What does 50% more infectious mean? -- in reference to new COVID strains.

[Pobeka]

Please keep in mind this works like compound interest, compounding every time COVID is transmitted from one person to another (sorta).

For example, current rates of infection are hovering around 1.0, meaning one infected person infects only 1 other person.
At the end of 13 "transmission" cycles (time intervals), we'd expect to have 13 infected people, assuming no one has recovered.

A 50% higher infection rate means the rate of infection goes up to 1.5, meaning one infected person infects 1.5 other people on average.
At the end of 13 "transmission" cycles (time intervals, we'd expect to have 387 infected people, assuming no one has recovered.

50% more infectious in no way means we'd only have 50% more cases at a point in time.
---

When you see infection rates dropping, those are the old strains.
When you see a state had detected a hundred, or a few hundred cases of a new strain, those are only the detected cases, there are far more cases out "in the wild".

We are in a mad race to vaccinate, and get whatever protections we can from the vaccine to prevent serious illness and slow the spread.

Dropping mask restrictions and social distancing is just insane. We're so close to actually getting this under some kind of control.

This is why the CDC is urging states to maintain protections.

[FirstLight]

1. I've been seeing out of state plates throughout this mess...

that's what upsets me. I'll hear on the news that texas is blowing up and then see several cars in the next 2 weeks on vacation here...I'm like..."GO HOME!"

i wish we could somehow get travel restrictions under some fed control but the wingnuts would scream communism or some shit.

[empedocles]

2. The there is spring break???

[FirstLight]

3. well...and Tahoe is a resort "destination"

as long as people come here, from abroad and in the US, we are under siege IMO

we only have 86 beds in our hometown hospital for 22K ppl

[Pobeka]

4. Driving, flying. So much for idle pleasure trips, it is infuriating.

Especially when we're *so* close to getting it under some actual control if everyone could not make it about "me".

[FirstLight]

5. it is literally so infuriating...!

I dont go out much, but when I do the traffic is bad and the ski resorts packed...chp ticketing people on the side of the highway cuz they are playing in the dirty snow

i get it that folks need to get out...but traveling 100 miles for recreation is bullshit. Im in CA and the county sheriffs are huge MAGAs and made a statement that travel directives were NOT going to be enforced because they "believe in the Consitiution" It's ridiculous

[SergeStorms]

11. Do the Sheriff's cars have...

"To protect and serve" on the sides of their vehicles? Someone should point out their hypocrisy. I'd also ask where in the Constitution it states you don't have to wear a mask during a pandemic. I've read through the Constitution several times and I don't recall reading that part.

[roamer65]

6. It means it is 50 percent better at binding to cell receptors.

Either means more spikes per virus or a better spike protein.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Do not for a minute believe that the old ties that bind them - Abbott and trump

are gone. Trump wants biden to fail. I am appalled and furious that Abbott removed ALL covid restrictions. He is an utter lowlife murderer.

Great post!

[SergeStorms]

12. He thinks he'll make everyone forget...

how badly republicans have messed up their power grid. What the hell, what's a few thousand more lives (mostly Democratic voting minorities) when there's capitalism on the line?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Have heard that theory.. but in my mind, it's a double fail that

Proves he doesn't care about people at all.

[SergeStorms]

19. Precisely.

The only time republicans care about life (or at least they say they do) is when it's inside a woman's womb. They want total control of the fetus until it's born, then they figure their job is done. Whatever happens after that, COVID, starvation, child abuse, or any one of a thousand different ways a child can die, is not their problem. But those nine months in the womb? They'll move heaven and earth to attempt to control that. Flaming hypocrites.

[Pobeka]

15. I've come to that conclusion too. Abbott wants Biden to look bad, and is murdering people to do it.

I just don't see any other motive, dropping the mask mandate to the population is strong messaging to ignore any and all socially responsible protections to prevent the spread of COVID.

He knows what that will do.

I believe he's planning to use the death numbers in political campaigns, claiming Biden didn't get the vaccine out fast enough, and you need GOP leadership. And it'll be consumed by a huge percentage of low information voters. In an era where a swing of 2-3% can decide the outcome of an election, this strategy works.

[Elessar Zappa]

18. Just means we have to have a better strategy.

I don’t believe they’re smarter than us, I think we can figure out how to make sure their tricks don’t work.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. Agree. That's why we need a rapid response media/research team.

There are percentages on efficiency on how many of the vaccines you received were actually given to people. That falls squarely on Abbott and state gov.

Broken record, but wish Biden team would gather simple stats on vaccine ( % of pop vaccinated + % of supply administered)

[Lithos]

8. means that Abbott is an idiot

50% more will turn in to 100% more given the wider guinea pig audience....

[wnylib]

9. And more mutations that might affect

the effectiveness of vaccines. If they keep messing around like this, we could end up with a much more lethal strain.

[Lithos]

10. Such is how mutations go

And you are right. He's trying to wag the dog at the moment. Never has actually given an f* about how it affects anyone - just how it shapes his image.

L-

[wnylib]

13. Well it might come back to

bite him in the butt. It is possible to catch covid even if you are vaccinated and/or have had it once. It is even more possible to get it again if you get exposed to a new strain that is more resistant to the vaccine.

So he could get a stronger, more lethal strain. It would be the ultimate karma.

[Pobeka]

17. Absolutely. Nothing good comes from higher #'s of infections. nt

[Pobeka]

16. See my post #15, I don't think he's and idiot, i think it's a strategy. Evil to the core. n/t