General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDump New Hampshire.
Biden came 5th in the NH primaries. NH is so unrepresentative, the 4th whitest state, it is time to begin the process that moves them to later in the contest ; If they still insist on being the first primary, give them nothing - 2008 Florida/Michigan style.
Democrats should end Iowa and New Hampshires political monopoly.
THE 2020 election may seem like a recent memory for some, it is not even over but Politico reports that Democratic Party leaders are hotly debating how to run the 2024 presidential nominating contest, and in particular whether Iowa and New Hampshire should keep their vaunted first-in-the-nation status. They should not. But the party must be careful not to do more harm than good when shifting the primary calendar. And merely reshuffling the order would be an insufficient response to the many dysfunctions the presidential nominating process has proved to have.
Iowas 50-year-old privilege to hold the first presidential nominating caucuses, and New Hampshires 100-year-old license to conduct the first primary, have become political rituals so entrenched that these states treat them as inviolable rights. Iowa and New Hampshire each have laws requiring state parties to hold nominating contests before others do. If other states try to leapfrog them, they just move their events even further forward. These states defend their advantage by arguing that their relatively small size allows voters to get up close and personal with candidates, and that their voters have developed over the decades a sense of responsibility to thoroughly vet the options. The most successful candidates are not necessarily the ones who have the most money for bombing the airwaves with ads, but those who can explain themselves and their policies at town hall meetings.
But Iowa and New Hampshire are unrepresentative of Democratic voters writ large and of the nation as a whole, and they are not the only states in which retail politics is possible. Both are extremely White. Both, but particularly New Hampshire, have proved susceptible to the leftward pull of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) among White progressives, leaving it to more diverse states such as South Carolina to pull the party back toward where its mainstream voters are. Their perpetual first-in-the-nation status has propped up support for federal subsidies for corn ethanol and home heating oil, as aspiring presidents must promise such payoffs to their voters every four to eight years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-should-end-iowa-and-new-hampshires-political-monopoly/2021/04/02/081e653c-9263-11eb-a74e-1f4cf89fd948_story.html
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)speak easy
(9,302 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Any state that goes out of order loses delegates. Also have penalties for candidates who go to maverick states.
Set up a fair mechanism to rotate states by size and region.
Why should any state get a permanent position at the front, especially when they have poor performance?
BornADemocrat
(8,168 posts)I don't see the correlation, though I agree that NH and IA don't represent Democratic voters.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)BornADemocrat
(8,168 posts)speak easy
(9,302 posts)cf. Buttigieg and Bernie
BornADemocrat
(8,168 posts)It seems a single congressman of color saved his campaign, but if he had not endorsed Biden, perhaps the result would have been different. Things aren't as cut-and-dried as you are implying.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)How well did Buttigieg do in the south - for example.
cinematicdiversions
(1,969 posts)speak easy
(9,302 posts)There was, for example, the shooting of Eric Logan. That did not put off the good voters of NH - but was a disaster in SC.
But if you do not think that Joe Biden's base in 2020 was people of color, you are living in a pretty exclusive reality.
cinematicdiversions
(1,969 posts)But Buttigieg fell off a cliff. Polling certainly shows his youth and sexual orientation were factors in this once we got to older and more diverse voting blocks.
rickyhall
(4,889 posts)speak easy
(9,302 posts)Having all the primaries on one day advantages big money campaigns like Bloomberg.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I favor doing primaries as packets of states, with the packers alternating first every four years. Break up the states and US territories, make three packets of states, with each packet primary being two months apart, with the first packet primary being in February, followed by Packet 2 primaries two months later, then Packet 3 primaries two months after the second packet. The change would force candidates to visit a lot more states that they now do.
BradAllison
(1,879 posts)Care to tell us who they voted for in the general election?
Meanwhile NH came thru on November 3rd
speak easy
(9,302 posts)That is no excuse for front loading the primaries with two lily white states.
cf Georgia
Biden 85%
Sanders 9%
BradAllison
(1,879 posts)Leningrad Lindsay easily swept back into office too. Wow.
The Democratic party should not be rewarding a state that can't elect a Democrat to state wide office.
So what else? California? Or is that "too white" as well?
speak easy
(9,302 posts)NC is very winnable.
An early state in New England - I have a soft spot for CT - which closely matches national demographics. But the point is primary contests should be fairly rotated.
BradAllison
(1,879 posts)It has been unapologetically blue for awhile.
NC voted for Trump and fucking Thom Tillis. Punished.
Celerity
(43,499 posts)for pretty much any type of measurement, as the race effectively ended April 8th, when Sanders dropped out, and Georgia did not vote until June 9th, a full 2 months later, long after the race was decided.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)is the same reason for holding the convention in a contestable state - to get an edge in the GE.
Celerity
(43,499 posts)My choices (no particular order) for the first primaries would be
VA
NV
WI
AZ
NC
MA
then GA, NH, PA, WA, FL, MI in the next tranche
speak easy
(9,302 posts)of holding the traditional first four contests, all as primaries, and all on the same day? The sheer size of SC would compensate for IA / NH white bias.
After SC, the delegate count was
Sanders 57
Biden 54
Buttigieg 24
Klobuchar 7
Warren 5
I could live with that. The SC numbers would still have given Biden momentum going forward - as would Pete's surprise showing in IA /NH. to some degree. The writing was on the wall, the mainstream (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) was ascendent. Nothing could have saved my candidate, Elizabeth Warren - but she did a sterling job, taking out Bloomberg.
Just a thought.
Celerity
(43,499 posts)VA, NV, AZ, WI
And I want IA way back of the list.
NH is a good barometer for the white suburban vote in swing states, far better than IA. Sounds strange coming from a hardcore Buttigieg girl like me, but it is what it is.
I said a bit as I am not at all sold on SC overall (2020 aside). It is way too conservative overall to get frontline (as in first 2) status. VA and NC have large AA pops too. WI also with Milwaukee and Madison to a point, and Milwaukee black voters are the most jaded in the nation in terms of turnout and outlook. 2016 was a shitshow, as were the AA votes in Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Philadelphia. If those cities had turned out remotely like 2012 (let alone 2008 which was never going to happen) Clinton would have won. I have done multiple long explanatory posts on the subject, just not recently. 2016 was a turnout election in terms of that factor's importance. Sanders primary voters were vastly more loyal in terms of percentage who did not defect rhan Clinton primary voters were in 2008. Around 25% of Clinton primary voters defected straight to McCain, and another 5% stayed home. 30% haemorrhage. Sanders primary voters were half that or so in terms of percentage (and a smaller group in sheer size as well). Obama made it up with insane turnout, especially amongst blacks and other PoC. By 2016, amongst those cohorts, especially blacks, and especially in major swing state huge cities, disillusionment had kicked in. Thank fuck Trump cured that.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)I was born in another such moment, in the early 1980s, when a half-century of New Deal liberalism gave way to forty years of Reagan supply-side conservatism that created the terms for how Democrats as well as Republicans made policy. And that era, too, is now over.
If America today feels like a confusing place to be, its because were on one of those blank pages in between chapters.
Change is coming, ready or not.
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/15/full-transcript-pete-buttigiegs-2020-presidential-campaign-announcement/3472030002/
Celerity
(43,499 posts)we have, especially when he is in the lion's den of the RW and they get in his face. He is an archetypal big picture thinker. That said, Biden was the right man at the right time. My huge regret (and I think that deep down his as well, given it yielded the monster Trump) was that he did not run in 2016. I would bet a shedload of dosh that he would have won. The fates intervened with the tragic death of Beau.
JI7
(89,264 posts)and make them all primaries, no caucuses.
BornADemocrat
(8,168 posts)NH has it in it's constitution to be 1st, so it can't be "dumped".
JI7
(89,264 posts)as happened with I think it was Michigan which Hillary won during 2008 primary but didn't count.
BornADemocrat
(8,168 posts)Though I didn't realize that "first" means not shared with anybody else when I posted. NH will likely have to concede to be 1st by time zone or something similar.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)and as you know I am not a NH fan.
The point is a system that ends up putting the most electable candidate 4th (IA) and 5th (NH) has to change. Getting the NV and SC results at the same time would have done a lot to change the narrative.
former9thward
(32,080 posts)The DNC changed their rules and said they would have half the delegates.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)and penalties for candidates who campaign in out of order states.
If NH wishes to join the 2008 Florida / Michigan club, that's up to them. 'You go early, you get nothing'
former9thward
(32,080 posts)Not "nothing"
speak easy
(9,302 posts)Democrats Approve Deal on Michigan and Florida
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/us/politics/01rules.html
Florida, a battleground state, was too important to alienate. NH, not so much.
Buckeyeblue
(5,502 posts)Or if not regional, multi-state with key swing states going first. I would think that PA, MI, WI and MN should be first. Maybe break it up so it's PA/MI one week and WI/MN two weeks later. Doesn't matter to me who goes first.
speak easy
(9,302 posts)the lopsided influence of IA / NH would be offset by the greater size of NV and SC.
After SC, the delegate count was
Sanders 57
Biden 54
Buttigieg 24
Klobuchar 7
Warren 5
I could live with that. What I can't live with is electable candidates being knocked out in lily-white state before POC get a say.