EDIT: I predict Chauvin trial will end up a mistrial...they only have 2 alternates.

[Nevilledog]

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Tweet text:
Barb McQuade
@BarbMcQuade
With juror in Chauvin trial becoming ill today, decision to seat only two alternates for a lengthy trial during COVID is looking questionable.

[qanda]

1. Was that juror dismissed?

I think they took a break and the juror returned to duty.

[a kennedy]

15. Nope she came back, and was fine.......trial resumed.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I've seen lots of DUers worry about a mistrial when they should worry about an acquittal.

Mistrials are extremely rare (only 6% of cases that go to trials end in a hung jury and only 4% fail to make it to the jury - so, 10% total) but bad acquittals are not. That is far more likely to happen than a hung jury or a mistrial before it gets to the jury.

[Hoyt]

42. Don't think there much chance for acquittal in this one. Hung jury quite

possible, only needs one trumpster on jury.

Conviction of the lesser charge is possible. Video of 9 minutes on Floyd’s neck is too much for acquittal. But, who knows?

[SoCalDavidS]

2. A Sound Prediction

Probably a lot more likely than either conviction or acquittal.

You can't get 12 Americans to agree that Covid exists, so why would this be any easier to reconcile?

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Mistrials are extremely rare.

Only 6% of cases that go to trial end in a hung jury. Very, very rare.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/04/23/good-question-how-often-do-mistrials-occur-and-what-causes-them/amp/

[Nevilledog]

8. I'm talking about it not even making it to the jury.

Not having enough jurors for deliberation.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Okay. That's about just as rare. In fact, more rare (only 4%).

So, anyone who thinks it's likely to happen is just finding something to worry about.

If I were you, I'd be way more worried about him being acquitted than a mistrial because that is WAY more likely than it not going to the jury.

[Nevilledog]

25. We'll find out.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. Like I said, tho, you should worry about an acquittal.

That is far more likely and something I am still bracing for (though, I will readily admit, the prosecution's witnesses have been great).

[Nevilledog]

35. I'm not worried about it......I'm prepared for it.

[Ocelot II]

21. Why do you think that? It's really rare to run out of jurors.

If that happened obviously they'd have to start the trial over with a new jury, but it wouldn't have the same effect on the parties or the public as a mistrial resulting from a hung jury. (Btw, Minnesota abolished the Allen charge in the '70s.)

[Drunken Irishman]

27. I think entertainment has corrupted our understanding of the legal process.

In law shows, it's not THAT uncommon to see a mistrial over something. But in reality, it's extremely rare. It does happen, and certainly a mistrial could be granted before it even got to the jury, but that only happens about 4% of the time when a case goes to trial.

I think DUers need to stop worrying about a mistrial and start worrying about the acquittal possibilities. I think he'll be found guilty, especially after the witnesses the prosecution has shown, but an acquittal is a much more likely scenario than a mistrial.

[Alpeduez21]

30. i would counter that 10% is not 'extremely rare." (your figure not mine)

rare,mmmm maybe but extremely? No

[Drunken Irishman]

32. That's irrelevant.

It is extremely rare to have a trial end in a hung jury (which has been speculated in this thread) as only 6% of cases that go to trial end that way.

It's even rarer to have a trial end before it even reaches a jury due to mistrial (4%).

So, why devote energy to something that isn't likely to happen.

I'd be more worried about an acquittal than a mistrial because the odds of that happening is MUCH higher. So, yes, compared to all the other alternatives, it's extremely rare.

Not impossibly rare but rare enough not to worry about it.

[Alpeduez21]

34. Yeah, I hear ya. It is irrelevant.

I'm not really arguing your point. For some reason I got hung up on the semantics of rare or not.

I, too, am very concerned with acquittal. I kinda thought Epstein would be killed but I never figured they'd suicide him while on suicide watch. So nothing would surprise me.

[Nevilledog]

31. Mistrial hurts the prosecution.

The defense has the opportunity to change their strategy. They've now got the sworn testimony from the first trial, and will badger the witnesses with their inconsistent statements.

Mistrials (not all of them) are generally welcomed by defense attorneys......they can lead to motions to dismiss if the mistrial was caused by the prosecution; renewed plea negotiations; further investigation based on testimony*; change in questioning or defense strategy.

Look at how emotional the witnesses have been so far. Chances are that those same witnesses will not be as emotional the 2nd time....being questioned is not as scary because they've been thru it, they know the line of questioning so they're prepared for it, which can impact their demeanor when answering.

YMMV, but these were my experiences.



*In AZ we have something called the Victim's Bill of Rights which allows the alleged victim of a crime to refuse to be interviewed pre-trial by defense attorneys. Prosecutors were very effective at convincing victims to refuse interviews. I can count the number of victims I was allowed to interview before trial on one hand.

[Beachnutt]

3. If that happens the Rodney King uprising will look like

childs play in this country...imo.

[Jeebo]

4. I've been expecting a hung jury all along.

Out of 12 jurors, there's bound to be just one law-and-order "Blue Lives Matter" police apologist type among them who will not vote to convict Derek Chauvin under any circumstances. And that one is all it takes. This case is so compelling that there's no way they will acquit him either, though. Will the State of Minnesota go to all the expense and bother of trying him again after a hung jury? I hope so, because Chauvin really needs to do some hard time for what he did. Those other cops, too.

-- Ron

[Drunken Irishman]

7. No one should ever expect a hung jury. It's a very rare ruling.

Only 6% of cases that go to trial end in a hung jury.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/04/23/good-question-how-often-do-mistrials-occur-and-what-causes-them/amp/

[Jeebo]

29. I don't think of 6 percent as "rare" ...

That's more than one of every 20 cases. That's actually a fairly common outcome. And it's what I am expecting in this case. I hope I'm wrong and they convict Chauvin and those other cops too and send them all away for a long time because it's what is appropriate in light of what they did.

-- Ron

[Ocelot II]

5. I thought the juror was just briefly ill, not dismissed.

[Nevilledog]

10. You might be right.

Still, no way I would agree to only two alternates for a lengthy trial.....during a pandemic.

[soothsayer]

14. I thought not that lengthy? Like a month?

[Nevilledog]

16. Lots can happen in a month

I never had a month long trial without at least 4 alternates.

[soothsayer]

17. Ohhh

[qanda]

9. I know this may not mean a lot to some of you but predictions...

Of a hung jury, a mistrial or an acquittal are extremely traumatic to Black people. I would appreciate a trigger warning or something because this trial has me so shaken.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

23. I'm so sorry this is hitting you hard.

I find the play-by-play speculation unpleasant myself -- as if this were something to "win." It's so, so much more than that.

[qanda]

44. Thank you.

It means a lot that you took time to empathize with me.

[Solomon]

41. Thank you for saying this. It's really pissing me off. We have to go thru this every case.

White people predicting he will walk. Excuse me for saying it, but it really really pisses me off. Especially when you have a goddamned video as evidence. Not just one. But several.

[qanda]

43. It speaks to how unaffected most white people remain

If it's that easy to blithely predict a police officer getting off despite watching a man being murdered on camera, I don't know how to explain what's wrong with you.

[sop]

11. I agree. One or more jurors will find Chauvin's actions were justified. That's the world we live in

[bluestarone]

12. Just wondering who decides

on how many alternate jurors? The judge only?

[Nevilledog]

13. In 27 years I never had a judge or prosecutor object to # of alternates I wanted.

However, I believe the final decision would be up to the judge.

[bluestarone]

19. I personally would think 6 alternates would be appropriate

In a trial of this importance!

[grumpyduck]

18. Either way, this trial will show America

whether cops can get away with that behavior or not.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

24. They get away with "this behavior" all the time.

[Ocelot II]

28. I'm sure the prosecutors (whose first rodeo this is not) had reasons

for choosing only two alternate jurors, and it might be this: The more jurors you have, the more likely it might be that one of them goes rogue and hangs the jury. So let's say they chose four alternates instead of two, and in some freak occurrence four jurors got sick and they had to seat all the alternates (who also might not have been paying close attention during the trial because they didn't think they'd be needed). Now maybe you have a increased possibility of a hung jury just because you had to convince sixteen instead of twelve jurors. Wouldn't it be better to have to start a new trial before the jury deliberates and can't reach a verdict, which would create all kinds of angst and controversy that wouldn't occur as a result of just starting over sooner with a new jury? Maybe that's why they decided to take that chance and go with only two alternates.

[Nevilledog]

33. In AZ you don't know who will be an alternate until trial is concluded.

They have this nifty box with all the jurors names, and the clerk determines the alternates by drawing names.

Is it different in Minnesota?

[Ocelot II]

38. Alternates are the last jurors seated after the others are drawn,

so presumably you'd know you're an alternate because you'd be one of the last seated.

Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.02, Subd. 9. Alternate Jurors. The court may impanel alternate jurors. An alternate juror who does not replace a principal juror must be discharged when the jury retires to consider its verdict. If a juror becomes unable to serve, an alternate juror must replace that juror. Alternate jurors replace jurors in the order the alternates were drawn. No additional peremptory challenges are allowed for alternate jurors. If a juror becomes unable or disqualified to perform a juror's duties after the jury has retired to consider its verdict, a mistrial must be declared unless the parties agree under Rule 26.01, subd. 1(4) that the jury consist of a lesser number than that selected for the trial.

[Nevilledog]

39. Totally different than AZ.

And here those chosen as alternates are on the hook until the verdict. They have to be on standby, and if they're seated after deliberation has started, the jury has to start deliberations over.

[secondwind]

36. I PREDICT A STRONG CONVICTION...

And that is that...........

[Nevilledog]

37. I like your prediction way more than mine.

[Ocelot II]

40. Me, too, but I'm not sure for what.

So far the facts seem to best fit third-degree murder but we'll see.

609.195 MURDER IN THE THIRD DEGREE.
(a) Whoever, without intent to effect the death of any person, causes the death of another by perpetrating an act eminently dangerous to others and evincing a depraved mind, without regard for human life, is guilty of murder in the third degree and may be sentenced to imprisonment for not more than 25 years.

[waterwatcher123]

45. Having worked in Mpls, I think the jurors will vote to convict.

[Ocelot II]

46. Having lived in Minneapolis for many years, I agree.

[brooklynite]

47. Based on what evidence?