face is like a kid at a candy store, he is desperately trying to make this a close race.

[WI_DEM]

7. Just wait the MSM will be in full Mittens ecstacy tomorrow night about his 'comeback'

[ProSense]

9. They're working overtime on Mitt's image. n/t

[ProSense]

8. Updated OP. n/t

[Honeycombe8]

10. I think the Likely Voters poll nos. matter more.

Many of Registered Voters won't vote, and don't historically vote. A lot of young registered voters, for example, plan to vote, but don't get around to it, stats show.

[ProSense]

11. Maybe, but

the sampling can show bias. This is what Republicans fear.

<...>

The overall voting age (18 and older) citizen population in the United States in 2008 was 206 million compared with 197 million in 2004. Of that total, 146 million, or 71 percent, reported being registered to vote. That's slightly lower than the 72 percent who reported being registered to vote in the 2004 presidential election, but does represent an increase of approximately 4 million registered voters. The percentage of those registered to vote that actually did so was slightly higher in the 2008 election (90 percent) than in 2004 (89 percent).

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/voting/cb09-110.html

[0rganism]

12. leading > tied > virtually tied > dead heat > striking distance > ... ? ... > go home loser

it's pretty clear what's happening, just a question of how long the media wants to draw this thing out in hopes of ginning up ad revenue and viewership.