Thesis: it's really only about Florida and Ohio. The GOP needs to win both. All else is distraction.

[Bucky]

Wisconsin isn't important and neither is North Carolina. Colorado can go either way and it just won't matter. In the end, this election, like the last several elections, is only about if the Republicans can win both of the two big swingers. If they do, they win. If they don't, they lose.

I don't really believe that, but I just wanted to feel what that sounded like in my mouth. It sounds cynical. When you're an optimist, the truth always sounds cynical.

[yardwork]

1. That's why the Republicans took over OH and FL long ago and installed corrupt secretaries of state

The Rethuglicans have been stealing elections in OH and FL for a long time. The people voting there need to kick out the Republicans at the state level.

[Bucky]

3. No, we need a strong GOP because Obama's coming after our guns! And, and, and... GAYS!!!

[yardwork]

6. Well, all right then!

To be serious for a minute, I grew up in Ohio, and while there are certainly sections of the state that are hard-core right wing there are also very liberal sections, particularly around most of the cities. I think that voter suppression and outright voter theft has been going on in Ohio for a long time, manipulated by corrupt secretaries of state who got into power when a lot of moderate Ohio voters weren't paying close attention and voted in Republicans that they thought were old-timey moderates.

Now we have the same problem in North Carolina. For the first time in 100 years the Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, and it looks like they're going to get a Republican governor elected now too, and suddenly a lot of things are going to change for the worst in NC.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. Those are the 2 critical states indeed.

Which is why the Repubs have been focusing a lot of voter supression in Fla.

[exboyfil]

4. Obama can win

while losing Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

He needs New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada in that case.

In other words Romney needs one more state after the big four. I don't think the other states are a distraction if Obama has enough resources to contest them in addition to Ohio and Florida.

[abumbyanyothername]

12. +1

Talked with my mom this morning and per her report two Iowa votes for Obama are already in the mail.

[jsmirman]

5. So... if you live there... get out there MONDAY

see pinned threads at the top of the board...

[LiberalAndProud]

7. One more argument to retire the Electoral College.

I am livid that my vote is a whole lot less important than a vote from Florida or Ohio. It's messed up in every conceivable way.

[mucifer]

8. Exactly, why should my Chicago vote mean nothing?

[Bucky]

9. That said, the EC is cutting our way this year. Obama could win 49% to Romney's 51%

I'd still support fixing the EC system, but it'd be fun to watch Freeper heads exploding if the GOP, with its overconcentrated Southern and western votes, lost the White House on an 18th century technicality.

[LiberalAndProud]

10. That may be what it takes.

It didn't matter that Gore won the popular vote and lost* (cough-cough) the election. If we ever had an election where a Republican lost due to the EV travesty, the system might change.

[morningfog]

11. It isn't less important, really. Mathematically and politically where

the individual states for this election year, OH and FL are must wins if Mitt has a chance at all. Those of us in deep blue states, our votes are just as important to provide the security of the EVs to make the current situation possible. Deep red state Democratic voters are too awash in repubs surrounding them to change that, at least this year. The maps change from year to year and election to election.

[LiberalAndProud]

17. It is less valuable.

Look at the price per vote (thank you Citizens United.) My vote is absolutely expendable. Don't show up at the polls? No big deal, you're just one red pixel on the electoral map. And it does consign the minority voter in any red state to red state hell. The notion that your opposition vote makes no difference cascades down to keep local thugs in office. Democracy in action, my ass.

[morningfog]

13. It is true, with a small caveat.

Mitt simply cannot win without at least one of FL or OH. But, to win with just one of them, he would have to run the board on the other swing states: NV, CO, NH, NC, VA, and WI.

Mitt doesn't realistically have a chance to win WI or CO. So, mathematically he could win without both FL and OH. But, political reality he can't.

I think the worst case scenario is if Obama won NH, WI and OH and Mitt won NV, CO, NC, VA and FL. 269-269. The Repub Congress would decide. It would be a nightmare.

But, I think that scenario is far from likely, nearing impossible.

[AtomicKitten]

14. Rmoney's path is much more narrow than Obama's.

Today 538blog has O's chances of winning at 80.2%

[porphyrian]

15. They may steal Florida, but they are unlikely to get Ohio.

Honestly, I'm not sure they'll get either this time.

[Stargleamer]

16. You're forgetting Virginia. . .

The GOP needs to win in Virginia too.

[morningfog]

18. MItt has to win CO, VA, NC, OH and FL to win.