Too Early to Call?

[NanceGreggs]

Not for me – I’m calling it now: Donald Trump will NOT run again in 2024.

The most obvious reason for not doing so is what Mary Trump pointed out; he won’t set himself up for another potential humiliation.

He lost this election – and he’ll be even less of a vote-getter four years from now. His “base” wasn’t enough to re-elect him, and that base has been eroding rather than expanding. And the Republican party powers-that-be are not going to run a candidate they know can’t win.

Four years is a long time in politics – long enough for investigations into Trump’s business dealings, tax returns, financial transactions, et cetera, and the ensuing indictments that flow as a result thereof. Seeing The Donald walking in and out of courtrooms on the nightly news does not exactly inspire confidence in a second run at the White House.

Trump-humpers are the most easily-manipulated voters in the country. They will be easily distracted by the next shiny object the GOP dangles in front of them – and dangle they will. They’ll convince the oh-so-easily convincible that they have a ‘new and improved’ candidate who represents all of Trump’s racism, misogyny, xenophobia, and outright disdain for the Constitution and the rule of law – but knows how to express those things in more politically correct terms.

The GOP will never take Trump back as a candidate, which leaves him only one option – to run as an independent, which will split the Republican vote and thereby ensure another Democratic landslide.

There is no “win” in the GOP backing Trump in 2024, and there is no “win” in refusing to do so. Between a rock and a hard place – and isn’t that exactly where the GOP deserves to be?

[malaise]

1. One more prediction

He'll croak before then anyway.

[duforsure]

5. I agree Malaise,

He looks like hell , and he'll be lucky to make it until then.

[trusty elf]

11. Crooooooak !

[malaise]

12. Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Love you Trusty Elf - long time no see

[mdbl]

34. ROFL!

[mercuryblues]

42. The frog definitely wore it better

[airmid]

29. Or be in the dementia ward

[malaise]

31. That is a real possibility

given his father's medical history

[Thekaspervote]

2. Mary T has been spot on so far.

[Cha]

3. trump just wants Donation$$$$ for

2024.. that $400 Something Million$$$ Debt to China or wherever isn't going to pay itself..

It has SCAM Written All Over It.

That's exactly where they put themselves.

Thank you, Nance

[634-5789]

4. You can't run for Office from Prison.

[SheltieLover]

6. This!👆

[Silent3]

9. Actually, yes you can while in prison

For federal office, definitely. For state offices, that can vary by state.

Getting on the ballot might be trickier of course. Your party might not accept you because you're in jail, so you might have to settle for running as a third-party candidate or a write-in.

It would sure be interesting to find out (not that I want to find out by actually living it!) how our system would deal with it if a person was successfully elected while serving prison time.

[mdbl]

35. Oh I would not put it past repugs to endorse him in jail

they have looked the other way for every other criminal act, why not?

[lastlib]

46. Lyndon LaRouche did it.....

Ran for president in 1988. A real peach of a guy......

[obamanut2012]

24. Yes you can, including for President

It's happened more than once.

[Tanuki]

39. Keith Judd ran for president from prison in 2012 and got 41% of the vote

in the West Virginia Democratic primary.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Judd

...."In 1999 Judd was convicted of two counts of "mailing a threatening communication with intent to extort money or something of value"[5] and sentenced to 210 months (17½ years) in federal prison. The conviction has been falsely connected to litigation involving the University of New Mexico[6] which was a civil rights complaint he initiated.[7] His actual crime involved postcards that stated "Send the money back now, Keith Judd, Last Chance or Dead." and a package containing a semen stained Playboy, a knife inside the magazine, a key chain, and his father's military discharge papers. He also sent letters to jurors after his trial.[8] He has appealed his conviction no fewer than 36 times, but each appeal has been dismissed for various reasons.[9]
....
As a perennial candidate, Judd has thrice run for president in the Democratic Party's primaries. Judd first did this in the 2008 election cycle, and has continued to run in both cycles since. Each of the times he has run, Judd has managed to qualify to be included on the ballots of at least one Democratic Party primary or caucus.
.....

Judd filed to run for president again in the 2012 general election,[16][17] and attained ballot status in the West Virginia Democratic primary.[18][19] On May 8, 2012, Judd won 41% of the primary vote in West Virginia against incumbent Barack Obama, a higher percentage of the vote in one state than any other primary opponent of Obama had hitherto achieved in 2012 (a figure later surpassed by John Wolfe, Jr.'s showing in the Arkansas primary).[20][21] While this showing would normally have entitled Judd to delegates at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, state officials expressed some uncertainty as to whether Judd had completed the required formalities, such as filing a slate of delegates and completing paperwork.[22] Judd, who did not qualify for any other primary ballots, contested the ballot count, alleging that ballot workers suppressed the actual total (which he said showed him in the lead) in an effort to cover up an Obama loss.[23]...(more)

[JI7]

44. Because OBama is Black

[Silent3]

7. I don't think he'll *actually* run, but might toy with it, act like it's very possible that he will

Just for the grift opportunities, for the rallies, to fuck with other Republicans who'd like to announce their intentions for 2024, etc.

But actually face another possible loss, no.

And besides Mary Trump's predictions, Donald Trump has been in a cognitive decline. At his best he's always been a mental mess, of course, but he's been getting worse with age. Think of the mess he'll be another 2-3 years from now.

[pwb]

8. I am thinking the Trumps committed many crimes in office too.

He was not accused of them yet so not sure if a Pardon would cover them? They are all squirming and I love it. My bad.
I Love New York.

[tritsofme]

10. I have no reason to believe the so called Republican establishment would be any more successful

in the 2024 primaries than they were in 2016.

I think Trump is the prohibitive favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination, that party is practically a cult of personality at this point.

[C Moon]

13. By 2024, there will be other Republican liars who will bury his chances.

[Beakybird]

22. Exactly! Other demagogues will ride the disinformation bandwagon.

[Iterate]

14. Elections are a money pump. He won't walk away from that.

That's not to say he would ever be a nominated candidate, and he's clearly never had an interest in governance.

I'm hearing myself agreeing with you, but with a less structured and typical outcome. I see the outcome more as a malignant cyst, a conman leveraging that layer cake of reality-deniers, a post-enlightenment third party without a party or a candidate. It's untethered, disruptive, and he can serve his own whims.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. He'll start a PAC or a super-PAC & it will pay officers' expenses like travel and meals and .... nt

[GoneOffShore]

18. He and Kanye could get together. Yeah, that's the ticket. Total diversity.

Maybe get Dinesh D'Souza, Diamond and Silk, Michelle Malkin, and Tucker KKKarlson to help. And that Brendon Straka guy.

So many overinflated egos in one place could cause a singularity. A black hole of id.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

15. Prediction...

He will never have a good day again.

[Sherman A1]

25. Has he had any good days ever?

I seriously doubt he has.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. tRump has always lost the popular vote. . . . nt

[Meowmee]

19. Please let it be so!

[disalitervisum]

20. Listen, you still don't understand what you're dealing with.

For forty years I have been telling everyone what a psychopathic madman trump is, and nobody has listened. Forget your rational explanations and legal theories of politics. You are fucked.

[NanceGreggs]

26. We know exactly what we're dealing with ...

... which is why we just won the election.

[Sherman A1]

27. I don't disagree with your summation

He was, is now and always will be a horse’s behind.

With this son of a ......... I rule nothing out.

[Beakybird]

21. His mental and physical health are deteriorating. Impossible.

[gademocrat7]

23. K&R!

[uponit7771]

28. K&R, even if he does NOT run as an independent Trump will be king maker in the kGOP unless he goes

... to jail.

[sunnybrook]

36. Prediction on the kingmaker aspect

It will be pay to play. Those who were loyalists? He couldn't care less about that. He would endorse someone like Kelly Loeffler for millions of dollars. Laundered of course.....

[uponit7771]

38. +1, he wont do it for free

[airmid]

30. And we don't even know half of the heinous acts this admin has perpetrated on this country. It will

start coming out as soon as he is out of power.

[Atticus]

32. This might be controversial, but I'm predicting a Gohmert/Kid Rock GOP ticket in '24. nt

[Jon King]

33. It won't be Trump in 2024

He has so many legal and financial issues. His organization will be bankrupt by 2024. I think our insane Florida governor Desantis will be the next one they try to elevate. Think the evil of Trump, just much shorter and with even less charisma.

They are doomed nationally and must be content to cause trouble on the state and congressional level. AZ and GA rapidly changing demographics will keep them blue forever. Then comes NC and TX. The suburbs in all these places are going very fast. I highly doubt any of us ever see another Repub President in our lifetimes.

[mdbl]

37. OH you TEASE!

[DFW]

40. Given Trump's obviously poor health....

Anyone who saw his "appearance" in the Rose Garden last night (hmm, well, it was night my time!) saw a not-quite-there man who moved like he had gout in just about every joint, and a skin pallor that hinted at a few grey whales in his ancestry. He seemed to be running out of yellow dye for his hair, as well, although cutting down on that stuff might be beneficial to his health.

But, just for argument's sake, let's say he accidentally meets up with a physician who gives him some GOOD advice for once, and he's still alive in four years.

What are his options? He starts running now? For what? For president? Does he nominate himself four years in advance, or does the Republican Party still get to exercise its option to hold primaries? And what does he do for four years in the meantime? Rallies are out for now. He just broke with Fox Noise, and no other station wants him on except maybe to edit him into reruns of Sesame Street. I guess he could always try to demand that the city of Scranton, PA furnish Biden's birth certificate.

No one will finance his next big political run. Just ask Newt Gingrich how much Sheldon Adelson gave him after his week of "front-runner" was over and forgotten. He can start a phony campaign with fine print saying he can grab any contributions for personal use. He can try to pay off his debts that way, but it probably won't go far.

After a year or two of realizing his one term in office was what is best expressed in Bridge as "four no trump," even half of his MAGA fanatics (those not yet killed by Covid-19, that is) will realize that, in fact, he didn't MAGA. The "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" scam doesn't work if the ones you are trying to scam are onto you, and Donny Boy, they are SO onto you by now.

If he chooses the option (smartest for him, but who said he was that smart?) to just fade away, go back to hosting TV shows (if any station will give him one), and try to get debt forgiveness in exchange for silence, he'll piss off his base for maybe three months, until their next phony messiah shows up.

One always does.

[CTyankee]

41. I'm waiting for Meania to officially pack her bags and get her divorce then he'll be really alone.

He won't really have any supporters. In debt, sued right and left, his health ebbing away,probably losing his golf club so no golfing, no book to "write" because nobody really cares....the list goes on and one.

[Liberal In Texas]

43. Oh, I think he'll run. He may not end up on the ticket but he'll at least kick-off a campaign just

so he can rake in money from the contribution gravy train. When that dries up (I'm going to guess 6 to 8 months on that) he'll not announce he's quitting or anything, he'll just divert his grifting to some other enterprise. That will probably be about the same time as the GOP realizes they'll have to find another snake oil salesman.

Deadbeat Donnie will probably try that "alternative to Fox" pay subscription TV that will fall as flat as his wine, steak, or casino business. Fox was successful because it was free and available on every cable TV platform there was. This sub-TV where the suckers have to pay for it every month will never fly.

[mtnsnake]

45. "Trump-humpers are the most easily-manipulated voters in the country."

Truer words were never spoken.

[Orangepeel]

47. he'll "run" if he thinks he can fleece a few more believers

[dalton99a]

48. Kick