With only about 36% of people fully vaccinated, nationwide,

[MineralMan]

I predict another surge in cases and deaths within the next 60 days. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. Masks on, as far as I'm concerned.

Minnesota has pretty good vaccination coverage, one of the best in the nation, except that people of color have a much lower vaccination rate than white folks. Much lower.

I think unmasking is premature. However, I'm not an epidemiologist, nor a doctor, so what do I know?

[madaboutharry]

1. Actually, I think you know a lot MineralMan.

Dr. Fauci repeatedly has said that the vaccinated are safe.

I also think that all those mask/vaccine deniers are going to get each other sick.

And I am still worried about the variants, though the scientists say the vaccine is holding up agains them.

[MineralMan]

3. Yes. If you're vaccinated, there's not a lot to worry about.

My wife and I are fully vaccinated. I'm not concerned about us, or others who also are. However, I am very concerned about the rest of the population, the under-vaccinated and the vaccine refusers. There is a great cost of having so many people at risk of this virus. I think we're ignoring that, officially, and that we should not be doing so.

[MiniMe]

2. I think the people who won't wear masks are the ones who have been bitching and moaning

about masks since the beginning. I will continue to wear one, I don't trust the assholes

[MineralMan]

5. Yes. We're used to the masks. I've been wearing one in public places

for over a year, now. I see no reason to stop doing that at this time, so I will continue to do so. More to keep setting an example of precautions against the pandemic than for any other reason. My choice.

[dawg day]

31. Yes, mask doesn't bother me now.

I work at home, so it's only necessary in public. But I have a friend who is undergoing treatment now and can't get he shots until she's done, so I want to protect her. I know she's at little risk from me, but I feel like I'm showing solidarity for her... not to mention all the children.

[JI7]

4. The no masks thing is only for those who are vaccinated

They are still saying people who haven't been vaccinated need to wear a mask.

[MineralMan]

7. But will they? I am not convinced that they will.

Vaccinations are slowing down. Either people are refusing or are having problem accessing vaccinations. Nationwide, with only about 36% fully vaccinated, we are not doing all that well. That is especially true in red states and rural areas.

It is a cause for concern, I believe.

[Dorian Gray]

58. I think we're going to start seeing people shame non-vaccinated people publicly.

My sister in law won't get vaccinated. If she takes her mask off in public, I'm hoping some of her friends will start calling her out. ("HEY! You're not vexed. You should keep that on!&quot

We're going to see fist fights!

[MineralMan]

59. In public, you won't know who is vaccinated and who is not.

Whether they are masked or not, you will not know their vaccination status.

[Dorian Gray]

60. I will know which family and friends of mine who aren't

So I won't be hanging out with them in places where we would be unmasked. And I'll tell them why.

(That's the shaming I'm talking about.)

This summer if I were to go to my parent's house and my SIL came over, I'd insist she wear her mask.

I'm not particularly concerned about myself as I'm vaccinated. Byt I have a ten year old kid who isn't. So they'll need to wear masks in each other's company.

[Dorian Gray]

61. If I go to a store

most likely I'll be masked anyhow. I'm in NYC. People will continue to mask on subways etc. here. So I don't really care if someone I'm not spending face to face time has been vaccinated or not. If I am passing by them and I'm both vaccinated and masked, I'm not concerned about them passing on the virus to me.

To my child, yes. That's why she'll continue to wear a mask in public.

[Grasswire2]

69. agree

The hesitant will lie about their status by not wearing a mask.

And parents will worry more about their unvaccinated children.

[MiniMe]

10. Yes, but the anti-maskers will try to take full advantage of it

We've been hearing things all along that they don't have to wear masks, because breathing oxygen is a right. I guess they think breathing germs is a right too.

[uponit7771]

54. That's not how maskholes are going to react to 'no maks for vaccinated', we know that

[magicarpet]

6. 36%,... I thought it would be closer to 60% by now.

With the no mask declarations, people wanting this over, desire to make up for lost freedumbs during Covid, this summer will be an explosion of get togethers and party hearty crowd...... then late summer and come next fall there will be another explosion of Covid cases and deaths.

[MineralMan]

9. That's the number I saw on the CBS Morning News.

I find it shocking, to tell you the truth.

I'm not concerned for myself. I got vaccinated at the earliest possible opportunity, as did my wife.

[genxlib]

34. I think it depends on which statistic you are hearing

The number MM is quoting is pretty much up to date when considering all Americans.

But a separate statistic only considering percentage of adults is often quoted. That metric is north of 50% now.

But separating those numbers makes less sense now because minors are eligible. Ultimately, it is the percentage of the total population that matters when it comes to herd immunity.

[IsItJustMe]

73. The 36 % number is a bit misleading considering all the factors.

People under 12 can't be vaccinated right now. That is approximately 18 % of the US population. From what I
have read Pfizer is going to seek FDA approval for that age group in September.

Also, Approximately 51 % of the US population has had at least one shot.

Considering that they have just began vaccinations for people 12 to 18 for all approved FDA Covid Vaccines, I
would suspect that within the next couple of months, a significant bump will occur with overall vaccinations.

And if previous infections provide some degree of safety from future infections, then it estimated that one third
(around 115,000,000) have already had the virus.

All things considered, I think it's looking pretty good. Half full or half empty, but it is moving in the right direction.

[Silent3]

8. If it happens, it won't be from actually following the new guidelines

It will be from unvaccinated people feeling free to unmask along with the vaccinated people. But excess illness and death will remain nearly completely within the unvaccinated population.

There is always, of course, the possibility of a break-through mutations that defeat current vaccinations. But again, that's most likely to be caused by the unvaccinated, not by the vaccinated taking advantage of mask removal before such a thing happens.

[MineralMan]

12. Frankly, that doesn't matter, really.

A new surge in infections has a powerful impact on all of us, even if we're not at risk for the virus. That is my concern.

[SoCalDavidS]

18. That's Part Of Living In America

You have to be willing to accept that a certain segment of the population couldn't give 2 shits whether you live or die. Where someone else's lack of caring could result in your death or the death of someone you love.

Expecting those who have been fucking with this virus for the last 14 months, to suddenly show some compassion, is foolhardy.

[dawg day]

33. Yeah, the people who assert their absolute right

To carry loaded guns into a McDonald's where your kids are playing... they don't care about anyone but their own fragile belligerent self. They don't care about their own family (most likely to be their casualties), and they don't even care about their own health. They are like a suicide bomber cult, but they lack that much conviction. They just want to posture.

[SoonerPride]

11. Any surge in death will be among the unvaccinated

Natural selection is a thing.

[MineralMan]

13. True, but I'm not a big fan of people getting sick and dying,

even if I disagree with them politically or otherwise.

[SoonerPride]

15. You can lead a horse to water....

If people choose not to take advantage of vaccines, that's on them at this point.

[MineralMan]

16. Sorry, but what others do affects me, too.

I can't just ignore that.

[SoCalDavidS]

20. Accept The Fact That There's A Portion Of America That Doesn't Care If Their Actions Impact You nt

[MineralMan]

39. While that may well be a fact, I needn't accept it nor be pleased with it.

Instead, I'd rather change that opinion among those who hold it.

[Mickju]

47. I'm with you, Mineral Man.

[CrackityJones75]

51. Not willing to forgo my happiness for them.

Sorry but I am not willing to do more than my fair share because a bunch if brain dead shit heads don’t want to protect themselves and their brain dead relatives.

It is their responsibility. Me and my family have done all the necessary things for the past 14 months. I am done doing anything more to protect people that won’t protect themselves.

[uponit7771]

55. that'll still affect the vaxed at minimum hospitals

[SoonerPride]

64. Doubtful

As posted above neither texas nor florida have seen a surge in cases after dropping mask mandates.

At this point there is a statistically insignificant risk to fully vaccinated people.

The unvaccinated are still playing Russian roulette.

C'est la vie.

[Johonny]

70. Well, they also include a lot of DUers children

Remember not everyone is eligible so save the sarcasm. My kids potentially dying isn't fucking funny. Get it.

[SoonerPride]

76. Their risk is the same as today.

Get it?

[Yavin4]

14. Texas eliminated all masks mandates and social distancing back on March 2.

There have been no surges in cases, hospitalizations, or deaths since then. In fact, all major stats have seen the same stark declines as the national numbers.

Florida did the same, and there was talk about a huge surge after Spring Break. There weren't any surges there as well. Their numbers declined as well.

[Blue_Adept]

48. Exactly

And this is because the unmasked were already unmasked

Liberals and the masked remained masked, even if they were mocked by others.

And they also went and got vaccinated but because they don't trust the unmasked, they stuck to their protocols even as the state loosened everything up.

Abbott geared the mandate toward the unmasked and they were already doing what they were doing. The drop in cases is because of the vaccinated and maintaining protocols.

[RegularJam]

53. I don't think most people are actually paying attention to the data. At all.

The anti-vaccers or those claiming that hospitals are about to be overcrowded.

Our numbers in Florida actually kind of stink. But when compared to the dire predictions they look good. Sad how so much of this is about personal feelings and propaganda, over the reality of the situation.

[uponit7771]

56. Texas, ... I don't believe Abbot or DeathSentences numbers ONE BIT

[carpetbagger]

72. The overall theme holds.

I work for the federal government in Texas in healthcare. The numbers in my orbit haven't been this low since last May.

[EarlG]

17. 37% fully vaccinated but 47% with at least one dose nationwide

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Bear in mind that most adults were not able to get a vaccine prior to mid-April. I got mine as soon as I was allowed to in my state, on April 14. It was Moderna so I had to wait a month for the second shot. I got that on May 12, so even though I got vaccinated as soon as I possibly could, I won't be counted towards the fully vaccinated number until May 26.

Also bear in mind that children under 12 were not able to get a vaccine until May 13. They can only get Pfizer, so the earliest anyone in that population can be counted as fully vaccinated will be mid-June.

Hopefully we'll see the vaccination numbers continue to rise as the next few weeks go by.

BTW, that New York Times pages says that there were 16,616 new cases reported yesterday, which as far as I can tell is the lowest since March 25, 2020, right at the beginning of the pandemic. That's good news.

[MineralMan]

19. That is somewhat better, certainly.

I understand that. However, I am still concerned, particularly with the low vaccination rates among people of color. Most of that is due to poor outreach into that community, along with some fear of vaccination.

I just think the decision was made prematurely, and that unvaccinated people, particularly refusers, will take it as a blanket release from mask-wearing. That, I think, will be a big mistake.

[EarlG]

24. We'll soon find out

The fact is, until the vaccines became widely available, masking and distancing were the only options available to protect oneself and others. And they weren't even very good options. I know that I personally never felt secure spending just 30 minutes in the grocery store even while double masked.

The new guidance speaks to the reality that the vaccine is effective. People now have an additional choice to protect themselves and others from Covid, and it is significantly more effective than masking.

According to all the data, if you're fully vaccinated, you're highly unlikely to suffer from Covid or spread it to others. And at this point, getting the vaccine is a choice that (almost) anyone can make. If you won't (or can't) get the vaccine, AND you refuse to take other precautions (masking and distancing), then you're choosing to put yourself -- and others like you -- in danger. But you are, by and large, no longer a threat to people who are fully vaccinated.

We can't force people to get vaccinated, but people should understand that if they want to start living their lives again, getting vaccinated is the way to do it. Hopefully this will encourage more people to do it. At the same time, we should of course continue other public awareness campaigns to get as many people vaccinated as possible.

I'll also repeat what I've been saying in all these discussions: if people wish to continue to mask even after being vaccinated, that is a completely valid choice and nobody should be ridiculed for it. I personally plan to keep wearing my mask when I go out to the grocery store and other public spaces.

[MineralMan]

27. Yes. Time will tell.

I'm very disappointed in the hesitance of so many to get vaccinated. It's a stupid decision on the parts of those who could protect themselves so easily.

I'm a homebody, but I mask when I go inside public places. I don't attend crowded gatherings now, but I didn't before, either.

I wish people would get their vaccinations. That's what I wish. I don't think the incentive to do so will increase, however. In fact, I think it will decrease since the mask mandate has been lifted. That's unfortunate.

[EarlG]

32. I too wish people would get their vaccinations

Even if they don't though, I guess they're still doing their part to get us to herd immunity. The CDC recently estimated that as many as a third of all Americans were infected with Covid over the past year. Those people (the ones who survived) did get some measure of protection from the virus -- not as good as if they'd been vaccinated, but still, they are more resistant to Covid than they were before getting infected. So that creates more dead ends for the virus.

There's probably significant overlap between people who got Covid and people who subsequently got vaccinated, but the number of virus dead ends in the US is higher than just the number of people who've been vaccinated. When you combine the two, it could explain why we're seeing the numbers dive.

[DenaliDemocrat]

21. Not within 60 days

It is now confirmed an airborne virus. As such, the humidity and heat oh the summer as well as school vacations will slow the spread.

This fall, when it turns cold and dry, we will have a spike.

[MineralMan]

23. Hmm...looking back at last year around this time,

I have to disagree with you.

[DenaliDemocrat]

41. Disagree all you want

I literally work in public health/risk assessment and I am looking at the projections as I type this. No one is predicting a large spike in 60 days.

Worst model shows the curve going asymptotic around the end of the month then slowly ticking back up at the end of August coinciding with back to school.

[MineralMan]

42. I'm not sure why my opinions rile you up so much, frankly.

It's amusing, though.

[DenaliDemocrat]

43. Because you spout disinformation

And it’s not helpful. Your opinion is not educated, but you still toss it out there - even though it’s wrong. I am wondering if you just like pot stirring.

[beaglelover]

66. +1

[honest.abe]

74. +1

[Voltaire2]

77. Ain't nothing to wonder.

[Blue_Adept]

49. This. All this.

Everyone that I've seen that's involved in the assessments have said the same. With so much outdoor and so many vaccinated, it's not going to see the big surge.

I'm sticking to my protocols until I see where things stand two weeks after memorial day as that's my last "big test" as an observer to see what will happen in my state (MA where we're heavily vaccinated) and I'm expecting things to be largely normal after that non-event.

[Elessar Zappa]

22. We might see an increase

but I don’t think we’ll get to the point where hospitals are stretched unless a variant emerged that completely avoids the vaccine. That said, I wouldn’t have minded the mask mandate for another month or so.

[Polybius]

25. Nah, in two months it'll be July 17th

If last year is any indication, cases in Summer months drop considerably.

[genxlib]

37. Context matters

You have to consider what the conditions of the country were at the time. At least part of the reason that infections were lower was that things were fairly significantly locked down at the time. In fact, the minor surges that we had in that time frame were directly correlated to people opening up prematurely. More so, the surges that happened later in the fall could be traced first to school/college opening and ultimately to holiday travel. There is likely some correlation to weather but you can't extract it completely from our behavior during those times.

I think there is also an assumption that winter=indoors and summer=outdoors. While this is true for the north it is the inverse in the south. Everyone ends up inside in the summer.

[dalton99a]

26. Don't forget Covid survivors who have natural immunity - their number is underreported:

From a January 2021 study:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/study-us-covid-cases-deaths-far-higher-reported

In the cross-sectional study, researchers from study sponsors Pfizer and Merck analyzed data from random community seroprevalence surveys and five such regional and national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveys to estimate infection underreporting multipliers. Seroprevalence surveys reveal the proportion of a population that has antibodies against a certain disease, such as COVID-19.

After adjusting for underreporting using validated multipliers, the analysis revealed an estimated median 46,910,006 infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19; 28,122,752 symptomatic infections; 956,174 hospitalizations; and 304,915 deaths from April to mid-November.

According to those numbers, 14.3% of Americans had been infected with the novel coronavirus by Nov 15, 8.6% had symptomatic infections, with an infection-hospitalization ratio of 2.0% and a case-fatality ratio for people with symptoms of 1.1%.

In contrast, the CDC reported 10,846,373 COVID-19 cases and 244,810 deaths in that same time span, with 1,037,962 cases recorded in just the last 7 days of that period (on average, 148,280 new daily reported cases).

[MineralMan]

28. That is a valid point, if having had the disease affords one

good immunity.

[Voltaire2]

45. there is no 'if' to that.

prior infection provides 'good immunity'.

Please stop spreading the FUD.

[MineralMan]

46. Thanks for the advice.

[honest.abe]

79. I think there are many have been exposed and had no symptoms.

Those people would not even know they had it.

[BannonsLiver]

29. I predict you will be wrong.

I wish folks would stop rooting for bad outcomes because they don’t like the CDC ruling or they want to be seen as some kind of all knowing sage.

[MineralMan]

30. OK.

Last edited Mon May 17, 2021, 12:02 PM - Edit history (1)

I'd like to be wrong about this. However, I am not "rooting" for anything. I'm not sure what gave you that idea.

[uponit7771]

57. stating facts is not rooting for bad outcomes

[DenaliDemocrat]

78. There is no "fact" here, just an unscientific opinion

Facts:

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Persist for up to 13 Months and Reduce Risk of Reinfection https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.07.21256823v

Rapid and stable mobilization of fully functional spike-specific CD8+ T cells preceding a mature humoral response after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination

Durability of mRNA-1273-induced antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants

The fact is, there are only a few mutations that have been shown increased fitness (it’s no accident, the Receptor Binding Domain protein can only be modified so much, then it becomes inert) . Most are at the B.1.1.6 or B.1.1.7 location in some fashion. The vaccines have shown continued efficacy for these mutations. Yes, there is a six- fold decrease in antibody recruitment, but still more than enough to provide protection. In addition, your immune system is more than neutralizing antibodies. Prior infections are conferring some immunity for over a year. I addition, the reaction to the J&J and AZ shots are almost certainly an autoimmune response some people have on a rare occasion. It has NOTHING to do with the birth control pill.

These are the facts. These are also the things MM says are wrong and instead offers up his own highly misinformed opinion .

[Yonnie3]

35. Longer term thoughts

The virus will continue circulating under the present situation. More so under the new rules. The CDC is in a flatten the curve mode, not a save as many as they can mode.

We don't know the timeline for the length of protection from a vaccination. We do know it likely declines over time. We don't know what variants might appear and if the vaccines will remain effective.

While I am concerned that there may be an immediate surge, I am much more concerned about this fall and winter as the vaccine wears off and people have returned to normal.

[wiggs]

36. Reading epidemiologists' feeds, seems you might be right. Most believe it's premature, most

are worried about variants (known and unknown) more than headlines reflect.

Efficacy against wild/original virus seems great but not perfect. Against Indian and Brazilian variants there is less hard data I see but we hear vaccines are still 'effective'. Does that mean better than nothing? Does it mean 50% effective against severe illness? 75%? Anyone know about Indian and Brazilian long covid? Seems that younger people are sicker than with original covid...

It may be years before we understand this virus and the various effects/reactions in the body. Doubtful we know enough now to come up with guidelines/rules that fit every household, location, and individual. I think officials are doing the best they can to prevent the health care system from crashing...protection of individuals is different, and up to each of us.

I also expect a new surge based on variants, schools reopening, unmasking, traveling, etc...

[live love laugh]

38. Agree except it may be minimized due to outdoor activities and summer. nt

[CentralMass]

40. There will be a return to indoor activities, like dining indoors, movie theaters, concerts as well

[Voltaire2]

44. 45.6% at least one vac.

10% of the population has already had covid.

We will be at greater than 60% of the population either vaccinated or with natural immunity within a few weeks.

Relax. For now the pandemic is over if you are vaccinated or have already had the disease.

"I think unmasking is premature. However, I'm not an epidemiologist, nor a doctor, so what do I know?"
Well perhaps you might consider relying on the experts at the CDC who include all of the above in thier decision making.

[MineralMan]

62. That is why I qualified my statement by including "fully-vaccinated."

I write carefully. Not everyone reads carefully, unfortunately.

[Voltaire2]

63. sure you carefully minimized the extent of vaccination

hoping nobody would notice, otherwise your argument is very weak.

[MineralMan]

65. No, I did not do that. Since only those who are fully-vaccinated

are supposed to be able to unmask, that is what I am talking about. That is the standard.

Even the percentage that has had at least one vaccination is below 50%.

The real problem is that it will be impossible to tell whether a person, either wearing or not wearing a mask, has been vaccinated or not.

The vaccine and mask avoiders will take this to mean they can remove their masks, since nobody will know, one way or another. Nobody will know who is protected and who is not. Since people had accepted mask wearing indoors, we were all better protected.

So, essentially, if those who are fully-vaccinated remove their masks, that will essentially be the end of mask-wearing altogether, which is not the best option at this stage.

You are quick to chide me, but slow to think about what it is I'm actually saying.

[Voltaire2]

67. The vaccinated plus the already had it is well over 50%

I'm 'chiding' you because you are claiming superior expertise over the actual experts and making arguments supposedly based on data.

It does not matter at all to the rest of us at this point what the covidiots do. They are not going to overwhelm the ICUs. They are not going to infect us. It is not a 'real problem' that we can't tell the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. It doesn't matter if you are vaccinated.

If you aren't comfortable going unmasked, then wear a mask. But please stop pretending that doing so is the best policy.

[LanternWaste]

68. Ten bucks says you fail to see the irony in your having said that.

"You are quick to chide me, but slow to think..."

Make it twenty... that which is readily apparent is more often than not, a much safer wager. Quickly now, let's lecture people on their language while we're at it.

[CrackityJones75]

50. Guy on internet says the scientists are wrong.

[CentralMass]

52. Thi truth of the matter will become apparent over the next month or two.

I am very skeptical and think that it was a premature decision and a gamble. I just don't see why they had to change the directive on masks at this time and I think that there was political pressure involved on that decision. Hopefully the "science" is right.

The CDC has earned a fair level of distrust. Like not recommending masks for general public because they feared that the medical community would not have enough. That could have been handled differently. They could have been honest about it and suggested alternative face coverings. It could have prevented a lot of the spread.
So I believe the CDC has a lot of brilliant dedicated people but I don't trust their adminstrators and the politicians who manipulate them.

[Ms. Toad]

71. The surge may be delayed until the fall -

The combination of vaccination + outdoors activity may provide enough protection that the surge is delayed. But - unless there is a dramatic increase in the number vaccinated, I think it is inevitable.

Far too many people still infected. Far too few vaccinated. We're too selfish to help protect those who cannot be vaccinated or who cannot create immunity if they are.

[honest.abe]

75. I predict you are wrong.

Based on the opinions of actual experts on the matter.