The President's Reelect At Princeton Consortium Stands At 84%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84% – still a Russian-roulette situation for the Democrats.

Two weeks ago, the calculation dictated that Obama would fall from a high of +6.2%. Today, it predicts the converse. Let me review the contributing facts.

The President’s been ahead all season. I said the Meta-Margin should float around Obama +3.0 +/- 2.2%. This means that as of today, he’s in a place I said he’d be about 14% of the time.
We now know that the debate spike was large – but not long-lasting.
In the 2004 and 2008 races, the race’s snapshot on any day was not predictive of where it would be 3 weeks later. Closer than 3 weeks, it gets slowly more predictive. The movement from today to Election Day should be about 1.8% (1 standard deviation), perhaps more in extreme cases.
We don’t know which way things will move next. However, the people surveyed in June-September are the same people being surveyed in October. Movement from an extreme is likely to be toward the equilibrium. Think of the Presidential race as a swinging pendulum.
Of course, there is a chance that this will not happen, and Mitt Romney will win the Presidency. It’s like hurricanes: storms go to unexpected places.

As I said, I think Romney’s win probability is about 16%. To a Democrat, that’s a six-shooter with one shell labeled “R-outcome”. To a Republican, it’s loaded with five shell labeled “D-outcome”. Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/

[greatauntoftriplets]

1. Thanks for posting this.

I trust studies like this vs. polls. People who respond to polls are notoriously fickle, IMO.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Polls Are Extremely Important. Any One Poll Isn't.

One poll is just a data point.

[Tigress DEM]

3. But so many voting for Obama are "off the grid" so to speak.

Households with cell phones only, no land lines.

I screen my calls and I don't DO polls that call me because their questions skew the results.
1. Do you hate the President because he's a baby killer or because he's a bad President?

Most DEMs WORK full time and sometimes 2 or 3 jobs so we aren't at home to answer pollsters anyway.

Plenty show up for the rallies.

Plenty will get out and VOTE.

[JackN415]

9. I chatted with some women Obama supporters. They don't answer polls...

like you.

related thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021541900

[bocephus0706]

4. Great post

I am a teamleader with OFA (Obama for America).
Like everybody else i see the polls that are all over the place. And when you research the various polls you find out that a lot of them cannot be trusted.
I joined this board to simply ask all of you to do what we have been doing for over a year now.....is to make sure that Democrats show up to vote.
When Democrats vote, Democrats win. It is that simple.
Negative Adds, bogus polls etc will not matter as long as we all make sure that every Democrat votes.
So please talk to your neighbors, your friends, your associates, strangers in your neighborhood, your sphere of influences. Join an Obama grassroots team and help get out the vote.
That is what everybody needs to do now.

thanks

[fugop]

5. Thanks so much for what you're doing! N/T

[RagAss]

6. Keep up the good work.

[iemitsu]

7. welcome to DU, bocephus0706

and thanks for the info.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Thank You. You Are On The Side Of The Angels

.

[JackN415]

10. +1 n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

12. Welcome to DU, bocephus0706.

[Stellar]

13. Thanks for keeping things straight!

We need to join together and win this election!

[littlemissmartypants]

14. Welcome to the DU!

Voting Obama in NC.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. "Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides"

Republicans and especially the Ts are divorced from reality.

Much in the same way that Ryan's fauxto-op was about as real as his numbers.

And Romney's statement that nobody dies from lack of health insurance.