What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can -- And Can't -- Tell Us About 2022

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

On Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury easily defeated Republican state Sen. Mark Moores by 25 percentage points in a special House election in New Mexico for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland’s old seat.

This was the first head-to-head match up between a Democrat and a Republican for a congressional seat in Joe Biden’s presidency, and the fact that Stansbury won by such a comfortable margin could be a positive sign for Democrats headed into the 2022 midterm elections. Special elections can tell us a lot about the national environment, but only once we have results from a lot of them. And so far, our sample size of federal special elections is small: Only four have taken place during Biden’s tenure, and the trend at this point is split. Republicans outperformed the district’s partisan lean in two of them, while Democrats have also now overperformed in two.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-new-mexico-1st-special-election-can-and-cant-tell-us-about-2022/

[regnaD kciN]

1. What 2016 and 2020 can tell us about 2022...

...is to pay no attention to FiveThirtyEight and all the other polling pundits, as their predictions seem only slightly more accurate than flipping a coin.

[womanofthehills]

2. I voted for Stansbury & so did all my dem friends in my very small town

My Republican friends don’t follow politics that much and did not even know there was an election going on.