!This is how you know Romney is getting crushed in Ohio!

[kpete]

WED OCT 03, 2012 AT 09:25 AM PDT
This is how you know Romney is getting crushed in Ohio
by
schobel94


Yesterday afternoon I was browsing through the new We Ask America polls for Nevada and Missouri, and saw at the bottom of the page that they planned on releasing an Ohio poll later that afternoon. I excitedly awaited the new numbers, as I am want to do, but was deeply disappointed when, alas, no Ohio poll came forth. What happened? Well, this morning I checked the site again to see if it would come out today and here's what they had to say:

Later today: Ohio results. UPDATE: The Ohio poll which we had hoped to publish yesterday was being used with the permission of a private client. That client later retracted their permission, so we’ll be doing a new poll there soon on our own dime…probably after Wednesday’s debate.

http://weaskamerica.com/...

They retracted their permission? Why would they do that? Well, the answer is obvious. We Ask America usually conducts polls for republican/conservative clients, so when these guys took a look at the poll, they must have seen Romney being dismantled (their previous Ohio poll had Obama +8) and decided to retract their agreement with We Ask America allowing them to publish the poll publicly for fear it would make Romney look bad, well, more bad than he already looks anyway. I can't say for certain this is the case, obviously, but it seems like the most plausible scenario to me. Romney is doing so bad in Ohio, conservatives don't even want anyone to see just how bad it is.

********************

update to add:
*** Does Romney think about pulling out of Ohio? Given our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia -- as well as our other state polls over the past few weeks -- here are Romney’s best opportunities to win a battleground (in order): NC, FL, CO, NV, VA, WI, IA, NH, and OH. With Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio all increasingly heading to Obama’s column, that puts the president at 265 electoral votes. As a result, it means that Romney must run the table on the remaining states (NC, FL, CO, NV, VA, WI) to get to 270. And it raises the question, especially if Romney is unable to change the race tonight: Does Romney consider pulling out of Ohio with its size and all of its media markets, to put those resources in the remaining states? It’s a question that Boston has to be pondering right now. By the way, out of all of our new state polls (of FL, OH, and VA), Romney appears to be the best shape in Florida – not only by margin (down one point), but also in Romney’s fav/unfav (46%-43%) and Obama’s job approval (48http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/03/14199048-first-thoughts-why-tonights-debate-could-be-so-crucial?lite%)

[joycejnr]

1. Good job kpete, great analysis! n

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Nice Work Exposing The Mendacity Of The GOP

Too funny....

[Tippy]

3. have they since released it ?

[BlueStreak]

5. I don't think so. The client retracted permission.

I think they are saying they aren't going to EVER publish that particular set of results but they will do another poll that is not paid for by Romney/Rove.

[julian09]

4. They don't want donors he has left, bailing out on him too soon

[BlueStreak]

6. How bad could it be?

Probably double digits. After all Marist already had the race as +8 and the Columbus Dispatch had it at +9. If it were in single digits, they would have let it go.

Who is the client? It could certainly be Romney. Or it could be a right wing newspaper (Cincy Inquirer maybe). But my guess is that it was Rove, and he was hoping for numbers close enough that he could milk his millionaires for some more cash.

[BlueStreak]

7. Re: "Does Romney pull out of OH?"

Last edited Wed Oct 3, 2012, 03:21 PM - Edit history (1)

No. He can't do that. Not if there are no other states that are swinging back his direction. If he pulls out of OH, he has given up the election because, while he might win FL with all of the election fraud going on down there, he isn't going to win all of these, NV, VA, IA, NH, CO, NC. SO walking away from Ohio is essentially a concession that is is over. If he pulls the plug on Ohio, it is a waste of money to advertise and campaign ANYWHERE.

What he will do instead is maintain status quo at least through the first 2 debates to see if there is any chance of a big turn-around. If there is no big move then he'll quietly shut down the campaign and conserve cash, which he can keep after the campaign.

(Technically, the remaining money can only be used for political campaigns. But technically, SuperPACs can't attack individuals. For a person of Romney's tax evasion skills, this would be a piece of cake. He simply creates a separate corporation with him and Ann as the sole shareholders. The the campaign hires the new corporation as political consultants until the money is all drained. If I were a billionaire who gave him money, I would be really pissed, but I bet he does it anyway.)

[xxqqqzme]

9. Probably but we

will never know anymore about the playing out of that scenario than we know about the last 3 years of his tax returns.

[DallasNE]

10. Florida Is Hard To Understand

Recent polling has shown Romney slipping with Jews, Hispanics and seniors and that is a huge block of the Florida vote. Granted, there is overlap in Jews and seniors as well as Florida having a unique blend of Hispanics -- but still. Something about Florida doesn't make sense.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Florida Is A Purple State

The Republicants control the governorship, both houses of the state legislature, the congressional delegation, and one senate seat.

[demwing]

12. "Something about Florida doesn't make sense"

That's true about my state every day, Dallas, every damned day

[n2doc]

13. Ton of t-bagger crazed fundies in Florida

As well as Castro-obsessed ex-Cubans. They are the republican base and will never vote for a Democrat.

[n2doc]

14. WI no longer a "battleground" state

Obama leading by nearly double digits there. The only legit battleground states left are NC and Fl. And soon, perhaps MO, IN, SC,AZ....battlegrounds only in the sense that Europe was a battleground as Patton and our allies roared through it in 1944-1945.

[freshwest]

16. How is WI polling on unseating Lyan Ryan? He needs to be out of power altogether.

[Howler]

15. No repuke has ever won the presidency without Ohio. :)

"No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Plus, whoever has won Ohio has won the last 11 presidential races. Ten point leads aren't small, they're gigantic."




http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cenk-uygur/obama-polls-lead_b_1927955.html

[secondwind]

17. Where's PA in all of this?

[Jennicut]

19. PA is done for Romney, especially with the Voter ID law

out of the picture. Could be repealed but I doubt it. The polling there has not been good for Mittens at all.

MI, WI, and PA are looking pretty solid for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Locked Up

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

[skeewee08]

18. Thanks for posting kpete