Time to predict: Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, Toomey

[Bucky]

These are the only possible GOP votes to convict. I'm guessing in the end...

Guilty:

Romney, Toomey (call 'em the backbone and the one-about-to-retire)

Not Guilty:

Collins, Murkowski, Sasse (old faithful and the two with futures in the GOP)

I don't know. Murkowski might surprise me since she's made noises about leaving the Republican, but my Alaska friends tell me there's not going to be more respect than love for her in the Democratic Party.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Collins will be very concerned, but in the end

she will fold like a cheap lawn chair, like she always does.

[Rustyeye77]

2. If Collins says she "concerned"

my head will explode

[MyOwnPeace]

3. And I wouldn't trust Toomey

any farther than I can throw a potato chip......

[rurallib]

4. I have a couple of competing thoughts on this

If 45 Rs vote not to convict we will see the same old Donny who went on a rampage a year ago after not being convicted. Plus in essence they will be saying a fuck you to Mcconnell and in essence saying Trump is the head of something called the Republican Party.

Trump's instructions to the party will be to obstruct above all else.

Also Trump's threat to start the Patriot Party and primary Republicans will have real credence. If he is convicted that would take much of Trump's power away.

I happen to think that Rs in general do what they are told by an authoritarian which is Trump. Most of them are still scared shitless if Trump and do not now nor will they ever have the backbone to stand up to Trump.

But I think if they (r senators) don't convict Trump you will see a large exodus from the rank and file.

Thanks to Trump, I think they are screwed no matter what they do.

[Bucky]

5. Oh hell, we KNOW he won't be convicted.

I didn't know this (and I'm a government teacher) but legal scholars overwhelmingly say you can put an impeached officeholder on trial in the Senate if he's been impeached during his tenure. Hell, in 2017 and in 2001 there were still Republicans talking about impeaching (not just putting on trial over impeachment charges) both Obama and Clinton after they were gone.

"Believing in it until it cuts against them" is basically another way to say Republican.

I don't think for a second Trump's going to have much by way of followers in the Senate caucus. They'll protect him, but that's more about their fear of his movement. Half of them are fantasizing about getting out in front of that crazed mob and running in 4 years. Not just Hawley, Cotton, and Cruz, but also the sane-but-cynical ones like Rubio and Thune. You're right, they fear the Patriot Party bluff, but it won't amount to anything. They'll have two years of mob-pleasing obstructionism--the true believers will think it's God's will, the normal Limbaugh-Reagan type of hardcore cons will follow in kind for the easy PR points of "looking tough," and the merely conservative types will following along with the obstruction because it's the play they always go to when they're in the minority.

"I don't care who I hurt as long as it puts me in power next year" is basically another way to say Republican.

[rurallib]

7. you speak Republican well

[Bucky]

9. I live in Houston. I eat at their restaurants a lot.

You learn to blend in with their exotic culture

[lees1975]

6. There might be some surprises

Once the House Managers get to present the evidence. The disgust and outrage over January 6 has grown and the pressure will be on especially for those who are up for re-election in 2022 in states that are more marginal. With Trump's approval dropping into the tank the last three months he was in office, I'd say there will be some mighty soul searching as television ads and publicity put those images and flash those words. There might also be some "boots on the ground" aimed at putting some pressure on senators in marginal states.

The Trumpie factor is going to push some Republicans one way or the other. If they vote against Trump, they may get primaried but if they don't vote against him there's the fact that a majority of voters, even in many conservative states, who are going to be motivated to vote against them.

You're right about Romney and Toomey. Portman is also not running and maybe he really does have a conscience. Some Republicans are in positions in states where if they side with the Trumpies, they're doomed and if they side with the mainstream GOP they're doomed, like Johnson in Wisconsin, Bur in North Carolina and Rubio in Florida. They're toast whether they vote to impeach or not.McConnell hasn't backed away from his position that impeachment needs to go forward and he may stick his finger up to see where the wind is blowing. Sasse's future in the GOP is to pick up and become a leader of the Trump opposition, otherwise, he has nowhere to go. Collins is a confused old lady who won on a quirky first and second choice system and who knows or cares. Thune may be a yes vote, Grassley if he decides he loves his country more than Trump and maybe Blount (MO), Young (IN) and Cornyn (TX).

[Bucky]

8. "if he decides he loves his country more than Trump"

Not Cornyn. No way.

There's two things I think you're not using in your calculations.

(1) It's not about love or fear of Trump. These people are a tribe and, as much as they shroud themselves in the flag, it's not the American tribe. They love their party more than their country. I don't see how anyone could not see that over the past four years or in the blink-&-you'll-miss-it speed that they ALL flipped from denouncing Trump to adoring him in the summer of '16. Do you remember a couple weeks back when McConnell was signaling he was down for impeach and remove after the inauguration? He's still listed as undecided on the NYT website. Then, once he got a sniff of which way the sheep were stampeding, he flipped over to vote against the trial not even being legal now. Leading to the other factor

(2) Fear rules these people. Fear of communism was driven by fear of McCarthy, not the other way around. When they faced the mob three weeks ago, it was existential. They now fear the mob (a mob that's now gradually shifting away from Trump and becoming headless). They try to grab power because they fear it turning on them. That's why they love guns; under the layer of Jim Jordan bravado, they're scared little children, scared of being ants in a world of boots. They'll take the most extreme anti-Democratic position because that's where the fear is coming from.

For that matter, I think Jim Jordan is probably the best candidate (not Hawley or Cruz) to take up the mantle of leading this Maga crowd. He conveys strength and oozes testosterone. I know he has a subordinate's sex scandal in his background somewhere. But I remind you, the opinion shapers on the right do not give a fuck about sex scandals when it's a Republican.