What everyone is getting wrong about the Republican party and their love of Trump.

[Yavin4]

It's working for them. It's working incredibly well for them. They came within a few thousand votes of retaining the White House and the Senate and also taking over the House. They hold a majority of the state houses. They've passed, and continue to pass, voter suppression bills. If history is a guide, they're poised to re-gain control of the congress next year. And, they control the SCOTUS.

There has been little to no political downside from being loyal to Trump. None. No real substantial electoral losses. With the possible exception of the presidency, but that too works in their favor. They can fund raise forever off of the big lie.

So, why abandon Trump? Why leave the cult when it's working wonders for them? Trust that if Mary Cheney last name was Mary Smith, she too would be in the cult. There are bigger downsides to turning against Trump than remaining loyal to him.

The Democrats need to understand this and stop trying to "rescue" Republicans from the cult. The only chance that they have is to build a strong record of tangible achievements and motivate their base to turn out on election day.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Your first premise is factually incorrect. As is the thrust, though I like your last paragraph.

Biden won by millions and millions of votes. Not "a few thousand". Not even considering swing votes in six states. You'd have to reverse hundreds of thousands of votes in four or five of those states to bring tRump back.

It is NOT working for them. They lost the Presidency, they lost the House (2018), and they lost the Senate.

[FoxNewsSucks]

3. Biden, like Clinton, won millions of popular votes.

Obviously they both "won" the election.

But MF45 was within 44,000 votes of an Electoral College tie in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin . Biden also won three other states by slim margins (thousands). Source: https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency.

That's the problem with the EC.

[enki23]

13. I hate that "44,000" analysis so much, I can't even begin to express it. But I'll try.

The odds of losing exactly 44,000 votes in those exact states is astronomically smaller than the odds of simply getting 44,000 fewer votes.

It's useful to note that the electoral college was as biased in favor of Republican votes as it was, and continues to be. But when people say something like "well, actually, Biden only won by 44,000 votes" it makes me want to scream and throw things. Because it's not even wrong. It's nonsense. Even considering the electoral college.

[Maraya1969]

16. A republican has not won the popular vote in a presidential election in 28 years

That says a lot about what people really want in this country.

They have rigged things up in their favor even when they don't have the votes. We should have some special organization devoted to fighting all these systems that allows them to win.

This country is becoming more and more Democratic. We need to make sure we are represented.

[Zeitghost]

31. More like 17 years.

2004 wasn't that long ago

[uponit7771]

39. True, once in 30 years is horrible. Americans don't want GQP policies but they have a better ....

.... messaging infrastructure.

[KS Toronado]

35. If HR1 would do away with the Electoral College

And go with a popular vote would be a huge help for us.

[Towlie]

60. It's a Catch-22! In order to regain the power we deserve we must first regain the power we deserve.

 
←

I might as well make that my sig.

[uponit7771]

4. Prez elections aren't decided by popular vote but by electoral college so the OP is correct as

... far as the margin of vote difference in "swing" states.

It is NOT working for them. They lost the Presidency, they lost the House (2018), and they lost the Senate.

Voter suppression ... DOES ... work for them, dems can not depend on brute forcing every election to win.

That would be foolish on its face, people ... voter suppression is ONE of the reasons the US isn't at the top of examples for Democracy Index TODAY !!

We're SUPPOSED to be a democratically elected republic but can't get the democrat (small d) down

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Thx, but yes Voter Suppression is terrible problem whether it works or not. . . . nt

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia would've swung the election

It was around 40,000 total votes between the three states that made up the difference.

[soldierant]

40. I see a problem with the last paragraph.

Tangible achievements are indeed what government is all about ... if you are sane. If not, government is about grandstanding. Yes, we need tangible achievements. But they are not by themselves going to win any Republican voters. Unless we can turn them into fear and make that stick ("Republicans will take away your ____!&quot And that is not as easy as I am making it sound.Republican elected officials brazenly take credit for benefits which they voted against, and Republican voters believe theminstead of the truth.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

46. Thing is, insanity (untreated) is not a winning strategy. GQP will do themselves in. But ...

We must be on guard against all their insane dirty tricks and underhanded tactics and fascist strategies while at the same time staying out of the way of their mistake while shining a light on it and keeping the focus on it all.

[uponit7771]

2. ".. and continue to pass, voter suppression bills..." 👈🏾👈🏾👈🏾 THIS!!!! People DO NOT understand

... how well voter suppression works in America and around the world!!

That's my MAIN THEORY on why our polling (from exit to pre vote the day before) is so off !!!

The polling firms do NOT factor in a heavy voter suppression effort from the GQP

[PortTack]

8. All of the voter suppression laws are unconstitutional and are facing court challenges

If not all, the most egregious parts of these laws will be taken down

For more information follow
Marc Elias on twitter and his organization democracydocket.com

[Aldemelod]

7. Changing the minds of Trump cultists is futile, and they aren't worth the effort

They can't win the presidency or recapture the Senate or House by themselves.

It is independents who matter, and not even all of them. Just enough of them. We shouldn't make the task more difficult than it needs to be.

[PortTack]

11. You nailed it!! His cult makes up about 1 in 8 of the 24% of the 168 million that ID as qgop

That’s a very small number

[Justice matters.]

24. And there's a "new" poll... (66% don't want drumpf to run in 2024)

Quinnipiac poll:

Asked whether they'd like to see Trump run for president in 2024, 66% of Americans do not want him to run. Just 30% want him to run.

Link to tweet

[certainot]

25. a huge part of why they ever win is dems let them have 1500 unchallenged radio stations to

lie all day to 50 mil a week. that coordinated buzz effects much of the country and soaks up into the independent and apathetic and lazy uninformed

the serious base is small - the hard core dittoheads - who just lost their liar king. and central messaging is done without limbaugh

all dems have to do is stop ignoring it (using AI to monitor/expose/boycott it, etc) until the ad industry starts losing money so bad it has to break up the monopoly - they this iteration of the GOP will have nothing

[mahina]

37. 1500, wow.

I’m sure that’s a big part of it!

[uponit7771]

42. THIS !!!! ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾 the GQP messaging / feedback infrastructure is WAY more established than dems

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

43. Yes!

This should be one of our main battlefronts.

[mahina]

36. Maybe so, certainly used to be. Now?

I really think it’s one on one and the time for polite forbearance of ignorant anti-American support for Republicans as in the past

[pwb]

9. It is his use of the G.O.P. that should worry the G.O.P.

Trump is the extended Con job on the Cons. He is like a big sliver that has grown over Pukes skin.

[sop]

10. "...build a strong record of tangible achievements and motivate their base to turn out..."

This is exactly what Democrats have to do.

[stopdiggin]

12. the GOP was doing quite nicely on a number of the scorecards

you mentioned (statehouses, courts, congressional representation, gerrymander) prior to Trump.

(your point that their movement is working for them is an accurate one -- but they are not beholden to Trump for all these victories. And the smarter ones know it.)

[Cosmocat]

14. Your right AND he is who they always wanted to be

The "base" loves him because he doesn't try to pretty it up.

[progressoid]

15. I heard Hannity yesterday beating the wardrums for the House and Senate

If they can rile up their base enough we could be in for a unpleasant 2023 and 2024.

And on the local level they are kicking our asses out here in what was a purple voting bloc.

[PortTack]

28. Special elections held in April around the country did not go well for the qgop

St. Louis picked up a progressive new FE Mayor, they had a couple of other good wins in MO as well. Sheboygan WI has a new dem mayor as does Moline, il. There were several other wins around the country too.

Rile up their base? You mean the 24% of the block that now identifies as qgop and shrinks daily??

[njhoneybadger]

17. Your absolutely right, and if Covid didn't happen they would have won everything.

I don't think people realize how much trouble the country is in.

[world wide wally]

18. And then you have to convince them to live in a reality based world

[bucolic_frolic]

19. It's working for them? Then why isn't Trump president and why do they have to cheat to win?

[PortTack]

29. Thank you!! Some days it seems ppl here forget that the Dems are not without power or options

[Yavin4]

33. Trump barely lost. Barely.

They cheat because that helps them win.

[bucolic_frolic]

51. I do know what you mean.

We need to strengthen our ideology that gets in people's minds, our ground operations like we did in Georgia, and we should tie Republicans to voter suppression until the two are synonymous. We must make noise. As for MAGAts, keep arresting them. Justice and jail will wake up a few percent of them. As for Trump, we should throw the book at him everywhere. DOJ has decisions to make.

[BeyondGeography]

20. Rupert Murdoch and the RWNJ media factory have created a monster

And no one tapped into it as heedlessly, as shamelessly and as effectively as Trump did.

Re. supporting Trump, it’s not so much that “it’s working for them.” The main thing is they have no choice in the matter. The Bush/Romney wing, not to mention most DC Republicans, have lived in fear of the base for decades. The power and reach of RW messaging in all its forms created a growing imbalance between what the base believed and wanted and what the GOP Establishment was willing to say and fight for.

This problem was finessed before Trump by electability arguments in order to sell “mainstream” candidacies. But even before Trump that strategy was in trouble, no small thanks to Koch Brother money and its coordination with the RW message machine to primary GOP moderates from the right, ie the Eric Cantor earthquake. Then came Trump, who in the minds of his supporters killed the electability argument once and for all and the rest is history.

As you say, there is no rescuing Republicans. They are a lost cause. The problem isn’t at the office holder level; it’s their voters. The only rescuing Democrats should be thinking about is how to help Democrats win more votes and defeat more Republicans so that, first and foremost, our hands are less tied and their moderate electability argument carries some weight again.

[tiredtoo]

21. The Democrats have to focus on Down ticket races

Those are the positions we must control to avoid all the crazy laws repubs are passing locally.

[RobinA]

22. All I Know

is that I'm damn scared for 2022. That's next year. If we don't keep at least one chamber we are done. And by "we" in the previous sentence I mean the country. I don't even care about the Supreme Court anymore, we've lost it. All we can hope for is that with a lifetime appointment some of them will do the right thing once in a while.

[PortTack]

30. The senate looks to be favorable to the Dems in '22. We should pick up 1-2 seats

The house.. I’m not giving up! We do have our work cut for us

[lunatica]

23. We should just ghost them

Treat them like they don’t exist. Do not engage them. Do not acknowledge them. Do not bother with them. They don’t have the right to exist in our reality. Throw them to the lions. Ignore their presence.

[Alpeduez21]

26. This is awesome and well said. Thank you n/t

[SKKY]

27. Actually, it's much simpler than that...

...Most Republicans would prefer if the US was led by an Autocrat who shares their values. And the reason support continues to coalesce around Trump is he is an Autocrat. They're at an advantage because they know Democrats still believe in the democratic process, and they're using that against us. I personally think if Trump had won a 2nd term, we would be looking at a constitutional amendment to get rid of, or at the very least drastically change the 22nd amendment.

[CrackityJones75]

32. Hey look More!

Hey look More about how life is just fucking peachy for trump and the republicans and how doom is surely going to fall on the democrats!

JFC we hold the house, senate, and presidency. Yes they are working to try and stop us with underhanded tactics. Newsflash: They been doing that forever.

Put on the adult sized pants and get to work.

[Mr.Bill]

34. You left out the part about Trump

losing the Presidency and both houses of Congress in four years. No way I'd hitch my wagon to that horse.

[uponit7771]

45. By 44,000 votes the GQP is going to make up that amount via voter suppression alone

[Mr.Bill]

48. Well, I guess if you cherry pick where those votes are.

But the fact remains that seven million more people voted for Biden than Trump. The fact is We Won, and we won big. We won in places where we haven't won for a long time.

[uponit7771]

49. There's no cherry picking, relatively smart DU is still focusing on useless popular vote and we lose

... by being mesmerized by M$M "horse race" memes.

We'll get bent faced if Putin's Whore wins again because we took our eye off the EC ball and on to winning 50 million more votes.

We won the meaningless to the rules popular vote in a big way ... great, we need to make sure the kGQP isn't going to voter suppress their way into another term by winning districts etc where the ECs can be taken

[Yavin4]

56. You bring up another reason why Trump is good for them.

Republicans do not need huge voting majorities to attain power. Not in the House, Senate, or WhiteHouse. They just need to maximize the vote of their followers, and Trump helps them do that more than any other Republican. More than Fox News.

Think of this way. Say there's no Trump. What is the Republican party? Josh Hawley? Rand Paul? Ron DeSantis? They're nothing. Absolutely nothing.

[uponit7771]

61. RIGHT !!! He brings the 5-10% racist assholes with him that get the gGQP over the hump

[Yavin4]

63. Which is why he outperforms his polling numbers.

He captures that fringe vote for Republicans. Something that no other Republican can do. Not without seeming inauthentic.

[uponit7771]

64. +1, "Not without seeming inauthentic."

[Sibelius Fan]

38. Only 25% of voters identify as Rs, and their current racist actions are causing that

number to shrink.

Ds show up, we win.

[Yavin4]

41. They don't need big numbers to gain power.

They can attain power by winning a minority of the total vote. Trump helps them energize this minority.

[uponit7771]

44. They don't need a majority of votes just EC's which are easier to steal !! Voter Suppression can get

... them the 44,000 vote margin Trump lost by last time easy peasy.

[andym]

50. First, many registered Democrats vote Republican in states like Kentucky and W Virginia

And given that the US political system is strongly biased toward geographical representation, Democrats just showing up is not enough to vanquish the GOP in many locations.

Look here at the totals of registered voters for KY:
https://elect.ky.gov/Resources/Documents/voterstatscounty-20210515-103052.pdf
1653756 Democrats
1574268 Republicans
183930 Other
Democrats actually have a plurality in KY, BUT see below.

...
WV has a small plurality of Republicans
Republican 433,287 37.80%
Democratic 408,572 35.64%
Unaffiliated 256,225 22.35%
Minor parties 37,313 3.25%
Libertarian 8,796 0.77%
Mountain 2,183 0.19%
Almost the same number of Democrats and Republicans in WV.

It's not that the Democrats don't come out in these states, it's just that some are actually voting Republican.
Trump won 62% of the vote in KY and 68.6% of the vote in WV.

Then look here for how dominant the GOP is geographically using the 2020 presidential results map:

[Mr.Bill]

52. That map would only say the republicans are dominant

if acres voted. Acres don't vote. People do.

[andym]

55. Acres don't vote?, well actually they kind of do-- that is the problem our geographical based system

and why a vote in Wyoming is worth far more than in CA for Senator for example-- It's why Democrats don't have huge majorities in the Senate. Not only that, but the same principle often applies at the state district level (not talking about Congress)-- not all districts in the US are the same size at the state level, so districts with smaller population levels can dominate. We are far from a one man-one vote country.

If you don't believe me, you can consult this NY Times article (behind a paywall, sorry) Here are some quotes:
"As American as Apple Pie? The Rural Vote’s Disproportionate Slice of Piower"
Emily Badger
Nov. 20, 2016
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/upshot/as-american-as-apple-pie-the-rural-votes-disproportionate-slice-of-power.html

"Rural America, even as it laments its economic weakness, retains vastly disproportionate electoral strength. Rural voters were able to nudge Donald J. Trump to power despite Hillary Clinton’s large margins in cities like New York. In a House of Representatives that structurally disadvantages Democrats because of their tight urban clustering, rural voters helped Republicans hold their cushion. In the Senate, the least populous states are now more overrepresented than ever before. And the growing unity of rural Americans as a voting bloc has converted the rural bias in national politics into a potent Republican advantage.

“If you’re talking about a political system that skews rural, that’s not as important if there isn’t a major cleavage between rural and urban voting behavior,” said Frances Lee, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland. “But urban and rural voting behavior is so starkly different now so that this has major political consequences for who has power.
...
The Electoral College is just one example of how an increasingly urban country has inherited the political structures of a rural past. Today, states containing just 17 percent of the American population, a historic low, can theoretically elect a Senate majority, Dr. Lee said. The bias also shapes the House of Representatives.
...
Still, the House retains a rural bias. Republican voters are more efficiently distributed across the country than Democrats, who are concentrated in cities. That means that even when Democrats win 50 percent of voters nationwide, they invariably hold fewer than 50 percent of House seats, regardless of partisan gerrymandering..."

[Mr.Bill]

59. I understand all about the Electoral College.

Your map showed counties and had nothing to do with the EC.

[andym]

62. It's not just the electoral college, it's the Senate and even to some extent the House

read the article. Here's more:
https://citymonitor.ai/government/how-winner-take-all-elections-keep-urban-voters-at-a-disadvantage
"But the US political system is stacked against the Democratic Party, as it is currently constituted, because it is also stacked against city residents. The bulk of Democratic voters are heavily concentrated in dense urban centres, while districts for the House of Representatives, and most state legislatures, often divide urban populations and dilute them with rural or exurban interests. Even without gerrymandering, it is very hard to draw legislative maps that allow competitive elections. "

[Sibelius Fan]

53. Lots of low-population, open space represented by all that red.

[andym]

57. But that space translates into power because of geographical bias of our system

Here is why:

"As American as Apple Pie? The Rural Vote’s Disproportionate Slice of Power"
Emily Badger
Nov. 20, 2016
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/upshot/as-american-as-apple-pie-the-rural-votes-disproportionate-slice-of-power.html

"Rural America, even as it laments its economic weakness, retains vastly disproportionate electoral strength. Rural voters were able to nudge Donald J. Trump to power despite Hillary Clinton’s large margins in cities like New York. In a House of Representatives that structurally disadvantages Democrats because of their tight urban clustering, rural voters helped Republicans hold their cushion. In the Senate, the least populous states are now more overrepresented than ever before. And the growing unity of rural Americans as a voting bloc has converted the rural bias in national politics into a potent Republican advantage.

“If you’re talking about a political system that skews rural, that’s not as important if there isn’t a major cleavage between rural and urban voting behavior,” said Frances Lee, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland. “But urban and rural voting behavior is so starkly different now so that this has major political consequences for who has power.
...
The Electoral College is just one example of how an increasingly urban country has inherited the political structures of a rural past. Today, states containing just 17 percent of the American population, a historic low, can theoretically elect a Senate majority, Dr. Lee said. The bias also shapes the House of Representatives.
...
Still, the House retains a rural bias. Republican voters are more efficiently distributed across the country than Democrats, who are concentrated in cities. That means that even when Democrats win 50 percent of voters nationwide, they invariably hold fewer than 50 percent of House seats, regardless of partisan gerrymandering..."

[madinmaryland]

54. Land does not vote. People vote. nt

[andym]

58. But some people's votes count far more

Consult this NY Times article (behind a paywall, sorry) Here are some quotes about how rural voters (those red spaces have more power):
"As American as Apple Pie? The Rural Vote’s Disproportionate Slice of Piower"
Emily Badger
Nov. 20, 2016
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/upshot/as-american-as-apple-pie-the-rural-votes-disproportionate-slice-of-power.html

"Rural America, even as it laments its economic weakness, retains vastly disproportionate electoral strength. Rural voters were able to nudge Donald J. Trump to power despite Hillary Clinton’s large margins in cities like New York. In a House of Representatives that structurally disadvantages Democrats because of their tight urban clustering, rural voters helped Republicans hold their cushion. In the Senate, the least populous states are now more overrepresented than ever before. And the growing unity of rural Americans as a voting bloc has converted the rural bias in national politics into a potent Republican advantage.

“If you’re talking about a political system that skews rural, that’s not as important if there isn’t a major cleavage between rural and urban voting behavior,” said Frances Lee, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland. “But urban and rural voting behavior is so starkly different now so that this has major political consequences for who has power.
...
The Electoral College is just one example of how an increasingly urban country has inherited the political structures of a rural past. Today, states containing just 17 percent of the American population, a historic low, can theoretically elect a Senate majority, Dr. Lee said. The bias also shapes the House of Representatives.
...
Still, the House retains a rural bias. Republican voters are more efficiently distributed across the country than Democrats, who are concentrated in cities. That means that even when Democrats win 50 percent of voters nationwide, they invariably hold fewer than 50 percent of House seats, regardless of partisan gerrymandering..."

[In It to Win It]

47. That cult like mentality existed before Trump

It just attached to the party and not an individual.

They had the senate before Trump.
They had the house before Trump.
Lost both because of Trump.

Could’ve gotten a second Trump term.
But they lost that because of Trump.

They held a majority of state houses before if I recall correctly, and that hasn’t really changed much with or without Trump.

I think they’re loyalty is misplaced. I don’t think it’s because of Trump that they’re winning state houses, slightly losing the senate and slightly losing the house. These people were gonna vote Republican regardless.

We’re not trying to rescue them. We’re trying to win.