General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan someone explain why Biden said there was nothing we can do to change the trajectory
of the virus over the next 6 months? Right-wingers are having a field day with that comment. I could understand if he said over the next month. But 6 months?
Biden warned on Friday that as the outbreak continues, theres nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months. The president has repeatedly warned that the situation is likely to worsen before it improves.
While it wasnt immediately made clear what projections Biden was referencing, one key projection from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that the U.S. could reach 600,000 Covid-19 deaths by March if states were to ease social distancing mandates. However, the models current projections show Covid-19 deaths plateauing just above 560,000 Covid-19 deaths by late April.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-says-nothing-can-change-the-trajectory-of-covid-pandemic-over-the-next-several-months.html
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)But getting back to the point, "Several months" means three or more. So it's irrelevant to them, because it can also mean 6. If we start following Biden's plan, we should see results in a month.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)I followed one of them, so I'm lurking in on their conversation.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)uponit7771
(90,346 posts)lame54
(35,292 posts)drmeow
(5,018 posts)if they keep saying Biden can't improve things for 6 months and things start to improve in 3 it makes Biden look good.
Squinch
(50,954 posts)the ones that insisted for months last year that it would be 60,000 dead. Their estimates are not actually based on any relevant data.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)It's because they're criticizing a Biden tweet against Trump that said, We're eight months into this pandemic and Donald Trump still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)are just now beginning to get tested/show symptoms/move through the multi-week process of being hospitalized and/or recovery. Meanwhile, many of those presymptomatic people have been spreading the virus to other people who then will begin the same process with a 7-14 day lag. It can be a long timeline from first exposure to final outcome.
There is also the more problematic issue of slowly changing peoples behavior. The CovIDIOTS are going to have to understand they need to mask up, social distance. They won't do this overnight.
Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)Mike 03
(16,616 posts)But I don't know.
When we've had major lockdowns in states, hasn't it usually taken six to eight weeks to see those waves start to come down?
I'm worried about people who get their first vaccination shots not understanding they still need to mask up and that they may be able to contract and spread the virus even if they don't get sick.
There might be factors he's taking into account that we're not completely clear on.
I think regionality will play a big role, with certain states doing better fairly quickly, but others continuing to deteriorate due to poor governorship.
Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)I can even accept two months. But "several months" gives them too much runway to complain about,
Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #16)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)which, surprisingly, doesn't seem to be attracting too much attention.
Mariana
(14,857 posts)They're going to 1) lie about it and 2) complain about it.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)niyad
(113,325 posts)experts (not simply our wishes for this to be over) that we are entering the most severe cycle. Your belief that things should be better in a month is based on what scientific evidence?
You know, it takes about six weeks to truly eliminate a flea problem. The corona virus is much more complicated.
Hav
(5,969 posts)Right now, the numbers are so catastrophic. With something like 100k new cases every day and not to mention so many active cases that can infect others, you simply lose control over it. All the measures to check who came into contact with someone who got infected, which is the basis for containing the disease, cannot be performed on a necessary level. The numbers need to come down to a controllable level and the winter season doesn't help.
LizBeth
(9,952 posts)Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)Last edited Sun Jan 24, 2021, 11:11 AM - Edit history (2)
Trump did nothing for over a year. Biden is working hard but Trump left a mess.
Tablets are so annoying sorry for the garbled words!
bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)RAB910
(3,501 posts)not the disease itself
marmar
(77,081 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)But again, several months means more than three. I don't understand why we won't see results in a month's time. Someone mentioned that he was referring to the economic picture.
marmar
(77,081 posts)Promise low, deliver high.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Jus to be clear.
marmar
(77,081 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Hugin
(33,154 posts)the fraudulent plans and malfeasance.
It's a realistic estimate.
The supply and effectiveness of any vaccine campaign were vastly oversold by Trump and the 'open-er-up' crowd as a campaign theme and a means to jack the stock market with promises of a return to pre-covid normalcy.
IOW... A head fake. A con-job. Sold to an audience of Americans who only want silver bullet solutions to problems which may require a little sacrifice and inconvenience to fix.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)Since some governors want Biden to fail, I can see people like DeSantis (and the govs of Arizona, South Dakota and others) not following Biden's new guidelines, messing up the vaccination process, just to make him look like he's failing. I wonder if Biden is thinking about those sorts of "Black Swans" in making his estimates.
Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)mutated variants.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)Some are estimating that the UK strain will be the dominant obe by March. That new strain is much more transmissable then the current strain.
bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)We dont know if the vaccines will be effective against all the variants.
Wounded Bear
(58,662 posts)the problem is that in real time there are built in delays to the system. There are delays from infection to onset of symptoms to need for hospitalization to resolution, whether that be recovery or fatality. Basically the number of infections that happen today has set the number of fatalities we will see in 3-6 weeks in stone. Bending the curve takes time, because we're trying to fix something that has those delays built in.
Now, don't try to explain that to a RWer. Their eyes will glaze over when you try to tell them anything that can't be put on a bumper sticker.
Baitball Blogger
(46,725 posts)yardwork
(61,630 posts)Turin_C3PO
(14,004 posts)Six months is very possible. The vaccine program needs time to amp up plus peoples behavior must change. Id like to see significant progress in two months but thats a best case scenario, imo.
Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,986 posts)We are just now starting to vaccinate, it takes a bit to develop immunity. There are variable strains. Variable symptoms. Variable human behavior
Six months is reasonable
Irish_Dem
(47,119 posts)get the pandemic under control.
LizBeth
(9,952 posts)I guess it matters if that is what Biden was referencing.