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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJack Welch’s Gallup problem
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/10/jack_welchs_gallup_problem/Jack Welchs Gallup problem
The polling company's surveys show unemployment dropping fast. Did the "Chicago boys" get to them, too?
By Andrew Leonard
Explain this, Jack Welch. On Wednesday, reports Gallup, the unemployment rate in the United States fell to an amazing 7.3 percent. Thats lower, by a large margin, than the 7.8 percent mark announced by the government on Friday and greeted with such suspicion by conservatives and former chief executives of General Electric.
Gallups number is a different beast than the figure produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its a rolling average of the last 30 days, updated every day. Over the past year, Gallups survey has occasionally indicated higher unemployment than the BLS in fact, back in March, some conservatives jumped on a Gallup report that unemployment was rising as evidence that the BLS was playing numbers games.
So we wonder what theyll say now. Because the really extraordinary thing about the Gallup number is how fast it has been falling. As recently as September 28, the daily tracking number registered at 8.1 percent which, by the way, was the same level reported by the BLS for August unemployment. But over just the next 12 days, Gallup sregistered a steady, consistent drop all the way down todays astounding 7.3 percent.
So is Gallup part of the government conspiracy? When were talking about the presidential election survey, thats a question that gets answered differently by conservatives almost every single day, depending on who is getting a boost from the numbers. (If the numbers are good for Romeny, Gallup is on the up-and-up.) So, lets assume that Jack Welch wont be sending any flowers to Gallup, this week, and someone, somewhere is already suggesting that Obamas Chicago Boys started threatening Gallup executives with waterboarding two weeks ago.
The rest of us, who live in the reality-based world, can only marvel. Theres no question that the sharp drop in unemployment reported by the BLS on Friday was surprising. To see Gallup report an even sharper drop is equally eyebrow-raising. But its also consistent with news about consumer confidence levels rising, the stabilizing housing sector and the boom in auto sales. Maybe Americans really are getting back to work.
Gallup here:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
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Jack Welch’s Gallup problem (Original Post)
babylonsister
Oct 2012
OP
Aw Geez. Let the conspiracy theories begin. But please allow me to celebrate!
Tarheel_Dem
Oct 2012
#1
Tarheel_Dem
(31,237 posts)1. Aw Geez. Let the conspiracy theories begin. But please allow me to celebrate!
cleduc
(653 posts)2. Roughly, ADP, a 3rd independent source also backs up the numbers
Do the Chicago boys control ADP and Gallop as well as BLS?
That would be quite the conspiracy
Johonny
(20,872 posts)3. Jack Welch can go tell the city of Schenectady about his employment knowledge
then he can go * himself. The guy destroyed GE in Schenectady.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)4. I thought the guy who heads Gallup
is some sort of Fundy Christian?
titanicdave
(429 posts)5. Outsourcer In Chief
of GE flipping out about the jobs numbers.........he can only think what is good for himself, not what is good for our country.......time for your shock treatment Jack..........or should I say......jackass