***Generic Ballot Democrats 50% Trumplicans 40%***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/may-omnibus-political/



If those numbers hold and are close to correct the Trumplicans are in heap big trouble.

[TheRealNorth]

1. Generic ballots don't mean too much....

If the votes are not where we need them (in swing districts or swing states). As I recall, the generic ballot was about +10 before the November election.

[Amishman]

3. right before the 2020 election it was tighter than that

538's last A rated generic ballot poll prior to the Nov election was NBC which had us at +5, 48 to 43

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. "As I recall, the generic ballot was about +10 before the November election."

It was 6.8. The actual results were 3.1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

That's why we didn't do well and I prefaced my remarks by saying the Republicans are in heap big trouble if the polls are right. In 2018 we won the generic ballot by 8.7 points and picked up 40 or so seats in the House.

[TheRealNorth]

8. True that

But if you look at the RCP politics average for the previous 2 years, it was hanging around +7-8 (and even hit +10 in July 2020).

I guess my point is that I don't think many minds have been changed - only hardened.

[Amishman]

2. yup, if you are the gambling type, PredictIt has high payouts for Dem wins

Their betting books are completely out of sync with polling like this.

For control of the house post 2022 election, a NO for Republican is at 30 cents. So for our keeping the house, $30 pays out $100 before PI's fees. Senate R NO is 51 cents, $51 pays out $100 before PI fees.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. All depends on COVID and the economy.

[dawg day]

6. They used to say (pre-2016) that 10% would mean good election for Dem

I hope good strong candidates start running now. The GOPers seem determined to primary all non-Trumpers, and that's how they end up with the truly crazies, like the "That girl got pregnant at 14 and I was a stand-up guy and married her then dumped her and she committed suicide and none of this is remotely my fault.'

He's running against Cheney. Granted, this is Wyoming, and it's beyond unlikely that a Dem would win, but maybe some voters would decide not to vote rather than vote for another molester. Happened in Alabama.

(And why oh why would the GOP ever run these guys? And there's the "pro-lifer" in TN who forced his mistress to have an abortion, and they keep electing him.)

[liberalmuse]

7. Unfortunately this is meaningless.

Polls might say otherwise, but when at the voting booth, Republicans would vote for a giant bucket of diarrhea if it had an "R" next to its name. As a matter of fact, they've already done that and will do it again.

[carpetbagger]

9. We were +10 in the Summer of 2009

The electorate may be.different,.but maybe not.