Nate Silver: Obama breaks Romney's winning streak

[RandySF]

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama finally broke Romney's 8-day winning streak in our forecast. 62.9% to win EC (vs 61.1% Fri) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/



https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[Democratopia]

1. The turnaround begins

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Good to hear. Let's all take a nice deep breath now.

[morningfog]

23. Romney got his week of free press and couldn't actually change the race. Back to

reality. Romney will not have another such week ever again.

[tblue]

32. Rmoney is, after all, the cery same piece of scum

he was before the debate. Did the 47% insult just evaporate? Did Bain all of a sudden become a benevolent enterprise?

[Raster]

3. And I predict the positive Obama streak to continue. Next week we should solidly see...

...the effects of Joe Biden's come-to-Jesus conversation with Lyin' Ryan.

GObama!

[Iliyah]

37. Well with AZ this morning and a couple days ago NC

WHOA, LOL

But watch for a ton of RW polls. Remember when the GOPpers start to bitch about an issue it is because they are doing it themselves, ie, polls, voter fraud, Libya.

Vote, Vote, Vote, and get your family and friends to vote!

[Raster]

56. I spoke with my family in AZ earlier today... a BLUE AZ would be a sight to behold!

[unblock]

4. it would be interesting, with all the hand-wringing, if "only" 61.1% is obama's low mark.

so much fuss over rmoney never even breaking 40%.

[treestar]

5. Back out from under the bus!

We need to keep that vehicle handy and have someone to move it, too!

[Cha]

16. We need to hide that damn bus

from Dems who Freak Out!

Dean said The Big Bird Debate was a tie..there was no need for Dems to bring down poll numbers.. Lookin' at you Tweety, Rachel, and Big Ed.

[tblue]

35. I wish Gov. Dean was DNC Chair again.

He'd have this thing all sorted out.

[treestar]

52. Dean is on the bus now!

Tweety, Rachel and Ed remain under it for now.

Rev. Al is still on the bus.

The bus needs a trap door for easy transition to being on it or being under it!

[Cha]

59. That's it! not too many peeps stay static

Hopefully we'll be helping Rach, Ed, and Tweety back on the bus SOON!

[George II]

69. Never was beneath the bus - it never went to Obama 49.9%

[Cali_Democrat]

6. The Biden Bump

[morningfog]

25. No, the end of the Romney bump.

[Cali_Democrat]

33. No. It's The Biden. You don't mess with The Biden.

[treestar]

67. The Biden has been released!

Time for Mittens and Lyan to run back to the rock they hide under!

[RichGirl]

49. It's too soon for Biden to effect the polls....

I hope that like the Dem convention, it won't be a Biden bump but a Obama/Biden soaring.

[teabaggersarestupid]

7. Anyone know

the reason for the bump? Nothing on RCP has changed. Nate's article mentions Republicans having trouble in Senate but nothing about why odds went slightly up for Obama.

If we can keep the odds between 60-65 prior to next debate, I'll be feeling a bit better. And Obama needs to destroy Romney.

[RandySF]

14. Two things, maybe.

First, RCP is garbage. Secondly, Nate may be taking the jump in consumer confidence into account.

[CTyankee]

17. Oh, I think people are getting more serious and focused.

Also, the media hype over Obama's first debate was overdone and then we liberals allowed ourselves to be driven nuts.

I think this just shows us not to freak out over one bad debate night.

[mzmolly]

20. Perhaps the recent AZ poll is part of his rationale?

Today Nate stated -

"G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney's Rise, Polls Show" http://nyti.ms/Rlr5Hs

"There's some evidence that polls which don't conduct Spanish-language interviews lowball Dem vote among Hispanics."

"Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews."

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[regnaD kciN]

64. 538 typically updates its forecast in the afternoon or early evening...

...then Nate puts up an explanation later that night.

[Kalidurga]

8. Good news. But, I had no doubts.

What did get me though is that anyone could think that lying and being an asshat is an asset. Apparently a small percent do think that this is a winning strategy. Seriously, I don't think Romney said anything that was true in the debates and he should have been booed offstage. Yeah the rules said no clapping or whatever, but why did we have to be subjected to 27 lies in 32 minutes or whatever, it was just too much. I hope Romney is deeply humiliated by his inevitable loss.

[mnhtnbb]

12. I don't care if he's humiliated: I just hope he goes away forever.

[calimary]

26. Amen. Now and Forever More Amen!

I just want him to go away. As her ladyship ayn of dressage would say - "Stop It!" And he should take her smug arrogant entitled ass with him.

[itssimplestupid]

44. Ditto

[calimary]

70. Welcome to DU, itssimplestupid!

Glad you're here! We need you - and Obama and the Dems need you.

We don't have this thing won yet.





Now get to work.

[barnabas63]

9. woot!

[OldDem2012]

10. Here we go! nt.

[elleng]

11. HOPE this helps DUers settle down

(and me, too.) Trying to not pay attention to polls, but nothing much happening (since Nationals lost, ) and promoting Wayne Powell to replace eric cantor in Virginia's 7th Congressional District.

PLEASE

contribute to the campaign directly, we have had a special link set up just for DU. 100% of your contribution goes to Powell’s campaign and it using this link gives DU the credit. If you send a check via snail mail, just add DU to the memo.

http://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=nnH5UqlGXVdFqwQYSNfMTv5XA6vMNUWV

Thanks

[BeyondGeography]

13. Biden broke the streak

Mr. Vice President really came through.

[jimlup]

15. Fucking finally!

God - each day I've checked 538 and been discouraged a little more. Today I was aghast as I saw that both Virginia and Colorado had slipped to red. I really don't think we should loss Virginia. Time to storm back with every fucking thing we have because a Romney Presidency would be such a national disaster that I'm not sure that the nation would survive it.

[CoffeeCat]

55. About Virginia...

I was flipping channels last night and ended up on Fox News. They were discussing recent polls. A Dem pollster pointed out that the latest VA poll that has RR up a couple of points--was conducted by a Republican pollster.

So...I don't think we need to be too concerned about VA yet. The poll may be bunk.

[tallahasseedem]

18. And he has The Biden to thank!

He needs to knock it out of the ballpark on Tuesday now!

GOTV!!!

[OhZone]

19. Sorry to sound like a conspiracy theorist...

but sometimes I really think we're being played.

Well, maybe just call be a skeptic in honor of international skeptics day...

if there is such a thing!

lulz

[AverageJoe90]

34. I don't think he's playing us. nt

[Brother Buzz]

21. Is this the same Nate Silver that was on everyone's shit list yesterday?

[Logical]

24. LOL, yes it is! This place is silly at times. We hate Nate, we love Nate!!

[Butterbean]

28. Yep. Isn't that interesting.

[regnaD kciN]

36. He's still on my shit list...

...for his credulity toward obvious Republican-sourced polls, but good news is good news, no matter what the source.

[backscatter712]

22. Looks like the really bad polling days are finally falling off the rolling averages.

And Biden's curbstomping of rAyn should be starting to show results by now.

[AlinPA]

27. I can't find the 61.1% number in previous 538 reports.

[tweeternik]

29. And NOW we need Obama

to "open up" on the lying bastard Tuesday night!! no more passivity!!

[Utah_liberal]

30. I believe Romney has peaked as high as he ever will but...

I tend to be very cautious and I never get overconfident. I won't be able to relax until the fat fat lady sings,

[MFM008]

57. you mean until Karl Rove sings...wait same thing.

[regnaD kciN]

31. I guess there weren't enough...

...Republican-leaning WeAskAmARGravismussen polls to which Nate could give 100% credence today!

[AverageJoe90]

38. True.

I knew Obama was going to suffer a hit, but not quite by that much. I think Nate's getting around to adjusting things, though.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

39. While sleepless last night I could only think about polling numbers.

I actually got up at 5:30 am (SoCal time), came to DU, and saw a ray of hope. Was able finally to sleep.

[dinger130]

40. All we need now is for Obama

to put his kick ass shoes on, step into the ring and knock this piece of crap out.

[Orlandodem]

41. YESSSsSSSSSSD!!!!!!"""

[Kablooie]

42. Whew! Those blue and red lines were getting pretty close to crossing.

Kind of nerve wracking.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

43. CNBC is reporting incredibly positive forecasts

for the next 24 months. I'm not invested in the market
but why would investors, people depending on their 401k's
want to shake things up with a new administration? It makes
no sense.

[BootinUp]

45. Good.

I expect a small anti-Romney bounce over the next few days. Fingers crossed.

[tableturner]

46. If you look at the Rand poll, more good news......

The Rand poll surveys the same people over and over again (1/7 of them each day of the week), and Obama is up one day for the first time in a while, while Romney has been down now for two days:

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

[krawhitham]

47. Thank You JOE

[NutmegYankee]

48. Finally! The reversal has begun.

[CoffeeCat]

50. I'm so excited and I just can't hide it!

Seriously...this is the beginning of the end for Romney. Slow and steady--will be the gradual uptick for Obama/Biden!

Just wait until the debates! Obama will kick Mr One Percent back to his car elevator!

[kellytore]

51. The good news is...

The Dems are still holding on to nice leads in the senate races. This tells me that the Romney bounce was only affecting the presidential race, and as soon as the next debate is over, that bounce will be erased. I have all the confidence in the world that we won't see a repeat of the last one.

[Grammy23]

53. Best News I've Had ALL DAY!

I was starting to slide back into the doldrums. I read comments in our local paper a little while ago about the Biden/Ryan debate and since I live in the REDDEST of the RED part of Northwest Florida, they were crying like a bunch of wimps about how "rude" Biden was. How he was a disgrace to the office of Vice President. It was truly enough to make you gag.

When their man was rude to the President, acting like a petulant child about who goes first and who gets to go next, no one said a crying word. They were happy with their guy. When he lied repeatedly and reinvented himself so that even his own mother wouldn't recognize him, they cheered for him. But Biden gives Ryan the come-uppance he so richly deserved, they cried foul. What a bunch of crap in your pants babies.

Reading this post has restored my equilibrium. But I sure am getting tired of this roller coaster ride. I just have to keep telling myself it's only for another 3 weeks and a few days! And then we can all relax and celebrate President Obama's re-election. Lots of hard work and maybe even more ups and downs to go. Hopefully it will mainly be ups and more ups!

Obama/Biden 2012!!

[DCBob]

54. Of course we knew this was going to happen.

but its nice to finally see it. cheers!

[DCBob]

60. ..

sorry I changed my orignal post. I didnt feel it was appropriate... but... maybe another time.

[DarthDem]

65. All Good!

I'll be here. The trolls need to be identified so that they don't bring anyone down, their real goal.

[DMacTX]

61. why does Nate still include Gravis polling, and weight it as maximum reliabilty?

I'm all in favor of including unflattering polls, that's the purpose of this excercise,.....but Gravis has been exposed already.

I dont't get it.

[gkhouston]

63. That's a good question. Giving a new pollster full weighting is odd, in and of itself. n/t

[DarthDem]

66. I suspect . . .

That Nate, now an MSM member, doesn't want to be accused of partisan poll cherrypicking. Also too, Daily Kos has a similar policy, which Kos has explained is best because it provides a worst-case scenario.

[gkhouston]

62. Rollercoaster going UP... n/t

[Samantha]

68. Could you take a look at this post I made this morning on someone's thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1529796

I am very interested in anyone's take on how this happened. So please take a look if you have the time.

Sam

PS The running theme is Nate's Silver's continual drop since September 29th and today for Obama. He even has Florida going for Romney now. Also Virginia. And take a look at Colorado.

Just two weeks ago, Nate gave Obama something like a 69.00% chance of carrying Florida (you will see if you check the thread).

Also, I am a huge Nate Silver fan -- just didn't want to give anyone the wrong idea.