Reuters Poll Obama (D) 47% Romney ($) 45%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

"I would say that if the debate was a game-changer, we would see Romney continue to make gains," she said. "He's narrowed the race but he doesn't seem to be overtaking Obama."











http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/07/mitt-romney-poll_n_1946604.html

[JoePhilly]

1. The only national polls to have Romney ABOVE 47% have been Rassmussen.

I'm pretty sure that statement is accurate.

Romney can't get above 47%, unless its a Rasmussen poll. And he's still only done it maybe 2 or 3 times.

Obama has been at 48% or above, more than 30 times in the last 2 months.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Like That Piece Of Information.

[JoePhilly]

4. I've been wathcing the realclear averages of all national polls.

Mitt can't get above 47%, and Obama is above 47% regularly.

I watch the ranges. High and low. Obama's lows are close to Romney's highs.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. So, again, Romney's #s seem to be leveling out...

That's now both Rasmussen and Gallup showing the race stabilizing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Learn By Observing. Got This From A Poster At Intrade

For a 7-day tracking poll taken 4 days after a major event (the debate), as the moving average frame shifts forward, a new post-event day replaces a pre-event day. Therefore, the only way for the moving average to be constant from one day to the next, as Gallup was today, was if the post-event day included (Saturday) has approximately the same statistics as the pre-event day removed (the previous Saturday). A plateau in the moving average indicates a plateau, or possible a reversal, in the post-debate individual days.

[RedSpartan]

6. I like this. Makes sense.

Thanks for posting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. In Layman's Terms Obama Did As Good Today As He Did Last Saturday.

.

[RedSpartan]

8. Exactly.

In line with Romney getting a bump after the debates, but reverting down again quickly to where things were beforehand.

[bluestate10]

9. The problem is a good debate performance by the President would have ended the race.

As things are, unemployment and job gain data may have ended the race in the President's favor. The information that came out on the deficit also helps the President. But having written the passage above, the President can't stand up in the next debate trying to play a game of defense. The President's research team must have researched every single minute of Romney's business life and Romney's record as Governor. The President must take that information in and rip the legs from under Romney each time Romney attempts to lie to make himself look good.

[karynnj]

10. Nicely stated - and a very good way to view how a moving average really works

It will be interesting to see where all these polls are n days after last Friday (when they showed a jump). That would be the day the Thursday poll will fall out. Given the movement of the polls, that was a day unlike those before it and after it. Had this been a real shift, every one of the days after would incrementally move the number up.

It could be that there was still a small increase from the pre period that gets lost as the number is rounded to whole numbers.