Well, that didn't take long. COVID Cases over the last 7 days have increased over the prior 7 days.

[Ms. Toad]

After slowly declining (a few percent at a time), then rapidly declining (as much as 33% over the prior week's cases), we went from 33% down a few days ago to about 15% down yesterday, and today we are up .7% over the prior week's cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

[MerryHolidays]

1. Heavens...not again. PLEASE NOT AGAIN nt

[Ms. Toad]

5. Well, the way to prevent it is to stop pretending it's over

until it actually is.

When our county has only 40% vaccinated - and 95% of people aren't wearing masks - it doesn't take a genius to recognize that this is a recipe for disaster.

[Hortensis]

60. A lot more for low-vax areas than high-vax areas.

The picture is about to change. Be prepared for a huge upswing in enraged and irrational attacks from areas where the pandemic continues to rage. While more responsible and fortunate populations return to something a lot closer to normal.

[drray23]

2. I have not yet perused the numbers carefully to see if its caused by states with low vac rates

meaning the trumpers in red states who refuse the vaccine.

[global1]

3. Post Memorial Day Surge Maybe....

Maybe the CDC should have made the no mask decision 2 to 3 weeks after memorial day. Might have jumped the gun.

[Ms. Toad]

6. Definitely jumped the gun. I said that when they made the announcement. n/t

[OhioChick]

64. I agreed with you and got reamed for it...

This is FAR from over.

[Ms. Toad]

68. Par for the course.

I've been getting reamed for my accurate statements about COVID for more than a year now.

[OhioChick]

69. As have I n/t

[notpolltested]

42. No it's just reporting for a Holiday week to a non Holiday week.

CDC was right to make that decision to incentive people to get vaccinated as it did spur a bounce in doses.

[SoonerPride]

53. Exactly.

I trust in the CDC under Joe Biden.

I couldn’t trust it under Agolf Twitler because they suppressed the science and muzzled the brightest minds.

But now people should trust the CDC.

[BigmanPigman]

4. Did you look at the UK on that chart?

I checked it out yesterday and the Delta variant seems to be very robust.

[Ms. Toad]

7. Yeouch!

I've been focusing on the US. When I plotted it yesterday I thought we had a couple more days before we started growing.

But the Delta variant + lack of access to vaccines among 0-11 year olds are the two main reasons I think we are really premature in acting as if it is over.

[BigmanPigman]

9. This time around the younger people will be the ones going

into the hospitals. They won't be dying but will get very ill. That is the latest medical prediction that I have heard today.

[Ms. Toad]

11. Definitely - at the start anyway.

It is 0-11 year olds who cannot yet be vaccinated, and the youngsters who are later to vaccination generally.

I find this focus on dying (I've got such a minimal chance of dying that I'm willing to live with the risk), without paying attention to the reality that a lot of people end up gravely ill - with permanent damage - really troubles me.

[roamer65]

13. Just wait till October.

4 weeks after schools go back to in-person instruction.

That’s when the 3rd wave will start.

The kids in school below 12 will circulate it and bring it home.

[BigmanPigman]

16. I taught 1st grade and was sick 90% of the year

and that was with a flu shot, eating right, exercising, sleeping well, etc. Any teacher who works without being vaccinated has a death wish and that goes for any parent who sends their kid to school too. Just think of their siblings and the spread continues.

[roamer65]

17. Bingo.

I expect the 3rd wave right around 1 October.

[SoCalDavidS]

18. You Mean The Fourth Wave

There have already been at least 3 waves. Just sayin'.

[roamer65]

21. 3, 4, 5th...

This virus isn’t gonna give up until most of the world’s population is vaccinated.

[womanofthehills]

65. It's mostly young adults getting the Delta variant in UK

One in every 20 vaxed people getting Covid plus lots who only had one vaccine dose.

AROUND one in 20 people infected with the Delta variant of coronavirus were fully vaccinated and at least 14 days on from their second vaccine dose, according to new data.

The figures relate to cases in England since February this year, when the variant was first detected in the UK, but the pattern is likely to be extremely similar in Scotland.

The Delta variant, first identified in India, is now believed to be responsible for more than 90 per cent of Covid infections across the UK with 3,035 cases confirmed in Scotland to date - 1524 in the past week alone.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19367363.one-20-delta-covid-infections-fully-vaccinated-patients/

[Ms. Toad]

67. That's consistent with the general protection of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations -

a 95% reduction in susceptibility. 1/20 = 5%.

[genxlib]

8. Patience

There is always a blip following a three day weekend. Usually it isn’t real. Just a spike in the data because of testing and reporting delays associated with the holiday.

Let’s see what it is in a week.

[Ms. Toad]

19. The curve is relatively smooth over the past 3 weeks.

Steady decline, leveling out for several days around 20% weekly decline, then a dip to about 33%, then a linear rise for the past e days from a -33% to a +.7%.

There is no 3-day weekend anomaly because the data covers an entire week (compared to an earlier entire week)

[genxlib]

30. There is definitely a three day weekend blip and there always is

You can see it over Memorial Day 2020 and Labor Day 2020 as well. If you look closely, you can even see it in MLK and Presidents Day.

I know a 7 days average makes it seem like it wouldn't matter but the data points that include 4 days of depressed numbers over the long weekend will be arbitrarily lower than it would have been in a full week on the real trend. Then the data points that includes the bounce back testing and reporting will be arbitrarily higher. It is not a coincidence that the first day of the fake rising trend is exactly one week after Memorial Day. That is because the day before included Memorial Day but that day included a normal Monday as part of the weekly average.

In fact, the curve has already started to normalize because the mini peak was on 6/8 and the following two days are lower. Real trends take longer to resolve than that. Just draw a line through the mini-trough and mini hump and that represents the real trend line.

Trust me, I think we will have a minor surge over the summer but I don't think this is it.

[Ace Rothstein]

39. It is also a difference of 700 cases in a country of 330 million people.

This could just be where we level off for now with some minor fluctuations. I don't think an increase of 700 cases across the entire country is cause for concern though.

[Ace Rothstein]

62. This is the correct take.

[OAITW r.2.0]

10. Both shots as of 5/20. Still wearing a double mask indoors.

Call me old fashioned.

[Ms. Toad]

14. I'm just doing a single mask.

I've been vaccinated since the end of March.

My masks are all double thickness and well-fitted (no gaps at the side, around the nose, under the chin, etc.) I'm relatively confident in my ability to stay safe. I've been right about everything else, so far . . .

But I have absolutly no problems with taking additional precautions. I'd rather people do more, rather than less.

[BigmanPigman]

20. My doctor said that I should wait a month

after getting my 2nd shot before I go to the dentist. I haven't had my teeth cleaned since March, 2020. I'll go after 6 weeks, to be extra careful.

CA isn't lifting its indoor mask mandate until at lest June 28th to protect workers. Cal/OSHA is in charge of this.

[bamagal62]

12. Chicago lifted mask mandate today. Went to 3-4 stores, everyone wearing a mask inside.

[Ms. Toad]

15. The two stores I went to on Wednesday -

out of 40 people I saw, there were 2 wearing masks (one in each store).

Our vaccination rate is 40% in our county. 60% x 40 people is 24, not 2. I know that I might just have hit two atypical groups . . . but when every store has more than 4/10 unmasked something is wrong.

And - I got yelled at for wearing a mask on Wednesday.

[SoCalDavidS]

22. Care To Share The Story Of How You Got Yelled At?

I'm concerned, since I plan to wear a mask for the next several months most likely.

And that math is called the American "honor" System.

[Ms. Toad]

24. I was heading in to work

I typically find it easier to wear items of clothing than carry them, so I put my mask on as I hopped out of the car to walk across the street from the parking deck into the building. I crossed the street while a couple of yahoos in a pick-up truck were waiting for me to clear the crosswalk so they could turn the corner. Something told me they weren't the friendliest sort - and sure enough, as they peeled around the corner the passenger yelled out the window at me, "Take off your mask!"

At work things have been fine. I am a Dean - so students might be a bit hesitant to be obnoxious. I also have cancer - and most of them know it (or can figure out something is up because of the large new skin graft on my arm that is visibe since it is warm weather and I'm not wearing sleeeves. But so far, they seem inclined to ask my permission before even removing their own masks. When one asked - and I explained the rules (we're not even allowed to ask if they are vaccinated) - his response was, "Yes, I know - but what would you prefer."

The faculty I have encountered, by and large, are not wearing masks (but are socially distancing from me because I am wearing a mask). Most of the student's arent either. But inside the building no one is giving me grief for wearing it.

I'll be wearing it until it feel safe not to. My tentative citeria is 70% vaccination (we're nowhere near that).

[SoCalDavidS]

26. I Fear Stories Like Yours, And Worse, Will Become More Prevalent

Are you in a Red state?

I'm worried that I'm going to say something to one of these assholes that gets me hurt or killed. There are days when I simply have no tolerance for any of the MAGA "Covid Is The Flu," "Vaccines Are Useless" and "Masks Don't Help" Bullshit.

[Ms. Toad]

71. Red-ish.

I'm in Ohio - where the governor has been very aggressive (compared to red state standards) - but has backed off in the face of legislative action that took away much of the power to act in the face of a public health emergency.

Population-wise, more red than blue.

[BigmanPigman]

23. I got an unexpected discount for wearing my mask at

Ace Hardware. The staff liked mine in particular since I hand lettered "trump" inside a red circle with a slash through it. I live in a blue area so my masks always get positive reactions. Everyone here wears a mask, even outside, alone while walking a dog.

[Ms. Toad]

25. It would be delightful if my community were that progressive.

Unfortunately, they are not.

[Ace Rothstein]

40. I was in River North and Streeterville yesterday and did not see the same.

Places that require masks and most people wear them but not all. If masks aren't required it is maybe 50/50. I was in the unmasked group where masks aren't required as I'm vaccinated.

[spinbaby]

51. Most are unmasked here

Rural western Pennsylvania—probably 90% unmasked. What gets me is that probably half of those who do have a mask are wearing it on their chin or under their nose. Why even bother?

[Meowmee]

27. Time will tell

There is no way to tell how bad it will be especially with variants. It is just the same stupidity over again. We are still masking and sd and will be for a long time. The masking decision was an obvious mistake, you need to wait until infection numbers are way down and vax numbers are way up. Most people in our area are still masking but a few more are not than in the past couple of weeks. I expect the fall/ winter to be when shtf but I hope I am wrong. I just wonder when or really if people will get a clue….

[Ms. Toad]

28. I'm surprised at the quick turn-around.

I wasn't surprised to see it stall out at 20% for around a week, once the announcement was made. But then it dropped dramatically again for a few days (as much as 33% for a few days in a row). But the last few days it's been a pretty linear slow down in the rate of decline, and now actually more cases again.

I was hoping (maybe still hope) that we last until the fall before a new surge

[NJCher]

29. virus effectiveness

on Delta variant is still very good. Can't recall exact figure but it was high.

[womanofthehills]

66. According to recent Lancet study - elderly make fewer antibodies

To Delta strain with Pfizer vaccine.

Pfizer vaccine recipients have lower antibodies targeting Indian variant, claims Lancet study
Findings of the largest study of its kind also suggest the levels of these antibodies are lower with increasing age and that levels decline over time

Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine leave people with more than five times lower neutralising antibodies – a key part of the immune system – against the Indian variant (Delta) when compared to the original coronavirus strain upon which current vaccines are based, the largest study of its kind suggests.

This antibody response was even lower in people who had only received one dose while the findings also suggest the levels of these antibodies are lower with increasing age and that levels decline over time.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/pfizer-vaccine-recipients-have-lower-antibodies-targeting-indian-variant-claims-lancet-study-1034695

[GulfCoast66]

31. We now have a new paradigm. And we've known it for months.

Communities in cities and Blue areas will and do have good vaccination rates. Some states have good statewide rates.

But in some states like Mississippi and Alabama the rate will never get above 40%. In state like mine, Florida, some counties will get 60-70 or more. Others will be in the low 30’s.

The vaccinated and generally safe are sick of living a reduced life to protect the stupid among us who will not get the jab regardless.

So we will continue to have the unvaccinated die at the same rate as before the vaccine.

So sad. But it’s where we are.

[Elessar Zappa]

35. Exactly.

I’m done wearing a mask unless a business requires it or a variant emerges that dodges the vaccine.

[Ms. Toad]

47. We don't have to live a reduced life if we stop pretending the voluntarily unvaccinated

will voluntarily mask up.

Make it mandatory. Vaccination or mask. No honor code - you have to prove you are vaccinated in order to be exempt from mask orders.

And we are an integrated society. How they behave (and whether they are sick) will impact us -= financially in terms of health insurance/public safety net, health (the more exposures we have - the more likely we will be a breakthrough case - not to mention a substantial population that is cooking the disease will cook up variants we are not immune to).

We treat these voluntarily as if karma will take care of them, or as if their willingness to catch COVID will not impact us, at our own peril.

[GulfCoast66]

59. Not happening in my state.

Not only has the Governor never had a mandate, he has now overruled local jurisdictions in their efforts.

No need pretending like it’s a possibility.

The same people who are refusing masks and vaccines are the ones that voted him into office.

Fuck them, I say.

[Totally Tunsie]

32. In addition to the Memorial Day Weekend, we're now

in the midst of graduation and wedding season. The schools seem to be trying to take adequate protective steps, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to all those graduation parties.

I ran a couple of errands today, masked when not in the car. The auto dealership had no-one wearing masks, but check-in and seating were distanced. At the grocery, I'd say 25% were masked, including both workers and customers. Arrows have been removed from the aisles, as well as the "Wait Here" circles. The only protective measure was the shield at the register.

You'd think we were back to normal...

ETA: Now they're talking about the new Delta Variant that is starting to show up across the U.S. It's apparently more contagious that all the previous strains, with the vaccines lagging behind for this variety. It might well get very dangerous out there again. Still too soon to open up wide.

[Tree Lady]

36. Hubby told me at Costco where last time we went

Only about 10% no mask, yesterday totally opposite only about 10% with a mask he tried to wear one but ended up taking it off feeling weird having it on.

I had asked him to keep wearing until cases went down in our area because of variants but I am sure with most not wearing it he felt odd.

[Totally Tunsie]

44. It did feel strange wearing a mask while so many others weren't,

but, for the time being, I'm going to continue. My concern is that we can't tell who the "mask-holes" are now and who we need to avoid.

Hope your hubby follows your advice. I'd rather wear a mask and feel odd than be on a ventilator.

[StarryNite]

70. Yes, it would feel a lot weirder being on a ventilator.

I'm vaccinated and keeping my mask on in stores. I'm not eating in restaurants either. Takeout yes, eat in, no.

[liberal_mama]

33. It's probably the new Delta strain. In the UK, Delta became the dominant strain very quick

I'm not taking my mask off!

[Music Man]

34. Makes me nervous too.

One thing to note that is going to start making the data look weird is that Florida has begun releasing their Covid statistics weekly instead of daily. That's why yesterday, June 11, showed a *huge* spike in the United States, but they've had to go back and retroactively make June 4 "0 cases." Go figure.

[Hugin]

37. Nebraska has ceased releasing per county data.

As of the end of May.

[Yavin4]

38. Memorial Day weekend reporting was down, and this is the week after.

There's no real cause for concern. There's no real spike in cases, hospitalizations or deaths.

Cases:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths

Hospitalizations are down 16.7% from the prior week and down 87.3% from the peak at the start of the year:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

Deaths:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths

We'll always have cases primarily due to people not wanting to get vaccinated, but the strong link between cases and deaths is broken.

[notpolltested]

41. Holiday to non Holiday reporting

You can't compare Holiday weeks to non Holiday weeks I would follow this guy's charts Monday to Friday evening, which provide much more context for US data.

Link to tweet

?s=19

[Ms. Toad]

46. I'm looking at a several week trend. Not a holiday week to a non-holiday week.

Not to mention that his daily case trend shows exactly the same thing - a dramatic decline in cases that has ground to a halt.

[SoonerPride]

43. Vaccinated breakthrough is extremely rare

Even among the variants.

If you are vaccinated you are fine.

Those unvaccinated have made a choice.

[Ms. Toad]

45. 0-11 year olds CANNOT be vaccinated - so no, at this point, it is NOT a choice.

And part of the reason breakthroughs are rare is because at the time the data was collected, mitigation measures were in effect so those vaccinated had fewer exposures.

Whether you acquire COVID, if you are vaccinated or not, depends on the extent of your exposure. More exposures = more cases - EVEN if you are vaccinated. (Breakthrough cases will be proportionately lower - BUT - as the exposure rises, so will the number of breakthrough cases.)

Finally - there is some evidence that variants are more effective at getting around immunity.

So, no, this s not just a case of I'm protected - too bad you were too stupid to protec ourselves.

We are an integrated system, and what happens to the voluntarily unvaccinated impacts what happens to us. Not to mention that approximately 15% of the population is not yet even eligible to be vaccinated.

[SoonerPride]

48. The data indicates 0-11 year olds face a near zero risk

Facts are your friend.

[Ms. Toad]

50. Death is not the only serious consequnce

Children do NOT face a near zero risk of coming down with COVID, and there are some serious consequences that are specfic to children:

Children, just like adults, develop respiratory failure, myocarditis, shock, acute renal failure, coagulopathy, and multi-organ system failure, intussusception, and diabetic ketoacidosis. In additon, children alone are susecptible for developing Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children. The hospitalizaton rate for children with COVID is between 2.5 and 4% (not near zero), and about 1 third of those required intensive care and another 6% required mechanical ventilation.

This is not a risk they have the option to choose to avoid.

Facts realy are your frends.

[SoonerPride]

52. The CDC guidance is that fully vaccinated people no longer need masks

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/pdfs/choosingSaferAct.pdf?v=1

I am fully vaccinated and no longer will wear a mask.

If the CDC changes their guidance I will adhere to that as well.

The CDC does not say “wear a mask because 5 year olds can get ill.”

Why don’t they say that? Because it is nonsense.

Please stop freaking out over nonsense.

Follow the CDC. They know more than you or I do.

[Ms. Toad]

55. So when the facts aren't on your side,

you just ignore them, and revert to trust the authorities - including authorities who have been wrong at every step ***on issues on which I have been correct***

[SoonerPride]

56. Show me your degree in epidemiology

Then I’ll listen.

Thanks.

[Ms. Toad]

57. Feel free to track my record on these matters

and compare it, issue for issue, with the CIC announcements. Over and over again - on issues such as masking (effectiveness - generally; effectiveness as to protecting te wearer) aerosol transmission, transmission by fomites, etc.

I've never claimed a degree in epidemiology. What I have accurately claimed is that on critical issues as to transmission, at every step of the way, I have been right when the CDC has been wrong.

[Vinca]

49. This will happen when a good chunk of the population refuses to be vaccinated. That's why I'm

not throwing away my masks. I wear one or not depending on the situation. You can't trust anyone and just because the sign says vaccinated people can go maskless doesn't mean everyone without a mask has been vaccinated. The rate of Covid will probably decrease overall over summer when people are outdoors, but increase again in the fall amongst the anti-vaxxers. Hope they enjoy the ICU.

[Treefrog]

54. The "un-masking" is having its effect.

Sadly, I’m not surprised. Glad I’m still seeing a lot of masks around. But less than before.

If I go into a indoor place with other people around, I’m still wearing my mask.

[malaise]

58. K & R

This is not good

[Ace Rothstein]

61. This thread was definitely premature football spiking.

Cases are now down 5.05% for the last 7 days compared to the prior 7 days. The holiday last week definitely skewed the numbers as the poster up thread noted.

[Ms. Toad]

63. Compared to being down 30+% about 3 days ago. n/t

I watch trends, not individual days.