The Strongest House Candidates In 2020 Were (Mostly) Moderate

[DonViejo]

MAR. 23, 2021, AT 10:21 AM

The Strongest House Candidates In 2020 Were (Mostly) Moderate
By Nathaniel Rakich

Filed under 2020 Election

Moderate politicians are becoming an endangered species. The most liberal Republican in Congress nowadays is still ideologically to the right of the most conservative Democrat, reflecting the fact that the median voters in each party are drifting further and further apart as well. But if winning elections were the only consideration, the parties likely wouldn’t be so eager to purge themselves of centrist members. It’s not an ironclad rule, but there is a lot of evidence that moderate candidates tend to perform better at the ballot box. And though the relationship may be growing weaker with time, an examination of split-ticket voting in the 2020 election suggests it’s still there.

Using data on the results of the presidential election by congressional district from Daily Kos Elections, I calculated how much better — or worse — each candidate for U.S. House did than their party’s presidential nominee. Assuming that President Biden and former President Donald Trump’s vote share represent how a “typical” 2020 Democrat or Republican would have done in each district, this gap gives you a rough measure of candidate quality.

As it turns out, the vast majority of House candidates performed about as you’d expect based on presidential partisanship. But when you look at the exceptions — the districts where Democratic House candidates most outperformed Biden, and the districts where Republican candidates most outperformed Trump — the strongest candidates tended to be incumbents with moderate voting records and personal brands that differentiate them from the national reputation of their party.

Let’s start by looking at the 10 congressional districts where the Democratic House candidates outran Biden by the biggest margins (excluding House seats that Republicans did not contest).

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-strongest-house-candidates-in-2020-were-mostly-moderate/

[Scrivener7]

1. No surprise there. Most districts are, by definition, moderate. Some prefer a more

left leaning candidate, some prefer a very right leaning candidate.

If we try one size fits all, we will lose every time.

But, by definition, most districts will be moderate.