Florida, Florida, Florida -- keeping our eyes on the prize

[Samantha]

Today, Nate Silver shows Florida as a 58.7% Obama win.

On September 29, I posted a thread here with Nate Silver's prediction Obama had a 69.4% chance of winning Florida:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021438787

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6% chance of an Obama win. President Obama is down 8.7% (EC) since September 29; Romney is plus 8.8% (EC) projection.
I am demoralized. I do have hope that the resulting debate controversy moving now into a different direction coupled with the impressive jobs number report issued Friday will have a very positive impact.

And then we have, of course, heard about the death panels Romney/Ryan have put back into the political discussion, potentially frightening seniors away from Obama. Not true of course, but the literal truth seems to be a non-existent commodity in the Republicans' quest for the Oval Office.

But this kind of swing in Florida in between September 29 and today shows just how fluid that state can be on a dime. Since many election commentators have said it is difficult to see a path to 270 for Romney without Florida, I had hope that that 69.4% edge Obama had September 29 would grow to an extent there was no possibility Romney could win (or "take&quot that state.

The good news is that regarding the popular vote President Obama still has a projected 51.1 percent of the popular vote. So when you hear Mitt Romney say his goal is to obtain 50.1 percent of the vote, if Obama's numbers hold or increase, Mitt won't get his 50.1. That is just the "arithmetic" of it but the voting "anomalies" could threaten reported election day numbers, of course.

Keep your eye on the prize and do whatever you can to keep Romney out of the Oval Office and to give President Obama his earned second term.

Sam

[porphyrian]

1. . n/t

[Samantha]

2. Thank you -- I really am terribly concerned about this (n/t)

[porphyrian]

4. If we all vote, and all of the votes are counted, the President will win this election.

Don't quit, but relax a little. This race is not as close as the media is portraying it and a number of smart people here are pushing the media spin, which can be convincing. We've got this. Don't lose hope.

[Samantha]

6. Well, the thing that is really eating away at me is the "irregularities" that might throw it

You are not worried about that? And I just saw a new thread about the Florida ballot and the reduced number of voting machines in Democratic areas. That thread is disturbing as well. I think we are seeing the "DWIT" motto shoved into high gear in Florida (Do Whatever It Takes -- just another way of phrasing their 2000 motto, win at all costs). I truly believe that in Florida and Ohio it just is going to get more and more aggressive between now and election day.

Thank you for posting on my thread. I hope you respond to these thoughts. I am trying to get my morale back up. Matters were not helped last night when my Republican brother in Florida told me he had signed up to be a poll watcher election night. He is a big-time Republican supporter with low scruples.

I believe Romney is in Florida today from what I hearing on MSNBC right now ... he is wearing his populist suit again today, playing the role of the empathetic man.

Sam

[porphyrian]

9. Florida has had these problems since 2000. This time, republicans have been busted...

...trying for illegal voter registration and they are being investigated. It is unlikely that any voting "irregularities" will go unnoticed or unaddressed. Voter disenfranchisement is nothing new to Florida and I am sure that the ACLU, as well as other groups, are on this like white on rice. I also know that the Leon County (Tallahassee) Supervisor of Elections, Ion Sancho, is a good man who is respected by members of both political parties. Leon County has been using electronic scanning to count votes since at least 2000 and Mr. Sancho participated in a study showing how electronic voting machines can be hacked. If he is confident about the results of the election, it makes me feel confident about those results.

Republicans may try to steal this election. They can only do it if the race is close enough to hide their shennanigans statistically. The media is lying about how close this race is because they have a profit motive for doing so. I believe we can all be cautiously optimistic about this election. As I said, if we all vote, and all of the votes are counted, the President will win this election.

[Samantha]

11. Thank you for this info -- particularly that about Ion Sancho

I have been here since 2001 and I am very familiar with the 2000 election. I followed that campaign for 2 - 3 hours daily starting when the campaign itself got underway. When the matter finally ended, I was surprised to hear myself thinking, I have learned so much about stealing an election, I believe I could steal one myself should I be so inclined! I also watched closely the same irregularities popping up on election night in Tennessee, and followed to its conclusion the DOJ's investigation of those "irregularities."

I think that and what happened in 2004 -- Ohio and 25 percent of that vote being dropped -- has convinced me Republicans have no shame. They are determined to win this and they don't care how they do it.

I do believe we are all smarter as a result of how we have been played in the past; what I don't know is whether or not the Republicans have some new plays. In short, I am totally paranoid about what is going to happen in that latter regard. I do honestly believe that President Obama will prevail if the literal election is allowed to unfold with the true voter intent of all participants; what I remain insecure about is that I believe the Republicans absolutely will not allow that to happen. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Thank you so much for your response.

Sam

[porphyrian]

12. Thank you. n/t

[hrmjustin]

3. Obama will bounce back from this moment.

[Samantha]

7. I so hope so -- they have conducted a really, really smart campaign so far

I am sure they are aware of all the problems.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[HockeyMom]

5. They will try to STEAL Florida

Disenfranchise as many voters as possible. Be very, very wary of the Fraud Governor. I heard that he is still looking to purge MORE "illegal" voters. This close to the election, will these voters have the TIME to prove they are citizens? Because of this, and the photo ID, look for far more provisional ballots.

We need to prepare for this, and have people watching out for corruption.

[Samantha]

8. I have heard the reports on that

I think they will continue right up until election day to think of any thing they can to hold down the Democratic vote. And when the last of the votes have been tabulated, if some "adjustments" need to be made, I think they are prepared to deal with that as well.

That is why it is so important that President Obama's numbers climb way back up there, keeping the media from saying the race is to close to call. He has to win to the extent his margin of victory is too large to steal.

Sam

[HockeyMom]

10. I agree 1000%

[dsc]

13. I am pressuming this is a missprint

or else Nate is having a very bad day. Today, Nate predicts 310.6% chance of an Obama win. President Obama is down 8.7% (EC) since September 29; Romney is plus 8.8% (EC) projection.

[PCIntern]

14. Yeah, I thought it was 410.6%....

Sounds about right...

[LiberalAndProud]

15. It's a nice percentage, if you can get it.

[Samantha]

19. You are correct, dsc, I worded this sloppily because I was tired when I posted (I never learn)

Here is what I wrote:

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6% chance of an Obama win. President Obama is down 8.7% (EC) since September 29; Romney is plus 8.8% (EC) projection.

Here is what I meant:

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6 electoral college votes. President Obama is down 8.7 electoral college votes predicted September 29; Romney is plus 8.8 electoral college votes.

In other words, since September 29th, according to Nate's predictions on two different days, he has decreased his electoral college votes for President Obama downward 8.7 and awarded 8.8 electoral college votes to Romney.

Okay, I think I straightened out that part, but who knows, I am still tired.

Here is the other point: on that September 29th date, when I wrote the original thread, he gave Obama a 69.4 percent chance of winning Florida. As of this very moment, I see it has changed again even from when I submitted this second thread this morning:

Currently Nate's prediction as I type this response:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

He has Obama at 307.6 electoral college votes prediction (down 12.5 since September 30th)
He has Romney at 230.4 electoral college votes prediction (up 12.5 since September 30th)

IT IS DOWN FURTHER THIS EVENING FROM WHEN I POSTED THE SECOND THREAD THIS MORNING! So what we are left with is we went from 319.3 electoral college votes predicted for Obama September 29th, and now Nate has him at 307.6 electoral college votes. He predicts 230.4 electoral college votes for Romney.

Further, he currently predicts a 55.4 chance of Obama carrying Florida -- down from 69.4 percent chance on September 29th.

The crux of the problem: Florida has 27 electoral college votes. If you subtract 27 from the current 307.6 prediction of electoral college votes for Obama and add them to Romney's current 230.4 electoral college votes, this is what you have:

Obama 280.6 (still an Obama win without Florida)
Romney 257.4 (close but no cigar with Florida)

But that is only as of right now a 23.2 point difference -- a much tighter race than the one predicted by Silver September 29th. If Romney moved Virginia (13 EC votes), Wisconsin (10 EC votes and also the home of suspect election vote tallies recently) and Iowa (7 EC votes), then you would have:

Romney at 287.4 electoral college votes
Obama at 250.6 electoral college votes

Yes, I grabbed those 3 swing states out of thin air just to make a point. That point is this is a much tighter race since September 29th and we need to be aware.

And the big question for me: what is going on in Florida that Obama's chances of winning keep slipping downward?

Okay, sorry for my sloppy wording earlier.

Sam

[davidn3600]

16. I keep telling people not to rely on Florida

It will literally go back and forth in the polls. It always does this.

Florida is a true swing state through and through. It will stay a toss-up all the way to election day. I dont care what the polls say. We wont know who will win this state until the votes are counted.

This state just elected a governor two years ago that ran a company that was fined over a billion dollars for medicare fraud. Yes, you better believe that this state can and could vote for Mitt Romney.

[Michigan Alum]

18. And as we've seen even when people don't actually win in this state, funny things happen here.

[Samantha]

20. Yes, I see that -- check out my post above regarding Obama's slippage there

His chances of winning the state since September 29th have gone from a 69.4 percent chance of winning to this evening's 55.4 percent chance of winning according to Nate Silver. What a disappointment....

Yes, I am hoping it goes back up, but as you suggest, one cannot predict Florida.

Sam

[Michigan Alum]

17. A ton of Obama ads in sw Florida - only a few Romney ones.

It's pretty Rebuplican in this area though.

[Godless in Seattle]

21. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado

Mitt can have the Cannibal State. Obama still wins with 300+ EVs.