Why does the Media Keep Predicting

[itcfish]

That the republicans will win the majority in Congress in the midterms? I know that has been true historically, but circumstances have changed and there are no comparisons today. Democrats need to control both the House and the Senate to undo the Trump damage.

https://www.rawstory.com/republican-house-majority/

[gab13by13]

1. Past history,

plus the fact that Republicans get to gerrymander more House seats. I worry about the House more than the Senate.

[lagomorph777]

2. Gerrymandering and voter suppression are kicked into overdrive now.

[uponit7771]

3. THIS !!!! ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾 I've been trying to warn EVERYONE I can that GQP is not going to let go of ...

... power when they get it back and at this point they need to be made the anti democracy party and demonized because of that.

We're not dealing with good actors in the republican leadership any longer, these people are getting to the horrible level of asshole

[rampartc]

6. they have almost enough states for a constitutional convention

and they want it bad. here is the koch version ....

https://conventionofstates.com/

[PortTack]

28. That is a pipe dream. Even if they get enough gov seats, the voting public will never go along

With what they would propose

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

10. You are correct

We're not dealing with good actors in the republican leadership any longer, these people are getting to the horrible level of asshole

But unfortunately some elected Democrats treat them as our “distinguished” colleagues from the other side....seems like they never learn the lessons of the past

[rampartc]

4. republicans control most states and are fine tuning their gerrymanders

based on the trump influenced census. add their new voting laws and we are looking at a repub speaker (probably gym jordan) and a new repub majority leader (cruz?) mcconnel is considered too moderate for the trumpists.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

8. And what I hate is

That our two largest States (California and NY) there are independent redistricting commissions while in their two biggest states (Texas and Florida) there aren’t......I do believe that all states should have independent commissions that draw congressional districts, but we can’t play the noble good guys when they aren’t doing it......California and NY Democrats should gerrymander the hell out of those states to the point that McCarthy, Nunez, Stefanik, etc are defeated....But no, we always play too damn nice and under different rules

[rampartc]

11. doing the right thing gets us nowhere.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

12. Agree

[former9thward]

24. CA is already pretty gerrymandered.

If you go by the 2020 election results Republicans have 35% of the vote in CA. They have 20% of the Congressional seats in CA. That is the definition of gerrymandering -- whether its done by a commission or the legislature. If you think someone could draw a map where Democrats took all 53 seats then please send that person to CA. It is mathematically and geographically impossible.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

27. No need for all 53; I would settle for

McCarthy’s and Nunes’s districts getting drawn in such a way that they would have to battle each other. Right now the 22nd (Nunes) is R+6 and the 23rd (McCarthy) is R+12.....make the 22nd even or D+, while making the 23rd R+25.

[Blues Heron]

5. Tamara Keith was pushing this the other day on NPR

It seems trollish in light of recent history. "Dems are in big trouble" rinse, repeat. Why I never listen to NPR anymore.

[Johonny]

7. Because the seats that changed hands due to the census

GOP controls the states that gain seats and will make the new seats GOP seats. We need redistricting laws that fix this problem, but only Democratically run states have passed these laws. Expect a close house if not a house loss even though the Democrats will win more votes overall in the mid-terms. We have a broken Congressional system. The senate is a mess and the house is not far behind these days.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

9. Frustrating

but only Democratically run states have passed these laws.

We are always playing a different game and rules; I hate it.

[Progressive Jones]

13. I love my Southern friends, and I love certain things about Southern culture but,

from a political standpoint, the South has been nothing but a major problem in this nation
since the crushing of the Confederacy., first with the Dixiecrat trash, them the GOP.

The Southern right is like an incurable STD, with some crabs thrown in.

[Brainstormy]

21. be sure to tell the two new senators from Georgia

what a problem you think the South is.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

23. I would actually say they are showing the Democrats how to do it

Instead of appeasing and chasing after voters who aren’t going to vote for them, they have embraced the Democratic agenda (pre and post election)....they knew who their voters were and who gave them a chance to win....too many times over the last decade Democrats in the south have tried to run an election by being Republican-lite and it has not worked

[PortTack]

29. Agree! 7-8 months ago we'd have all laughed if someone predicted that GA would go for Biden

Let alone giving us 2 dem senators

The DNC is flush with cash, record donations of 18.4 mil. They are targeting 22 vulnerable qgop congress critters for the midterms.

Let’s just keep our heads down, shoulder to the wheel and move forward!

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

22. I would go back further than that

Even during the first constitutional convention the South has had too much power and have been appeased....and your assessment about them being the Southern Right is accurate, no matter what the era or whatever they called themselves at the time (Jacksonian Democrat-Republicans, Democrats, Dixiecrats, now Republicans) they have been white right-wing racist conservatives.

[Hortensis]

34. Well, I'm cynical enough to believe that if all the south's black people

moved to northern states, at least the conservative half of northern whites would turn into anxious, race-focused "southerners." I have to agree that wherever hard-core conservatives, with their antipathy to differences of all kinds, concentrate they are effectively like an chronic social disease. But a lot lie dormant, untriggered by anxiety.

Far more people than say so, or even realize themselves, live in northern and some western mountain states because it's almost entirely white there, and I don't mean in winter. And more of those are going there all the time.

With the current self-segregation of people toward and away from more diverse, liberal environments, one guess which kinds are heading to strongly white regions to be with "people who share our values." A very different group from those making up the massive waves who've been sweeping into the white-and-black south and slowly moving the south the other direction.

Notably those drawn to white areas are not all actually hostile to diversity, maybe just prefer less of it... Some are more like the 1960s-80 waves Bernie Sanders was part of who went to farm in VT and ME, preferring the poor, rocky soil and very short growing seasons to the good soil and long growing seasons of
VA and MD. Or something like that.

[FakeNoose]

14. They're trying to Get Out The Vote

So come on Democrats, let's GOTV!

It's discouraging how many people lose interest in politics once the presidential race is over. The Repukes have this figured out and we don't! We can't sit back for 4 years and let them take over again, and there are too many ways for them to steal the next election. Haven't we learned that by now?

[modrepub]

15. And Why I Continue To Say

Dems should be building ways to prevent their tax dollars from being highjacked by Republicans. Democratic districts account for a larger portion of the GDP (thus tax revenue) than Republican districts. That's one of the reasons Republicans take every step to maintain control of the state legislatures and Congress. Those who control the legislative branch control where the tax revenue goes.

Passing something along the lines of no state or Congressional district shall receive less than 95% of their tax contributions in federal programs should be passed. Or as an alternative, make more federal funding predicated on a larger match at the state or local level. Republican areas aversion to tax increases will leave them starving for federal monies while those communities that want more public projects will be able to snap up more federal resources if they are willing to buy in.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. There's 3 factors at play

1. Cons gerrymandering and the census.
2. Cons voter suppression.
3. This one is in the Dems favor, Trump isn't on the ticket, this could be a huge factor in Con voter turnout.

No one knows how it shakes out.

[PortTack]

30. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[Cracklin Charlie]

17. It's what they're paid to do.

Push the narrative.

[Hoyt]

18. Confused, title of article is: "How trump could ruin GOP's seemingly easy path to taking back House"

Doesn't sound like Media is predicting GOPers will win the majority of House.

We win when we vote and that will be true in 2022.

[gab13by13]

26. Not true in Pa.

except for the state wide races. More people vote Democratic in Pa. and we keep losing seats. A Democrat will never win the district that I vote in. I just voted by mail in Pa. the Republican controlled legislature has 2 ballot initiatives that takes power away from our Democratic governor. Pa. Republicans are trying to give themselves more power, hopefully the 2 initiatives fail.

Also, I have to request a mail in ballot every year, which is no problem, but this year I had to provide my driver's license number.

If the election fairness bill isn't passed I'm afraid we are in for minority rule.

[Hoyt]

32. Honestly, I don't think Democrats are as stupid or helpless as people on both sides seem to think.

I'm in a state with a controversial new election law, but none of it is insurmountable. There are some concerning outcomes that COULD -- but won't necessarily -- happen.

The Democratic Mayor in the largest city -- a major Democratic area -- has pretty much stopped bashing the new legislation and has smartly moved to educating people what they have to do to vote.

[Progressive dog]

19. Elected Republicans are working to suppress enough votes

to win elections with a smaller minority. They do not support democracy and are trying to perpetuate their power.

[bullwinkle428]

20. Two factors. There is a history, unfortunately, of Democratic party voters

not being as reliable as the Repuke base, when it comes to mid-terms. And the voter suppression efforts have to be considered as well.

I don't ever want to see a post/meme here along the lines of, "CHILL THE FUCK OUT, EVERYONE - JOE'S GOT THIS ALL UNDER CONTROL!"

[jimfields33]

25. They only need 6 seats.

I sure that has a lot to do with why.

[PortTack]

33. Looking at that from a different perspective

we had a massive blue wave in the ‘18 midterms a lot of those were first time Dems that won in very red districts, so it should have been expected that a lot of those seats would fall back to the qgop as they did in ‘20.

The qgop has picked off the easy ones, now they really have very little room to break out as we do not have a lot of vulnerable house members left.

Also the DNC flush with cash- 18.4 mil last quarter has targeted 22 vulnerable qgop congress critters for the midterms. It may not be as easy as it seems for them.

[jimfields33]

36. What you say sounds awsome. You are right. Great insight.

[Steelrolled]

31. What circumstances have changed?

[crickets]

35. Pushing the comfortable, status quo narrative. Some are bucking the trend:

Polls suggest House Democrats will buck midterm curse and add to their ranks

https://democraticunderground.com/100215352142
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/polls-suggest-house-democrats-will-buck-midterm-curse-and-add-to-their-ranks/ar-BB1fOLl0