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still_one

(92,206 posts)
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:42 AM Jan 2021

It is hard for me to understand how Joe Biden could win Maine by 53% to 44%, while in the

same election Collins won against Sara Gideon by about the same amount.

On the issues Sara Gideon is almost 100% aligned with Biden.

I wonder why there is such a disparity, and what the people of Maine were thinking to vote for Biden overwhelmingly, but not for Gideon




36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It is hard for me to understand how Joe Biden could win Maine by 53% to 44%, while in the (Original Post) still_one Jan 2021 OP
Some people Turin_C3PO Jan 2021 #1
I understand the incumbent advantage, however, the last four years Collins has pretty much rubber still_one Jan 2021 #12
Yeah, you'd think. Turin_C3PO Jan 2021 #14
simple answer Botany Jan 2021 #2
Nope. TwilightZone Jan 2021 #8
We don't use touchscreen machines in Maine jpak Jan 2021 #9
There's no vote flipping going on. Turin_C3PO Jan 2021 #10
Comparing Kentucky with Maine is NOT comparable still_one Jan 2021 #15
McConnell does not have a 13% approval rating in his home state. apnu Jan 2021 #27
I agree KY is very very very red but still it saddens me that its people will vote agains their ... Botany Jan 2021 #31
They aren't necessarily voting against their best interests StarfishSaver Jan 2021 #36
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Jan 2021 #34
Power of incumbency and the brainwashing that "checks" on the President's party needed in Congress hlthe2b Jan 2021 #3
Susan Collins is a longtime Senator from Maine. It's the same way Manchin wins West Virginia JI7 Jan 2021 #4
I agree with you about the focus of resources Buckeyeblue Jan 2021 #11
The down ballot results should be investigated. That's for sure. judesedit Jan 2021 #5
Between 90-98% of incumbents are re-elected. Ferrets are Cool Jan 2021 #6
Thank goodness that wasn't the case with trump still_one Jan 2021 #16
But, it saddens me to think that an R had to be this bat-shit crazy NOT to be re-elected Ferrets are Cool Jan 2021 #21
Well said, and you are not alone that thinking still_one Jan 2021 #22
... Ferrets are Cool Jan 2021 #23
Susan Collins ran an effective negative campaign against Gideon jpak Jan 2021 #7
ok. Gideon was a state representative, so she should not have been unknown to the people of Maine still_one Jan 2021 #18
I saw many many more negative ads against Gideon jpak Jan 2021 #32
A lot of us assumed Gideon would win, but I am not from Maine, and a lot of those who still_one Jan 2021 #35
This message was self-deleted by its author jpak Jan 2021 #33
Collins got a boost after she voted against Amy Barrett forSC on grounds it wasn't fair to Democrats wishstar Jan 2021 #13
Mitch gave her his permission for her to vote that way. Bluepinky Jan 2021 #30
Name recognition...many will simply vote for the candidate whose name they know. sop Jan 2021 #17
For one thing, See-Saw isn't Indian-Armenian. For another, Republicans who voted against Trump but GreenPartyVoter Jan 2021 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author pinkstarburst Jan 2021 #20
Your last point is worth considering, however, I think the example be more comparable if instead of still_one Jan 2021 #24
Maine is super weird. apnu Jan 2021 #25
People vote for different reasons and not always issues. It is hard to knock off a sitting incumbent Demsrule86 Jan 2021 #26
I wasn't aware that Maine had ranked choice voting still_one Jan 2021 #28
Never Trump republicans Dem4Life1102 Jan 2021 #29

Turin_C3PO

(13,998 posts)
1. Some people
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:44 AM
Jan 2021

always vote for long time incumbent Senators. It doesn’t make sense but it happens a lot.

still_one

(92,206 posts)
12. I understand the incumbent advantage, however, the last four years Collins has pretty much rubber
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:00 AM
Jan 2021

stamped everything trump has done, and if nothing else, wasn't this election a referendum on trump?

Botany

(70,510 posts)
2. simple answer
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:44 AM
Jan 2021


BTW how did McConnell with a 13% approval rating win in KY and how did
Trump pick up 11 million votes from 2016?

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
8. Nope.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:51 AM
Jan 2021

They don't use machines in Maine.

If we brush off races like this with "oh, it's just the machines", we will continue to lose them.

Besides, if they were going to change votes for Collins, why not Trump? It's the reverse of Trump's argument -- Dems hacked the race at the top, but let the Republicans win down-ticket races. Sure, that makes a lot of sense.

"BTW how did McConnell with a 13% approval rating win in KY"

Because replacing one of the most powerful people in government with someone who would start at the bottom would be stupid, even if everyone hates him, from a political standpoint. He's also a Republican. In many states, that's all that's required.

South Dakota made that mistake and they've been paying for it for 15 years. They replaced Daschle, one of the five most powerful people in Congress and someone who did more for the state than anyone, with John Thune, who hasn't done anything since.

"how did Trump pick up 11 million votes from 2016"

More people voted and he got a similar percentage. It's not complicated.

Turin_C3PO

(13,998 posts)
10. There's no vote flipping going on.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:55 AM
Jan 2021

It’s a conspiracy theory. Why would they switch votes to Collins but not Trump? As for McConnell, though they may hate him, he has two big advantages. 1) He’s an incumbent that brings pork to his state and 2) he’s not a Democrat, which is all it takes sometimes to win in deep red states.

apnu

(8,756 posts)
27. McConnell does not have a 13% approval rating in his home state.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:27 AM
Jan 2021

He needs only win the popular vote in KY. As an incumbent he has powerful advantages. Kentucky, as a whole, is deep red, so that's another powerful advantage he has. And finally, there is the single issue voter problem. So long as McConnell stays on the positive side of the handful of single issues for KY Republicans (God, Guns, Gays), they will elect him even after his own death.

Botany

(70,510 posts)
31. I agree KY is very very very red but still it saddens me that its people will vote agains their ...
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:48 AM
Jan 2021

... own best interests time after time. The 13% approval rating I heard last fall was
on how did the people think of the job he was doing in the Senate.

 

StarfishSaver

(18,486 posts)
36. They aren't necessarily voting against their best interests
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 11:53 AM
Jan 2021

They have lots of interests beyond basic economic ones. Voting for these people advances many of them.

Response to Botany (Reply #2)

JI7

(89,250 posts)
4. Susan Collins is a longtime Senator from Maine. It's the same way Manchin wins West Virginia
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:45 AM
Jan 2021

Collins was hurt with the Kavanaugh thing but then she started campainging on how she opposed ACB and that along with some some other issue helped her to win.

This is a race we could have won and should have focused on more compared to South Carolina and Kentucky which don't currently have demographics favorable to Democrats.

Buckeyeblue

(5,499 posts)
11. I agree with you about the focus of resources
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:58 AM
Jan 2021

We were never going to win KY. SC was a long shot. If we had focused on Maine, it might have made the difference. It's hard to say.

Ferrets are Cool

(21,106 posts)
6. Between 90-98% of incumbents are re-elected.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:48 AM
Jan 2021

Money

By far the most widely recognized and probably the most significant advantage enjoyed by sitting members of Congress is the large amounts of campaign contributions they are able to raise, especially in comparison to those who run against them. The table below summarizes the average campaign resources available to various groups of candidates in House and Senate races in 1998:
U.S. House U.S. Senate
Incumbents $772,016 $5,578,470
Challengers $207,107 $2,442,660
Open-Seat Candidates $607,703 $2,336,939
SOURCE: Common Cause. “House & Senate Races: Incumbents, Challengers, Open Seats.”

Ferrets are Cool

(21,106 posts)
21. But, it saddens me to think that an R had to be this bat-shit crazy NOT to be re-elected
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:07 AM
Jan 2021

In 2004, I was SURE that America was smart enough to NOT re-elect a war criminal AND the man who had single-handedly allowed 9-11, but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. He was put back into office with even more of a mandate than in 2000.

The American voting population can be extremely confusing. (being kind)

jpak

(41,758 posts)
7. Susan Collins ran an effective negative campaign against Gideon
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 09:50 AM
Jan 2021

And lots homie "I am a real Mainer" ads.

Gideon did not respond effectively.

PS I donated and voted for Gideon.

still_one

(92,206 posts)
18. ok. Gideon was a state representative, so she should not have been unknown to the people of Maine
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:04 AM
Jan 2021

jpak

(41,758 posts)
32. I saw many many more negative ads against Gideon
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 11:34 AM
Jan 2021

And many many more feel good Collins ads than I saw for Gideon.

I really thought- based on polling - that Gideon would win.

I have a gut feeling that the old."I am a real born and raised Mainer (Collins) and you are not (Gideon)" argument swayed a lot voters in the privacy of voting.

still_one

(92,206 posts)
35. A lot of us assumed Gideon would win, but I am not from Maine, and a lot of those who
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 11:51 AM
Jan 2021

assumed Gideon would win I suspect also were not from Maine



Response to still_one (Reply #18)

wishstar

(5,269 posts)
13. Collins got a boost after she voted against Amy Barrett forSC on grounds it wasn't fair to Democrats
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:01 AM
Jan 2021

She trailed in polls but she won support of those on fence by seeming to be bipartisan saying she couldn't vote to confirm Barrett so close to election as that would be unfair when Repubs had given that as reason to block Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland.

Bluepinky

(2,272 posts)
30. Mitch gave her his permission for her to vote that way.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:40 AM
Jan 2021

He worked it out ahead of time to allow her to appear bipartisan and independent, while still getting enough votes from other Republicans for Amy Barrett’s confirmation.

Susan Collins is a Republican stooge.

sop

(10,190 posts)
17. Name recognition...many will simply vote for the candidate whose name they know.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:04 AM
Jan 2021

I recall one local election in Miami where the less popular Democratic challenger won because he had the same last name as the favored longtime Republican incumbent.

GreenPartyVoter

(72,377 posts)
19. For one thing, See-Saw isn't Indian-Armenian. For another, Republicans who voted against Trump but
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:04 AM
Jan 2021

not party down ballot. And as others mentioned, her seniority gives a small state a seat at the table. I voted that way once myself for Olympia Snowe many moons ago. And lastly, Maine is big on checks and balances.

Response to still_one (Original post)

still_one

(92,206 posts)
24. Your last point is worth considering, however, I think the example be more comparable if instead of
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:24 AM
Jan 2021

using Kanye as the example, to instead use a George Wallace type

Of course both examples of Kanye or a george wallace are extreme and unlikely for a Democratic nominee in today's world.

However, Maine in presidential elections has been consistently Democratic, and as you point out also consistently for incumbents within their state



apnu

(8,756 posts)
25. Maine is super weird.
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:25 AM
Jan 2021

Much of New England has fierce independent streaks. Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire -- all have their own unique politics that doesn't fit well in the two party system we have. Collins and Sanders are, in many ways sides of the same coin. Maine is weirdly conservative, but not in the lockstep, beholden to the good-old-boy South, or South wannabes in the West, way. They have their own brand of it and demand their representatives to buck the system.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
26. People vote for different reasons and not always issues. It is hard to knock off a sitting incumbent
Sun Jan 24, 2021, 10:27 AM
Jan 2021

I tnink ranked choice played a roll too.

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